Cold Spell General Discussion

[JRMcLeod]

Well i doubt the BBC will mention anything of it right up until the christmas forecast, they are more interested in being a media company than a forecasting service...the best place to find out the weather is from the members on here!!!

[kold weather]

Friday could see some pretty surpressed maxes in the fog, wouldn't be all that surprised to see central parts of England struggle to get above 3C, much depends on how low the mins can go but if we can get close to 0C we will struggle above 2-3C thats for sure. So keep an eye on that IMO.

[i luv snow]

A bit harsh maybe? True, if the "even larger teapot" theory is taken as an absolute (something that would never allow cold/snow to happen) then the above would be true. But in the real world, while it isn't that absolute there is a lot of truth behind it. The warming of the Northern Hemisphere has definitely led to atmospheric circulation changes in the NH of the sort that Ian frequently describes, and alongside the higher temperature baseline it contributes towards making cold/snow events fewer, shorter and further between. One cold snap would not refute the even larger teapot concept outright- we would need the recent changes in synoptics to reverse over a period of time. Last winter did not behave synoptically as most recent winters have, but whether that was a blip remains to be seen.To be honest I'm amazed that we're looking almost certain to see extensive northern blocking at this time of year, in an El Nino winter, in a climatic era characterised by lack of northern blocking, even if the potential cold snowy easterly that might result from it downgrades to nothing

I was reading a Readers Digest fact book published in 1976 the other day, noting the unprecented cold and the theory that the climate was getting cooler and and we were heading back to an Ice age... a very plausible and interesting theory at the time...I believe many of you could do with reading it?! Obviously the 90's/00's pushed that whole theory out of the window, and it got replaced with another. I think we need to stop looking for patterns and start ignoring the now proven biased information we are given by so called 'climate experts' and just accept that the weather will do exactly as it wants to....<br /><br />Back to the models though - and it's looking much more positive now imo, and alot closer to the timeframe. Still a couple more says to go to be certain, being in EA this setup certainly does make me sit up and take notice. But note, Im not going to get too excited yet!

Edited December 8, 2009 by i luv snow

[MR EXTREMES]

It's just to much, once again we are faced with a true cold spell. I so very much want to jump on board the snowfest rollercoaster, but experience tells me to not get excited.

i agree already reading the downgrades.

and then theres this.

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Dec 2009 to Tuesday 22 Dec 2009:

After a cold and frosty start, this Sunday will be dry and fair across much of the United Kingdom, although patches of fog are likely to linger for much of the day across some inland areas. From Monday to Wednesday, the mainly dry, cold and settled weather is expected to continue in the south and west, while it turns increasing breezy and showery towards the north and east. For the rest of the period, it's likely to turn even colder with widespread frost at night and a mix of sunshine and scattered wintry showers by day. The showers should be generally most prevalent towards the north and east of Britain, where they are likely to fall increasingly as sleet or snow, even to low levels by next weekend.

Updated: 1255 on Tue 8 Dec 2009

[Cal]

i agree already reading the downgrades.

and then theres this.

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Dec 2009 to Tuesday 22 Dec 2009:

After a cold and frosty start, this Sunday will be dry and fair across much of the United Kingdom, although patches of fog are likely to linger for much of the day across some inland areas. From Monday to Wednesday, the mainly dry, cold and settled weather is expected to continue in the south and west, while it turns increasing breezy and showery towards the north and east. For the rest of the period, it's likely to turn even colder with widespread frost at night and a mix of sunshine and scattered wintry showers by day. The showers should be generally most prevalent towards the north and east of Britain, where they are likely to fall increasingly as sleet or snow, even to low levels by next weekend.

Updated: 1255 on Tue 8 Dec 2009

Cracking MetO update at midday today, confidence has to be rising on a cold spell for next week, i'd rate it as 60-40 in favour at the moment :ph34r:

[ribster]

Not model discussion as such, but as Steve asked:

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Dec 2009 to Tuesday 22 Dec 2009:

After a cold and frosty start, this Sunday will be dry and fair across much of the United Kingdom, although patches of fog are likely to linger for much of the day across some inland areas. From Monday to Wednesday, the mainly dry, cold and settled weather is expected to continue in the south and west, while it turns increasing breezy and showery towards the north and east. For the rest of the period, it's likely to turn even colder with widespread frost at night and a mix of sunshine and scattered wintry showers by day. The showers should be generally most prevalent towards the north and east of Britain, where they are likely to fall increasingly as sleet or snow, even to low levels by next weekend.

