Cold Spell General Discussion

[Nights King]

Not necessarily, convective snow showers will be concentrated in the east, but if any persistent snow comes along it may reach the west. Also as low pressure systems come up against the easterly flow the west would probably face the brunt of the snow. Even if a cold spell gets nailed on by, say, the weekend, it might still be unclear where the most snow is likely to fall until it has already started. Back in February the east was forecast the most snow, but in the end large parts of the South west got deeper snow than large parts of the East (55cm or thereabouts in Okehampton)

Yes it is possible but unusual to be honest. I have seen a few easterly blasts and most yield next to nothing snow wise for west country. That massive event was a freak though normaly it is just cold frosty with chance of a slight flurry. Often when a front comes in the west gets rain because we are on wrong side of the battle ground with cold air diging in further east.

[Nick L]

Hey Guys,

Im really sorry, but when i look at these charts together im a little confused as to what they are.

Erm, what i mean is they are both 12Z charts and at the same time (Mon 14 Dec 06:00). Is 1 a pub run? I dont even know what is either lol

Right, the GFS model runs 4 times a day. They are the 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z which start to be released at 3.30am, 9.30am, 3.30pm and 9.30pm respectively. The 18z is known as the "pub run" because of the time it is released and it's tendancy to show some insanely extreme charts on occasion. Hope that helps

[Thundery wintry showers]

5/6 February 2009 was not an easterly- it was actually a northerly, with Atlantic systems locking against the cold air over SW England, containing the remnants of modified cold air from the east on 2 February.

Easterly incursions can bring the West Country its biggest snowstorms but it relies upon Atlantic systems stalling over the SW, as per mid to late February 1978. Otherwise it typically ends up cold and sunny with just isolated showers. 2nd February 2009 was noteworthy in that some snow showers made it over to the SW, giving an inch in Exeter, but that requires quite a potent blast in terms of both temperature and shower activity.

[Tucco]

Not necessarily, convective snow showers will be concentrated in the east, but if any persistent snow comes along it may reach the west. Also as low pressure systems come up against the easterly flow the west would probably face the brunt of the snow. Even if a cold spell gets nailed on by, say, the weekend, it might still be unclear where the most snow is likely to fall until it has already started. Back in February the east was forecast the most snow, but in the end large parts of the South west got deeper snow than large parts of the East (55cm or thereabouts in Okehampton)

No mention of Oakehampton 55cm on Meto review of the event. Not sure if this depth was authenticated.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited December 7, 2009 by Tucco

[Cheese Rice]

No mention of Oakehampton 55cm on Meto review of the event. Not sure if this depth was authenticated.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

I do recall watching a BBC forecast and the highest depth chart was shown and Okehampton was shown with 55cm.

[Tucco]

I do recall watching a BBC forecast and the highest depth chart was shown and Okehampton was shown with 55cm.

I can recall that as well but there is no mention of the Oakehampton depth in the Meto review. Which is surprising when 'amateur' measurements are mentioned. Images from nearby Oakehampton showed depths around 25cm ish.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/feb2009/

Oakehampton Camp is just over 400m asl but this does appear a large jump in depth.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited December 7, 2009 by Tucco

[Nick L]

I can recall that as well but there is no mention of the Oakehampton depth in the Meto review. Which is surprising when 'amateur' measurements are mentioned. Images from nearby Oakehampton showed depths around 25cm ish.

http://www.metoffice...esting/feb2009/

Oakehampton Camp is just over 400m asl but this does appear a large jump in depth.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Wow, on that list on the 6th of Feb, the exact place I was staying on the Geography trip is mentioned (Nettlecombe!). Says 30cm, but I thought it was around 20cm.

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes it was defiently Okehampton who got the deepest snow depth. I got 3 snowfalls in 5 days which totalled up to about 30cm, but between each fall, some of the snow melted

[Harsh Climate]

Just seen the odds for a white xmas in london 10-1.. Think I might place a bet tommorow hehe... before they get wind of the latest developements.

[Nick L]

Just seen the odds for a white xmas in london 10-1.. Think I might place a bet tommorow hehe... before they get wind of the latest developements.

Put a tenner on that and you could get quite a nice Christmas present

[Harsh Climate]

Put a tenner on that and you could get quite a nice Christmas present

Ye 10 or 20 I just hope that tommorows not too late before they slash them odds....

[Nick L]

Ye 10 or 20 I just hope that tommorows not too late before they slash them odds....

Just make sure you get in there before the Daily Express hears about it...

[Harsh Climate]

Ye should be alright tommorow

[kold weather]

A cold snap is a certainty now, with the high over the UK we should see frost probably quite widely and depending on fog perhaps surpressed maxes as well, wouldn't shock me to see freezing fog even in some places. Maxes outside the fog probably not far from average between 5-7C, but in fog then anything from 0-2C seems quite probable...and I'll bet there will be a lot of fog about as well.

