Model Output Discussion

[karyo]

Interestingly Eugene the GFS parallel does away with the Eastern block too.

http://www.meteociel...ode=0&runpara=1

A different way to an Easterly.Push the trough through and build from Iceland.

Model watching is not dull at the moment.

The parallel run is similar to yesterday's operational 12z! Highly unlikely of course as it has a weak ridge from Iceland pushing deep depressions southwards and giving us easterlies!

The 12 UKMO is not what we want to see!

Karyo

[swilliam]

It is quite entertaining flicking through the ensemble members and looking at some of the incredible charts that are appearing in FI. My favourite is the one below which is from member number 10 at + 276.

It shows extensive 1050mb blocking from Scandi to Greenland + a Bartlett high???????

[Don]

I have a horrible feeling that the UKMO will end up being close to the mark. Interesting to watch all the same.

[bluearmy]

The parallel run is similar to yesterday's operational 12z! Highly unlikely of course as it has a weak ridge from Iceland pushing deep depressions southwards and giving us easterlies!

Karyo

as someone pointed out on TWO, the parallel is for the bin as it appears to have been initialised with yesterdays starting data.

[swilliam]

It is quite entertaining flicking through the ensemble members and looking at some of the incredible charts that are appearing in FI. My favourite is the one below which is from member number 10 at + 276.

It shows extensive 1050mb blocking from Scandi to Greenland + a Bartlett high???????

Or the North pole moved South???? (20 +384)

[snowmadchrisuk]

It is quite entertaining flicking through the ensemble members and looking at some of the incredible charts that are appearing in FI. My favourite is the one below which is from member number 10 at + 276.

It shows extensive 1050mb blocking from Scandi to Greenland + a Bartlett high???????

That is the funniest chart I have seen in a long time , Talk about the Uk getting bad luck, knowing our luck that will happen .. :winky:

[weather eater]

as someone pointed out on TWO, the parallel is for the bin as it appears to have been initialised with yesterdays starting data.

Someone on TWO, will that be Brian again, he's fond of saying that there are problems with the data.

[Thundery wintry showers]

For cold fans, I'd would much rather see the southerlies than that UKMO chart. It is progressive and infers Low pressure piling through. Some of the great cold spells came after southerly spells.

Yes I agree 100%.

The UKMO chart in particular suggests the end of the northern blocking. However, I don't think its track record at T+144 is the best. I'm interested to see what ECMWF comes up with but my money would still be on southerlies over Britain for most of early to mid December with HP out to the north and east keeping cold air over the continent.

[Frosty.]

Come on Frosty , this is warm for the time of year .

10-11c is not so mild, we had 13-15c just over a week ago, with the strong winds, 50f would feel chilly. The ukmo 12z is certainly more progressive with low pressure able to push further east rather than being anchored out west as the gfs shows. I prefer the ukmo but i'm not convinced by it.

Edited December 1, 2009 by Frosty039

[karyo]

Yes I agree 100%.

The UKMO chart in particular suggests the end of the northern blocking. However, I don't think its track record at T+144 is the best. I'm interested to see what ECMWF comes up with but my money would still be on southerlies over Britain for most of early to mid December with HP out to the north and east keeping cold air over the continent.

The UKMO looks pretty bad even at 120 hours! Anyway, the ECM will be out pretty soon and let's hope it doesn't join the UKMO!

Karyo

[reef]

That UKMO chart is pretty poor, if there was a T+168 the logical step would be for the low pressure to the south of Greenland to attempt to push in, followed by the Azores high ridging eastwards and connecting with that one over Russia. The result would be a pretty mild spell of damp south-westerlies and one which could last a while.

The GFS as people say is a little better, but when talking of -ve AO and northern blocking, on their own they dont mean much. The problem in recent years in the UK isnt getting northern blocking as such, its getting it in the right place to be condusive to cold spell.

[The PIT]

10-11c is not so mild, we had 13-15c just over a week ago, with the strong winds, 50f would feel chilly. The ukmo 12z is certainly more progressive with low pressure able to push further east rather than being anchored out west as the gfs shows. I prefer the ukmo but i'm not convinced by it.

