Model Output Discussion

[Backtrack]

That Easterly is shows is a repeat from the last FI although this one seems... More real. It will downgrade but I hope we do get something similar because that is a long lasting cold spell... Would ensure many got a nice covering of white gold on Christmas day.

[The PIT]

LOL a moderated beast from the east in deep FI land. I won't take much interest until it's poking around T96 time. In reliable time fram with T96 it's looking unsettled and breezy and windy for the North West. Temps around to above average.

Fi hints the atlantic may stall but tomorrows run may say different.

[SMU]

A very quick flick through the ensembles on meteociel and a good few show a easterly or

northeasterly etc with blocking to the north.

I wonder if Steve Murr is going to give an in depth view of the 12z or perhaps he is

hedging his bets until the ECM run is in.

I myself am very confident that the ECM will back up the 12z GFS run.

With such a strong signal coming from the models now I think we are only a couple of days

away from the models just dealing with the details rather than will it or wont it turn much

colder.

No real 12Z summary - the post I made earlier reflected exacltly what we needed- then low & behold the GFS op & parallel swung massive towards good angled atlantic ridging & cold sweeping west-

Chart of the day for me- possibly a little progressive, but at least its there & the ECM if inline will have something at 168 or 192

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

this is why likes of myself / GP etc go on & on & on about higher pressure ( note the + 552 DAM line ) over svalbard- it doesnt guarentee UK cold- but at least it ensures the cold is coming in the right direction......

A good PM today- lets not peak to soon.....

Steve

Edited December 4, 2009 by Steve Murr

[J10]

This is a completely cold setup to the one several days ago, that was really built on sand and fantasy, the building blocks for this are approaching the reliable timeframe which gives it at least part of a chance.

That is a very good point, the building blocks are indeed there from T+168, which makes this at least possible.

Of course, I think we all know that so many things can go wrong, even at shorter time frames, as to get too excited, yet.

The operational run is not an outlier but certainly one of the colder options, with a very large range of options past the 12th December.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

the NH plot of the UKMO at T144 isnt far from GFS way to our ne which is significant. IF ecm heads in this direction on the 12z, i'm not sure the seasoned cool heads on here will be able to control the masses. of course, many have posted that if an easterly does come within a decent timeframe, it will often be a surprise. this one is rather a shock having appeared at a timeframe similar to the one originally shown by ECM T240 at the start of the week, only to dissapear and only recur on this weeks GFS runs beyond T300.

[SMU]

The December CET in FI is running below zero....... if only

S

[snowmadchrisuk]

In terms of Northern blocking, it look's very similar to the 12Z GFS does it not? The high is slightly further east on the UKMO but whether that makes a difference or not, we will never know unfortunately.

There does appear to be a trend that high pressure might take over soon but it's very difficult to know whether the high will lead to a cold spell down the line or not.

Also, don't be disappointed if the ECM does not follow suit, you can't expect all models runs to look the same at such a lengthy timescale. conversely, don't expect an easterly to be "nailed on" if it does incredibly shows something like the GFS.

IMO the Atlantic trough is to far east on it , and Gfs has blocking as far west as Greenland at +144 . The UKMO in my oppinion could end up with a bartlett , but hope I am wrong , and it is not exactly the best model anyway in these situations. The only person that we will have to bow our heads to if this came off would be TEITS .

Edited December 4, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[The PIT]

No real 12Z summary - the post I made earlier reflected exacltly what we needed- then low & behold the GFS op & parallel swung massive towards good angled atlantic ridging & cold sweeping west-

Chart of the day for me- possibly a little progressive, but at least its there & the ECM if inline will have something at 168 or 192

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

this is why likes of myself / GP etc go on & on & on about higher pressure ( note the + 552 DAM line ) over svalbard- it doesnt guarentee UK cold- but at least it ensures the cold is coming in the right direction......

A good PM today- lets not peak to soon.....

Steve

Steve you do realise you now killed it stone dead by posting that.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The December CET in FI is running below zero....... if only

S

LOL Steve.

Wouldnt it be ironic that a SPanish based high could be the one to halt the Atlantic in its racks.

As TAmara and others have said,the blocking is there up north,if we can get rid of that ruddy atalantic

trough we could hit bingo.

PS I normally HATE these kind of spanish/french highs in winter,they normally head east.

