Cold Spell General Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

Similarities to '05 are better than to this February here, this February was often the wrong side of marginal while '05 had bags of wintry precipitation, even though the continent was much warmer than now. Mind you, either would suit precipitation wise, just as long as the dewpoints were on the right side of marginal.

[Optimus Prime]

The February 2005 cold snap was a disaster here. It snowed on about 4 nights giving a covering for it to all melt during the day. Minimum temperatures constantly around 0c and maximum 4c.

For such a great synoptic setup it was a huge letdown. January 2009 was the best. Very dry but very cold. Both my lowest Maximum (-0.5c) and lowest minimum (-8.4c) was recorded that month.

[guitarnutter]

May well see a forecast looking something like this mid month;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vae_rVLlyw4

Good fantasy stuff going on.

Or maybe one like this:

[kold weather]

Yeah Jan 2009 was pretty impressive, esp those first 10 days. A lot of people moaned about and mention it today because the models did downgrade what looked like an exceptional pattern but in the end we still got an impressivly long and potent cold spell, esp by the standards the 00 had set.

[Marcus_surfer]

Under the Feb 09 set up, here in the hills of northern Cardiff we had 12inches of snow and in places 2ft drifts. The SW/s.wales got the heaviest snow fall amounts in the U.K. So totaly agree, you only want a rain band pushing up from the Atlantic meeting the cold east winds and bang, snow storm, i can remember feb 2009 well, im 15 and ive never seen anything like it, it was comeing down thicker than id seen it come down in New England, USA.

Feb 09 was one of the heaviest snowfalls i've seen here on the South Wales coast, in that first week, the total snow amounted added up to 1 foot of snow. I'm sure we will not see that amount again for years to come.

[cheshire snow]

Well if you think its going to get cold here read on

Just had an Email from family in Calgary

Todays high got to a bone chilling -21c

Over 18 inches of snow also in the last 48hrs

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well if you think its going to get cold here read on

Just had an Email from family in Calgary

Todays high got to a bone chilling -21c

Over 18 inches of snow also in the last 48hrs

C.S

Damn! thats on the same latitude as us near enough, shows how warm we are

[Tim Bland]

Get yourselves over to Paddy power fellow weather enthusiasts! Just put a bet (£10) on a flurry in London on the big day at 7 to 1. I then got a free £20 bet which I placed on Glasgow at 4 to 1. All in all I stand to make £150 from £10!! effective odds of 15 to 1 ! Not bad looking at the current charts. All I need is a sleet shower or a snow grain to win!

Looking forward to the 18z!

[Mondy]

Currently down to 2°, with thick fog. Lot to be said for staying in rural areas :-)

[Mondy]

Brilliant! Same game abandoned twice due to fog. It was orginally postponed due to frost too.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_cups/8399310.stm

[Barb]

Feb 09 was one of the heaviest snowfalls i've seen here on the South Wales coast, in that first week, the total snow amounted added up to 1 foot of snow. I'm sure we will not see that amount again for years to come.

This Feb was pretty epic indeed here in S. Wales, snowed almost every day for a over week I think and was on the ground for nearly 2 weeks - over a foot in the hills near me. Brilliant. Had a similar amount of snow in Feb 08 too over 2 days but the difference was that it melted pretty much the next day. We've actually done very well here in the valleys over the past few years, can't complain at all.

And yes, for us we need to be looking for those sliding lows - both the Feb 08 and Feb 09 blizzards mentioned came from them. Sliding low colliding with a cold easterly block = bingo.

[on the coast]

Last one from me

2 histoic charts from the archives- take note of the dates & what historic weather occured just days later-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870107.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470118.gif

Now look at this......

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png

This is why we are hoping & praying this doesnt fall apart-

S

Wednesday and the 18z should have it nailed.

[Tom D]

Last one from me

2 histoic charts from the archives- take note of the dates & what historic weather occured just days later-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870107.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470118.gif

Now look at this......

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png

This is why we are hoping & praying this doesnt fall apart-

S

Oh my you've got me (and no doubt a lot of others) very excited now!

[damianslaw]

May well see a forecast looking something like this mid month;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vae_rVLlyw4

Good fantasy stuff going on.

[/quote

Yes I remember the last week of January 1996 and first week of February 1996 very well it brought sustained very cold weather and snowy weather, if we saw period such as 21 Jan 96 - 10 Feb 96 setting in from say this Friday, that would superb. Putting a timeline together for comparison we would see the following

21 jan - 26 jan 96 - equivalent timeline 11- 16 dec 09 = increasingly cold dry air from the east with snow flurries and light showers in the east

27 jan 96 = 17 dec 09 A day of heavy snow a sub zero temps for many (we'd be able to take the Friday off work , yippee..)

28 jan - 4 feb = 18-25 dec , remaining very cold with snow staying on the ground for many and some snow showers at times, a wonderful run up to the big day, but not quite the official white christmas

5-6 feb 96 = 26-27 dec 09 = amazing snowfalls for the NW , we got 18 inches in Windermere.