I think you've been talking to Carol Kirkwood too much. Nothing like temps to be 2c to 3c above normal and that is certainly classed as mild me thinks. Anyway nothign really cold on these runs in the reliable time frame. FI teasing the cold lovers as ever. The only thing I don't like about this GFS run is the lack of storms as they stay stuck in the atlantic. UKMO brings these through so if we're not going to have cold I'll have the UKMO.

[bluearmy]

Someone on TWO, will that be Brian again, he's fond of saying that there are problems with the data.

incorrect this time - just look at the first panel on the parallel 12z run and you'll see that its yesterday's sypnotics with the ridge to our west.

[Frosty.]

UKMO brings these through so if we're not going to have cold I'll have the UKMO.

Agreed, the ukmo 12z is the best solution for a few shots of Pm air further on with more west to east mobility. Having said that, if we could have another GFS 18z like last night I would prefer that.

[snowmadchrisuk]

10-11c is not so mild, we had 13-15c just over a week ago, with the strong winds, 50f would feel chilly. The ukmo 12z is certainly more progressive with low pressure able to push further east rather than being anchored out west as the gfs shows. I prefer the ukmo but i'm not convinced by it.

When you think the Cet for December is 5.1 c (71-2000) Then it is more than double. I would prefer to see the low fill out west and blocking to the east becoming a feature.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=

[Frosty.]

When you think the Cet for December is 5.1 c (71-2000) Then it is more than double. I would prefer to see the low fill out west and blocking to the east becoming a feature.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=

Problem is, the blocking to the east becoming the main feature for the uk is a bit of a fantasy at the moment with the odds probably stacked against it, will it won't it, how many more weeks will we have to wait for it, etc. etc.

[cooling climate]

parallel looks fine to me.

Here's to a cracking 12z ECM run. With a split vortex forcast and a tanking -AO,plus

the MJO still progressing towards the date line, plenty to be optimistic about I think.

[snowmadchrisuk]

parallel looks fine to me.

Here's to a cracking 12z ECM run. With a split vortex forcast and a tanking -AO,plus

the MJO still progressing towards the date line, plenty to be optimistic about I think.

The ECM and GFS couldn't be more different at +144 it looks more like UKMO really.

[karyo]

parallel looks fine to me.

Here's to a cracking 12z ECM run. With a split vortex forcast and a tanking -AO,plus

the MJO still progressing towards the date line, plenty to be optimistic about I think.

Dreadful 12z ECM! Just like the UKMO, it blasts away the block and we're in a southwesterly hell!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

yep not good signs now this was to be expected typical el nino december coming up kiss white christmas goodbye 100% cert of that.

dont need a crystal ball either to see where the start of winter is heading.

[Snowstorm1]

I have a feeling Cough Ian Brown cough will be thinking his luck is in by the view of these dreadful charts imo

[bluearmy]

parallel looks fine to me.

Here's to a cracking 12z ECM run. With a split vortex forcast and a tanking -AO,plus

the MJO still progressing towards the date line, plenty to be optimistic about I think.

parallel is not fine CC - its competely erroneous from T6.

ecm still splitting the p/v quite early, despite it not looking great for us. looks ok to our north so expect some quite cold runs to show on extended de bilt later.

Edited December 1, 2009 by bluearmy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

to be expected really in the christmas pudding, still think we may have a chance of a cold xmas but the first 2 weeks of dec look very mild, just hopefully dry, dreading thursday looks to be heavy rain all day

[snowmadchrisuk]

yep not good signs now this was to be expected typical el nino december coming up kiss white christmas goodbye 100% cert of that.

dont need a crystal ball either to see where the start of winter is heading.

24 days yet , it is way to early to blast away chances of a white Christmas , Fot example if the trough continues to move east then pressure might rise towards Greenland , And with low pressure to our east it is possible it could get very wintry on the big day.

[Yozzer]

The ECM and GFS couldn't be more different at +144 it looks more like UKMO really.

I've long suspected that the UKMO and ECM models are twins, Siamese ones probably...