Edited December 4, 2009 by happy days

[Tn9]

The jet is the the golden key here i think,heights to our east are there,if the models keep the jet south then i think an Easterly is a forgone conclusion,if it dont i think we will miss this window of opportunity,for the time being

[DAVID SNOW]

The December CET in FI is running below zero....... if only

S

And that would give us a sub 10 on the annual CET.(faces mecca )

[pyrotech]

THE TREND CONTINUES !!!

Nothing for Uk is guaranteed yet as deep in Fi but the cold to Europe is now becoming odds on.

The low that would make it exceptional, that i metioned yesterday has appeared, nice to see but not going to hold any straws just yet.t

If similar shown after the weekend for Uk then i can start to hope. Till then not even worth worrying as even 12 hrs can change things when it comes to cold here.

Those fi charts in GFS are going to make this forum crazy. Essembles seem to agree. Russia has some very low temps.

Two good things come from Russia - quality vodka and quality winter cold.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think the GFS is developing the set-up too quickly, but it shows the territory that we could be heading towards. With heights clearly expected to rise in the Svalbard region, it opens the game up in a way that has been denied to us so often in the christmas pudding.

Ian,i love you.

Joking aside im logging off for a few days if we're back in the morning to scorching south westerlies and enough rain

to make noah's flooding look like a spot of drizzle.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just a quick 1 off chart here as it is relevant , CFS has gone Easterly crazy , with a cold Easterly persisting on Christmas Day.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just dont want me or anyone else to be disappointed when the beast disappears on the 18Z, but main thing is the pressure rise for 10th-11th period is still showing

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

sensational nogps run.

[chionomaniac]

Far better profile from the GFS strat forecast for 100hPa. I wished that I had looked at it earlier!

Fits in nicely with the blocking forecasts as well!

GFS jigsaw coming together nicely. Awaiting ECM pieces now!

c

[Lewis]

Just a quick 1 off chart here as it is relevant , CFS has gone Easterly crazy , with a cold Easterly persisting on Christmas Day.

Kind of backs up the GFS in FI as that too shows a "Best from the East" trying to establish.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Kind of backs up the GFS in FI as that too shows a "Best from the East" trying to establish.

Yes the CFS takes it into Europe first around the 13th , and brings the cold air west enough to effect the Uk by 17th. I Know the CFS is useless but nice to see it agreeing with the models in what is a very early time frame for the CFS .

[bluearmy]

the evolution has been there for days. it all depended on the jet and the atlantic. it might all change back to the trough to our west and the cold either dropping into e europe and greece or the trough over us with the cold into the western atlantic. the NOAA cpc charts this evening will be good with what appears to be an easterly flow. however, its too early to be certain exactly when the trough will stop splurting energy ne and instead go se, and also how the high that develops to our south will behave. it might stick around too long for us and drive the cold to our east.

at the moment, Nick's call from the past day or so looks good re the euro height rise. roll on the split vortex.

sm - is Plymouth early with the ecm charts or do meteociel show at the same time ??

Edited December 4, 2009 by bluearmy

[londonsnow]

very interesting 12z. its friday so the pub run's on me! i guess we shall be chopping and changing towards mid to late december, but signs are promising.

[SMU]

the evolution has been there for days. it all depended on the jet and the atlantic. it might all change back to the trough to our west and the cold either dropping into e europe and greece or the trough over us with the cold into the western atlantic. the NOAA cpc charts this evening will be good with what appears to be an easterly flow. however, its too early to be certain exactly when the trough will stop splurting energy ne and instead go se, and also how the high that develops to our south will behave. it might stick around too long for us and drive the cold to our east.

at the moment, Nick's call from the past day or so looks good re the euro height rise. roll on the split vortex.

sm - is Plymouth early with the ecm charts or do meteociel show at the same time ??

A little early but you have to build them yourself.......

S

[bluearmy]

A little early but you have to build them yourself.......

S

in which case, can i order a scandi block extending west into greeny with a trough from from northern spain across to the balkans :lol:

[phil nw.]

Quite a sight look at the forecasted NH view at T168hrs.

The vortex almost split in two halves and good Polar heights.

A very uncommon pattern for December.

If that verifies there,s only one direction the Jet will go and that,s under the block.

Edited December 4, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[Backtrack]

Just a quick 1 off chart here as it is relevant , CFS has gone Easterly crazy , with a cold Easterly persisting on Christmas Day.

Great!

Just what I wanted!

The building blocks are starting to fall into place!