Model Output Discussion

[Mark Bayley]

FI looks like its going to be good

[cooling climate]

Give it another few runs and I think that troublesome shortwave at t144 will be downgraded or

the model will ditch it altogether.

If this does happen it will bring the colder air in quicker but we still need a trigger for the bitterly

cold air to the ne.

lol I see that the troublesome low is the trigger for the bitterly cold air avecting southwestwards.

Edited December 6, 2009 by cooling climate

[Cal]

Forum meltdown?

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2522.png

Happy days! wax them sledges!

[Iceberg]

Fully admit it's a stonking run, with the atlantic moving backwards at the 240Z range and a full on arctic freeze occuring, the problem is that is totally different to the last run !.

[Cal]

For cold & snow it's as good as it gets

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-276.png?12

[chionomaniac]

Split vortex synoptic heaven that one.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well F1 is fantastic from a cold fans point of view this time. Hope to see a similar trend later on this evening. Fingers crossed.

[weather eater]

This is going to be a stonking run-

remember we need that icelandic trigger low- as the rush of WAA runs up the western side of greenland then its got nowhere to go but back south......

were now at the day 9 status.....

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-216.png?12

S

Yep Steve those differences have made a huge change further down the line and although I've tried not to look I see the Promised Land through my fingers.

[kold weather]

Yep looks like a bit of a cracker there, the shortwave that I was talking about ends up bringing in a much colder arctic flow:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

We need that shortwave to cut off...if it does then we will almost certainly have some sort of colder airflow, its just to what degree and what extent.

What a STUNNER of a run this is, very similar to some of the Paralell runs that have been put out recently.

Would be nice for the ECM to agree with this but we shall see.

[winter watcher]

This is going to be a stonking run-

remember we need that icelandic trigger low- as the rush of WAA runs up the western side of greenland then its got nowhere to go but back south......

were now at the day 9 status.....

http://91.121.94.83/...nh-0-216.png?12

S

I am also really loveing this run steve note how the hp moves a tad north to allow us southerners to drag in even colder air down the line.

[nick sussex]

This is going to be a stonking run-

remember we need that icelandic trigger low- as the rush of WAA runs up the western side of greenland then its got nowhere to go but back south......

were now at the day 9 status.....

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-216.png?12

S

Agreed it does get there in the end but for me again its another delay to allow more variables to scupper the whole thing, even saying this though even before the possible main event some cold upper air does get into the UK so not bad and down here looks possibly wintry so why am i moaning?

Edited December 6, 2009 by nick sussex

[David-kig]

thats just an outlier got 2 be lmao

[weather eater]

Not sure I can look much further its making my eyes water.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

thats just an outlier got 2 be lmao

You're probably right, too good to be true. Even the jet is way way south, its running through North Africa!

[kold weather]

Nick, IF we don't get the cutoff shortwave, then we will NOT get anything even close to the 12z evolution, instead we'd probably get a high that sits and is eventually forced back southwards by the jet, if that shortwave doesn't enhance WAA then we don't get no Greenland/Iceland high and all the cold will end up in the med instead...however your quite right Nick its something else that could go wrong...but this set-up it really is all or nothing to be honest...well even the nothing probably means cold inversion, but ya get my drift!

The three variables IMO:

1: No Shortwave occurs, probably keep the HP close to Scandinavia but the coldest air will probably be funneled to our south

2:The shortwave remains attached to the Vortex, in that case we once again keep the high pressure in place BUT its only a matter of time before the jet powers up too much.

3:The shortwave cutsoff and rounds the upper high, plunging SSE and introducing much colder air to Europe, with a greater chance of the UK latching onto it, plus -ve NAO as well.

[SMU]

You're probably right, too good to be true. Even the jet is way way south, its running through North Africa!

Bet no-one has picked this up-

Snow into the SE in the high res..

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-180.png?12

all good stuff- lets not get to carried away though......

S

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

From a learning point of view could someone tell me which colours refer to snow/rain etc. Thanks. I see these charts a lot and often wondered.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2644.png

[Methuselah]

A true stonker! Let's just hope it comes off!!!!!

[winter watcher]

thats just an outlier got 2 be lmao

I would not be so quick to dismiss this run. See steves post this morning saying about how 300 miles makes all the diffrence. Lets see what the ecm has to say if its as half as good as this we are deffinteley onto something.

[Nick L]

From a learning point of view could someone tell me which colours refer to snow/rain etc. Thanks. I see these charts a lot and often wondered.

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn2644.png

Doesn't show precipitation type, just all precipitation. The red dots indicate where convection is likely to occur - ie. showers.

[The Eagle]

Retrogression is the best hope now IMO. Models seem to be settling on HP being on top of us between 144 and 168hrs - it's a question of where it goes. GL please.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Doesn't show precipitation type, just all precipitation. The red dots indicate where convection is likely to occur - ie. showers.

Thanks mate

[Alex95]

GFS FI is surely having a laugh! That is the dream setup as far for the North East, reminds me of the 50-60cm falls that occurred during February 1979 This run has given me further hope, and I'm now confident that a significant cold snap is on the horizon. It will probably be of an easterly type, but whether it is very snowy like the 12z GFS would have us believe, or similar to last New Year a la 6z I don't know. Either way I'm quite happy but I'd prefer the snowy one. I'm not ruling out the high pressure being suppressed giving a mild westerly flow, but I think that this is less likely than a cold snap.

[Mark Bayley]

GFS parallel is also very good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1