[Mark Bayley]

A cold snap is a certainty now, with the high over the UK we should see frost probably quite widely and depending on fog perhaps surpressed maxes as well, wouldn't shock me to see freezing fog even in some places. Maxes outside the fog probably not far from average between 5-7C, but in fog then anything from 0-2C seems quite probable...and I'll bet there will be a lot of fog about as well.

Hope we get some fog, i love walking to the bus stop in he morning in thick freezing fog But even some frosts will make me happy. I wonder what will happen after this settled spell

(Heres hoping !!)

Edited December 7, 2009 by mark bayley

[surfersparks]

Just make sure you get in there before the Daily Express hears about it...

Theres something in the wind...Paul Hudson said on Radio Humberside earlier he's put £20.00 at 8-1 on a white christmas :-)

[Nights King]

5/6 February 2009 was not an easterly- it was actually a northerly, with Atlantic systems locking against the cold air over SW England, containing the remnants of modified cold air from the east on 2 February.

Easterly incursions can bring the West Country its biggest snowstorms but it relies upon Atlantic systems stalling over the SW, as per mid to late February 1978. Otherwise it typically ends up cold and sunny with just isolated showers. 2nd February 2009 was noteworthy in that some snow showers made it over to the SW, giving an inch in Exeter, but that requires quite a potent blast in terms of both temperature and shower activity.

In other words west country will see cold frosty weather unless you get a fluke of a rogue shower. It really is quite rare for the frontal snow to hit us here. Normaly the battle of cold/mild is in the midlands/middle southern england and at best we get transitional snow as mild air moves in which is a short lived and mainly over high ground event. I will still enjoy it though with my hard frosts and possible ice days.

[Ben_Cambs]

I dont know yet if it will snow and how much of it could fall. The cold spell will start out settled with frosts every night, and possibly fog, as we approach Christmas, snow is more possible especially in the North and East, but snow cant be ruled out anywhere, so a white Xmas is a good possibility at this time

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A cold snap is a certainty now, with the high over the UK we should see frost probably quite widely and depending on fog perhaps surpressed maxes as well, wouldn't shock me to see freezing fog even in some places. Maxes outside the fog probably not far from average between 5-7C, but in fog then anything from 0-2C seems quite probable...and I'll bet there will be a lot of fog about as well.

thurs-sun now, reckon it will be clear? hope it is for frost, fog and rime (if lucky) it could be a cloudy high, then not cold really

[disco-barry]

Unofficially we had a foot of snow here in Slaithwaite, West Yorkshire and on Look North news they we're live in Slaithwaite saying we had the deepest laying snow in Yorkshire. *not drifting*

[Optimus Prime]

May well see a forecast looking something like this mid month;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vae_rVLlyw4

Good fantasy stuff going on.

[kold weather]

Its hard to know whether the skies will be clear or not, I suspect however that there will be plenty of fog one way or the other, and if thats the case then the models will likely get caught out as they have a poor handling of fog it seems, as stephen said a few days ago I suspect the GFS takes fog to be low cloud and there is an obvious difference with regards to our temperatures. Should be masses of moisture about for the fog to form and also possibly some hard frosts if temps drop low enough.

[Cheese Rice]

Didn't something similar happen last year before the Dec/Jan cold snap? Everything pretty much fell apart and all chances of snow diminished at the last minute, so i would say a bit of caution is needed otherwise there may be alot of un-happy members on here. Or we could well see one of the best cold periods in a long time .

Edited December 7, 2009 by 10123

[Snowyowl9]

Re the feb 5th easterly or not it was just a S-ly tracking low which gave a N/NE on the day.

Still one of the colder N/NE winds in recent februarys not getting above 0c

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090206.gif

February 2005 temps went above lowest max 1.4c in a N/NE wind

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050224.gif

It was snowing on both days with drifting snow also thats the main thing.

[Wales123098]

If I was honest the details will never be sorted out until we are +72hrs away. However I will repeat what I said earlier about potential blizzards in the SW/Wales. If we do see a Greenland block with LP systems tracking to the S then locations such as SW/Wales could be at risk. Many people think that the SW England escapes cold, snow which at times is true. However some of the most famous blizzards to hit the UK have actually occured in SW England/S Wales.

Before anyone accuses me of ramping this scenario has been shown on the GEFS ensembles which isn't surprising considering the overall synoptics.

Under the Feb 09 set up, here in the hills of northern Cardiff we had 12inches of snow and in places 2ft drifts. The SW/s.wales got the heaviest snow fall amounts in the U.K. So totaly agree, you only want a rain band pushing up from the Atlantic meeting the cold east winds and bang, snow storm, i can remember feb 2009 well, im 15 and ive never seen anything like it, it was comeing down thicker than id seen it come down in New England, USA.

Edited December 7, 2009 by Wales123098