Updated: 1255 on Tue 8 Dec 2009

[Harsh Climate]

Just placed my bet on a white xmas in London, lucky still to get 8-1 :ph34r:

[Weather-history]

Just watched the BBC news online and John Hammond said things get really interesting beyond next weekend but would say no more.

[kold weather]

There seems enough support from the models to at least stick thier necks out on the line now, of course even the ECM is fairly wintry in the SE...

Anyway I'm willing to bet a lot of people will be surprised by how cold the few days between say Friday-Monday will be, I can see some areas that get stubborn fog struggling in a big way, indeed I really wouldn't be all that surprised to see some places only reach 2C during that period...as there is little to get rid of the fog.

In fact, I suspect locally we would see colder temps then we would from an easterly of decent substance at this time of year given the state of the north sea temps.

[londonsnow]

interesting little flirt with the idea of a cold blast on the beeb lunchtime forecast

[Optimus Prime]

John Hammond said things get really interesting beyond next weekend but would say no more.

[karyo]

I'm loving the Met Office further update. They seem to go with the UKMO and GFS! This update has gone increasingly colder and wintrier in the last few days!

Karyo

[Nights King]

shame they only mention the north and east though.

I just got back from town after trying to put a bet on a white xmas and they had slashed the odds to 4-1 so i didnt bother.

[cj114]

Has anyone seen Joe B's video on Accuweather? called "You're freezing if you are European".

Interesting, worth a look anyway. It ties in with what most people are saying here.

[Paul Sherman]

Nice to see the Cold Spell Discussion is keeping on topic :unsure:

What the distance between Cumbria/Glasgow & London has to do with the upcoming Cold Spell in beyond me but..........

If you guys could try to keep on topic it would be much appreciated

Paul S :lol:

[Nights King]

Has anyone seen Joe B's video on Accuweather? called "You're freezing if you are European".

Interesting, worth a look anyway. It ties in with what most people are saying here.

Could you provide a link for that?

[glasgow-guy]

Nice to see the Cold Spell Discussion is keeping on topic :unsure:

What the distance between Cumbria/Glasgow & London has to do with the upcoming Cold Spell in beyond me but..........

If you guys could try to keep on topic it would be much appreciated

Paul S :lol:

well we were chatting about weather just got a little side lined that all anyway back on the subject it should be a cracker no matter what comes

out of this cold spell north or south of the border :lol:

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I'll eat my hat if we get anywhere near as much snow of this 'cold spell' compared to the one last Feb. But that said, it would be great to be proved wrong.

[Methuselah]

I'll eat my hat if we get anywhere near as much snow of this 'cold spell' compared to the one last Feb. But that said, it would be great to be proved wrong.

Well, I'm expecting exactly the same snow-depth...0mm!! (23 telfords?) :unsure:

[Optimus Prime]

Could you provide a link for that?

Joes links don't work on here, his last name gets filtered by the swear filter (which is why most people have resorted to calling him Joe B)Putting his name into Google search will put you nstraight through to his blog.

Ps- Putting Joe Bastar*i Meteorological Muscle Expert into Google puts you through to his video archive for some strange reason.

Looking like we may get some cold weather.

Edited December 8, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[kold weather]

I'm loving the Met Office further update. They seem to go with the UKMO and GFS! This update has gone increasingly colder and wintrier in the last few days!

Karyo

Yep, of course the cavet being that if they shift then obviously the MO will shift as well quite readily. Still I think we are now nailed onto a 5 day cold spell thanks to this high pressure cell, mins don't look all that impressive but if we can get fog, and I'd have thought given the extreme moisture in the ground its a real possiblity, then obviously temps will be held down somewhat.

Aksi I'd never thought I'd see Joe B say that the models are somewhat extreme and this pattern is kicking in too early, however fair play to him, his forecast for late Autumn and the winter seems to be going utterly spot on at the moment.

[steve1971]

well hope i diont get band for this but my wife just said to me if it snows on the big day she will run down our road topless and back to our house .i ask if she was joking she was deadly serious .

[MR EXTREMES]

here is the exciting video lets hope hes not jinxs us lol.

http://www.accuweath...e%20in%20Europe

Edited December 8, 2009 by badboy657

[Dartmoor_Matt]

That video only (according to the commentary) shows 'snow flurries' over the UK... blue is snow cover. So no need to go ramping just yet me thinks

[fear sneachta]

here is the exciting video lets hope hes not jinxs us lol.

http://www.accuweath...e%20in%20Europe

That's a promising video forecast, however I fear the UK and Ireland will miss the brunt of it. It looks like the real cold air and heavy snow will sweep down to the south of us, extending down to Spain.