7-10 feb 96 = 27-31 feb = a cold end to the year with snow thick on the ground and slight top ups..

Couldn't resist making comparisons with the timelines of jan/feb 96 and where we are now.

[Cheese Rice]

The February 2005 cold snap was a disaster here. It snowed on about 4 nights giving a covering for it to all melt during the day. Minimum temperatures constantly around 0c and maximum 4c.

For such a great synoptic setup it was a huge letdown. January 2009 was the best. Very dry but very cold. Both my lowest Maximum (-0.5c) and lowest minimum (-8.4c) was recorded that month.

It wasn't too bad, the snow did melt every day but waking up every morning (for 5days) to thick fresh snowfall was good enough for me.

And yeah Janurary was pretty good, I got a max of -3.5c on one of the days.

Edited December 8, 2009 by 10123

[Matt12345]

Will the ECM set the trend now in the models or will it come back in line? Hopefully not another situation.

The February 2005 cold snap was a disaster here. It snowed on about 4 nights giving a covering for it to all melt during the day. Minimum temperatures constantly around 0c and maximum 4c.

For such a great synoptic setup it was a huge letdown. January 2009 was the best. Very dry but very cold. Both my lowest Maximum (-0.5c) and lowest minimum (-8.4c) was recorded that month.

This is exactly what i dont want to see from this potential cold setup. We had the same here just south of Bristol. No real cold temps, lots of wet snow. The sort of snow that settles on cars and grass and a bit over the roads. As the snow was falling the snow was melting off roof tops, I hate this. I want temperatures below zero, dry snow blowing around! None of this horrible wet stuff, where you just get soaked trying to sledge on wet snow/grass/mud. Horrid.

Feb 1991 was the last time there was real cold and real snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FEB 2005 quite good lots of heavy snow showers 21st-25th, but really too late in season virtually spring, temp got up to 3°C and higher and there was thawing of the snow

feb easterly

but certainly would like a repeat

[VillagePlank]

Not stirctly model related but apparently the bbc are talking about a global pattern change which is

going to bring about some increasingly colder weather for us.

Yeah - they've read the LI thread ....

Interesting times and in line with predictions made decades ago of a Hale winter about now or thereabouts.

Edited December 8, 2009 by VillagePlank

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z looking great beast appearing at 150 next tues

[Nights King]

Will the ECM set the trend now in the models or will it come back in line? Hopefully not another situation.

This is exactly what i dont want to see from this potential cold setup. We had the same here just south of Bristol. No real cold temps, lots of wet snow. The sort of snow that settles on cars and grass and a bit over the roads. As the snow was falling the snow was melting off roof tops, I hate this. I want temperatures below zero, dry snow blowing around! None of this horrible wet stuff, where you just get soaked trying to sledge on wet snow/grass/mud. Horrid.

Feb 1991 was the last time there was real cold and real snow.

I'll be honest id still be happy with that. the extra height meant that it lay around far better and was alright to sledge on here that year. I do prefer that powder snow though which blows around although once again if you don't get a heavy fall of powder snow it tends to blow around fields leaving bare patches and sledge sticks also.

Real cold and real snow? i am sure this area got pasted last feb 2009 and it was quite dry and lasted weeks

Edited December 8, 2009 by mullender83

[SteveB]

It's just to much, once again we are faced with a true cold spell. I so very much want to jump on board the snowfest rollercoaster, but experience tells me to not get excited.

[glasgow-guy]

well the good news continues we are still on for a artic blast for much of Britain this will be a very welcome change. anyone know when the media might jump on this? do we think the BBC weather might give a better insight on Fridays forecast or will they wait till the last minute.

[Nights King]

well the good news continues we are still on for a artic blast for much of Britain this will be a very welcome change. anyone know when the media might jump on this? do we think the BBC weather might give a better insight on Fridays forecast or will they wait till the last minute.

They will wait to the last min. they always do with cold snaps. probably trying to work out how they can blame it on global warming lol (sorry mods) They are hinting at a change to at least dryer conditions at the moment with near average temperatures.

[glasgow-guy]

They will wait to the last min. they always do with cold snaps. probably trying to work out how they can blame it on global warming lol (sorry mods) They are hinting at a change to at least dryer conditions at the moment with near average temperatures.

lol near average temperatures i am just waiting for that one to blow up in there face will be nice to see also if the met office comes on board quickly on this

cold spell and issues warnings on Sunday night

[FetchCB]

Yep - GFS suggests snow showers coming in off the north sea into Tues. If that verfied with those very cold uppers then the north sea would become a snow machine, much the way that the channel has made a rain fest down here over the last month Suggested here is a classic nor'easter reloading into another arctic northerly plunge!!

Thinking back to feb 1991 when Ian MCcaskil forecast this

the temp in the North Sea was only 5C currently it is twice that ( Source :- http://www.bsh.de/en/Marine_data/Observations/Sea_surface_temperatures/anom.jsp#SSTJ)