Model Output Discussion

[Snowstorm1]

:lol: :lol: :rofl:

Sorry Ian. I do take the christmas pudding quite seriously...But that was funny! :lol:

Very funny Ian saying that something amazing must be happenning that is the first time this winter he has said something positive about cold

[kold weather]

However, looking at everything today, I think the chances of an easterly are increasing, although it remains an outsider. Lots to watch over the coming days.

I'm not so sure the chances for an easterly are really increasing just yet, the 06z ensembles that did bring in an evolution that has an easterly do so through a very unusual manner, and in essence have the building high split in two with a low dropping nearly SSE then a new high blows up in response over Greenland and manages to slide a easterly flow in as the low draws into SE Europe. All seems rather unlikely given most models are suggesting high pressure could be very stubborn, plus that evolution would need a big overhaul of the current Atlantic trough.

The good news, the 12z looks better already, much stronger looking high and placed better for inversions...

Edited December 4, 2009 by kold weather

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

As it contains a disclaimer aswell, perhaps it is a modern ramp.

I had a few hours without looking at this thread and it's just provided me with the best laugh I've had for a while. :lol:

Ian, apart from your use of the word modern, I think you speak a lot of sense.

I think it's great that the people on here have a sense of humour that gently takes the mickey without being nasty

Thanks all

Back on track for a moment, does someone have a link for the GFS Paralell run output? I thought I saw it a few days ago, but don't seem to be able to find it

[Iceberg]

WAA and Jet in the right place it's a good run upto 168 and shows again how likely at least a settled spell is and an end to the atlantic.

I had a few hours without looking at this thread and it's just provided me with the best laugh I've had for a while. :lol:

Ian, apart from your use of the word modern, I think you speak a lot of sense.

I think it's great that the people on here have a sense of humour that gently takes the mickey without being nasty

Thanks all

Back on track for a moment, does someone have a link for the GFS Paralell run output? I thought I saw it a few days ago, but don't seem to be able to find it

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1

It's only just started coming out, and if Paul is watching, can NW have it ?

[Matt12345]

<snip>If its gonna happen the window is there between day 11 & 15-

Steve

Thanks Steve for the great read. Lots of model information there for a newbie like me to learn from. This really makes a change from many random

posts, especially the ups and downs. Good straight to point information.

Edited December 4, 2009 by shuggee
No need to quote the whole post :-)

[cooling climate]

This run has the hall marks of a classic.

[Dingwantssnow]

Sorry to intrude but can some one tell a newbie like me what WAA is??

Thanks

DWS

[cyclonic happiness]

The run is looking really good, and the ehem! "easterly" has moved a bit further forward to 192+ hrs http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=192 just going into the low resolution of the run, and mega amounts of northern blocking too.

I feel a little more confident about getting a cold spell now (well untill the 18z)

[Matt12345]

This run has the hall marks of a classic.

A classic? What bar of chocolate? Please explain so newbies like me can begin to understand the models. Is it a classic mild run? I presume you

mean cold..

Thank you.

[kold weather]

A far better run from the 12z GFS, the key thing is not what happens with any easterly it shows after 180hrs, but more to the point that the high gets far enough north to give us settled and hopefully inversion based weather.

I for one would like to the ECM follow the 12z GFS in respect to allowing the first high to get far enough north to set the blocks, as the 0z ECM needs two bites of the cherry to get there.

[snowmadchrisuk]

This run has the hall marks of a classic.

Well GFS 12z , Let the Ramping begin . Smashing block and a Smashing easterly to follow.

Oh and it starts earlier than on this mornings Parallel .

Edited December 4, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[Iceberg]

After we get the WAA and Jet in the right place (at 168 so maybe not too far in FI) Cold is the only real option, and this is indeed and very cold and realistic run.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well GFS 12z , Let the Ramping begin . Smashing block and a Smashing easterly to follow.

And the jet is going on holiday to gibraltar later in the run!! Let's build a massive ramp up "the rock" there Chris?

[DAVID SNOW]

Well GFS 12z , Let the Ramping begin . Smashing block and a Smashing easterly to follow.

What a nice shape that HP is at 228 hours

[Eugene]

Pressure building from the south later next week

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

Then we get this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

Edited December 4, 2009 by Eugene

[kold weather]

Looks rather similar to the control run of the 06z this morning, a great run though massivly different from the 06z...so you can really see the two extremes, with the 06z showing maxes 11C at 240hrs, the 12z GFS has maxes of 0-2C at 240hrs. The truth is just about anything can happen, I personally think the best idea to take is a down the middle approach for now.

[Rollo]

Here we go again-chances but thats all at present.

[Methuselah]

Only two words on the 12Z...YES PLEASE!!!

[reef]

Sorry to intrude but can some one tell a newbie like me what WAA is??

Thanks

DWS

It means 'warm air advection' - basically a plume of warmer air moving from one place to another.

GFS 12z looks promising and would be very snowy if it were to materialise. The building blocks are there and easterlies are quite common in El Nino Decembers (aka 1997, 2002). It will be interesting to see the ensembles whether it has support.

[Iceberg]

This is a completely cold setup to the one several days ago, that was really built on sand and fantasy, the building blocks for this are approaching the reliable timeframe which gives it at least part of a chance.

[snowmadchrisuk]

And the jet is going on holiday to gibraltar later in the run!! Let's build a massive ramp up "the rock" there Chris?

Yep , and with the way the Jet is it is sending all the Atlantic low's SE and there warm cores as well , so the cold air wins out over the uk . Looking at temps as well daytime temps would remain below freezing in that sort of Easterly flow.

[Iceberg]

The alternative GFS run is very similar to the 12Z ops out to 168Z, which is good and ECM agreement would be great.

[kold weather]

Yeah Iceberg it is a more realisitic evolution, one that has happened before, though granted the only one that managed to complete the evolution through to its logical conclusion (which is a Greenland high, and a roaring southerly jet) was Feb 2005, it'd probably be a strong enough set-up to see us through xmas if it happened. Still I have a big doubts given the models have been too far west in the last 2 weeks with many different things.

[memories of 63]

I'll add my two penneth.

Wow what a run. Xmas coning early and the north pole shifting to Leeds

After the last couple of runs this is a belter. Memories of '63 indeed

I'm going out to celebrate

[Mark Bayley]

GFS parallel is also looking good !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

Interesting times ahead, but caution required !