Model Output Discussion

[cyclonic happiness]

why is the operational run an outlier at 0 hrs?!

Is there some data missing or something?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Anyway, I'm gonna keep the images in this run in my head, as they will keep me going for the rst of the day!!!

OMG what a run!

[Methuselah]

I don't think I'll get excited until any of that approaches the 120hr timeframe...It's nice to see the blues and purples again, though!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

WELL WELL WELL, this morninga f1 is almost identical to last nights 18z, with the set up a lot of us only dream about since the last 15yrs or so , this appeared firstly the day b4 yesterday at the 18z pub run , which by yesterday morning was blown out the water , then came in very strong last night , and again this morning . I said last night we need consitant charts b4 we get exited , but its now shown 3 times in 3 days , even on the runs without the northern blocks , theres still been consistant hights been shown for the last few wks to our north , its on to somethin and in the next wk you will all see that the proof is in the pudding ! WATCH THIS SPACE

[cooling climate]

The ECM at t240 is not that different to the GFS at 240 in the fact that it shows pressure

building to the north.

It will be interesting to see the ensembles.

[snowfish]

WELL WELL WELL, this morninga f1 is almost identical to last nights 18z, with the set up a lot of us only dream about since the last 15yrs or so , this appeared firstly the day b4 yesterday at the 18z pub run , which by yesterday morning was blown out the water , then came in very strong last night , and again this morning . I said last night we need consitant charts b4 we get exited , but its now shown 3 times in 3 days , even on the runs without the northern blocks , theres still been consistant hights been shown for the last few wks to our north , its on to somethin and in the next wk you will all see that the proof is in the pudding ! WATCH THIS SPACE

VERY EXCITING TIMES! What Charts! Let's see...!

[TEITS]

Dave, I think you are just having a bit of fun with these easterly predictions; it looks must unlikely that we are going to see the low heights to our West going anywhere in the short to medium term.

The set-up is just what Western Britain does not need at the moment.

No im quiet serious about a severe E,ly outbreak occuring.

The GFS seems very keen in developing some impressive N blocking around +240 and as you know this timeframe is where trends emerge. Some will think this is typical GFS fantasy charts but so far this isn't your typical early Dec pattern. The combination of weak PV, much higher heights around the pole makes N blocking plausible.

Take a look at the AO ensembles.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

I would say the odds of bitterly cold spell developing around mid month are the same as remaining unsettled and mild.

[Methuselah]

New thread up-and-running, peeps...

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=post&section=post&do=new_post&f=1

Will leave this one open for a wee while.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

All I will ask is, have we really not seen these types of charts in deep FI in the last ten years ? Or is it a bit of a case of selective memory ??? When the outcome is so desirable it is all too easy to see the evolution as appearing very plausible. At this stage I remain very much with IB, the reliable looks absolutely typical (if perhaps slightly wetter) December weather, and unfortunately I expect to see a regular appearance of phrases like 'if only the jet would play ball.......', 'the trough is just too far west...........', 'pressure just too low around the GIN corridor......', 'stubborn Euro heights..........' etc, (or to paraphrase, 'if only........' !!!), over the next two weeks.