Model Output Discussion

[bluearmy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=1&mode=2&map=1

not sure i've ever seent the jet make it full circle and at T300!!

superb pressure anomolies from the 50 ensemble runs of GFS and GEM ensembled together into the NAEFS.

[kold weather]

Looks like the low is filling though Yeti, and so it should become absorbed into the main depression coming out of the states, may mean a slightly different evolution but on its own it shouldn't be a complete destroyed of the set-up.

Also welcome to NW Ian, notice you've been on here before but clearly its nice to have you posting as your going to have some more expierence then most here apart from maybe John when it comes to these sorts of things, esp inhouse stuff.

[Iceberg]

This all looks good to me even at T90Z you can tell that nothing drastically wrong will happen.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A bit flimsier than the 12Z IMHO as those Atlantic lows are rather closer to the NW at T+96 increasing the chances of shortwaves splitting the attempted omega block.

[Optimus Prime]

Mmm that low does look a little suspect. Lets hope we don't get the usual 'Laurel and Hardy' failure that these things bring us so many times in the past.

Edited December 7, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[Geordiesnow]

Notice the sudden deepening of such a feature S of GL on the 18z:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

That may throw a spanner in the works...

Yep i noticed that, which is a bit strange considering that the 12Z just filled the low out and disapeared whilst this one has 980mb low going up alongside of the high.

18Z is not normally the best run but i suppose we just have to keep an eye on that low.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Mmm that low does look a little suspect. Lets hope we don't get the usual 'Laurel and Hardy' failure that these things bring us so many times in the past.

That low at +96 near Greenland looks like trouble . It wasn't there on any other run .

[Iceberg]

People seem a bit jumpy to me, the basics are the same.

[Sawel]

So far, looks to be more like the ECM 12z run than the GFS 12z.

[kold weather]

Looks like this will be a slower run then the 12z thats for sure, the upper high not as well developed by 108hrs, there is a risk a shortwave will try to develop but we do have good support still from the Arctic high. I think this will evolve well but may take a little longer, more akin to the timframes of the UKMO.

So instead of taking one shortwave on the 12z GFS, this one may take a 2nd to lift it far enough.

[Optimus Prime]

Doesn't seem to have caused too many problems but shall be noted. We ened that thing to dissapear otherwise we'll never get ridging to Greenland and the Arctic high alas not allowing that low pressure over Scandinavia to drop southward opening up the real cold air on an easterly airstream.

Edited December 7, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[Duane S.]

I think what we are seeing here is a more likely scenario. Surely the GFS 12z was just too progressive, nice yes, but unlikely. I think this run will be ok but take a bit longer to get there.

Edited December 7, 2009 by s4lancia

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye I agree with the optimism. T+120 in and the high is still extending from the UK right up into the Arctic with the Atlantic depressions held out west of Greenland sending warm air advection up. Should see at least one or two easterly or north-easterly shots between T+168 and T+384.

[kold weather]

Here comes the REAL danger period on the models, between 120-168hrs the models deflate the UK high and build in another high to its north. This is where the whole synoptic set-up is at its weakest and most prone to failing. Still time for it to go wrong on the 18z but at the moment its ok...

[Harsh Climate]

Even if it does go wrong it could still be a warm outliar

[Snow Queen one]

Still looks ok to me maybe a bit slower to get there but ok so far.

[Paul]

Don't mean to keep banging on the same drum - but the GFS chart viewer here updates just as fast as everywhere else (if not faster), is using the highest res version of the GFS (unlike many of the wz charts) and all the charts are in english!!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Lewis]

Don't mean to keep banging on the same drum - but the GFS chart viewer here updates just as fast as everywhere else (if not faster), is using the highest res version of the GFS (unlike many of the wz charts) and all the charts are in english!!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Yep!

What paul says is correct, netweather is better than everything and anything!

cool charts.

BTW not liking the 18z once again, it's a delay. We see this too often, a delay and another than another, keeping any cold setups in FI, we never seem to reach them.

Edited December 7, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[kold weather]

Looking good to me, not as good as the 12z but that was probably an extreme as to what is possible, the key thing is it continues with the same general principle as the 12z run.

Going to take a litle longer for the cold air to get to the UK on this run saying that but its fine.

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Looks a complete mess. From this situation anything could happen! I think were allready into FI now. No way this runs guna show correctly all those scattered short waves, which completly shapes the entire run...

Edited December 7, 2009 by Jed Bickerdike

[Nick L]

The thing is, we are always told to compare the same runs (18z and 18z, 12z and 12z etc.) and therefore any improvement on last night's 18z is a good thing surely?

[Matty M]

Right here right now, this at 144hrs is very nice, most impressive is the sheer depth of the cold pool to our east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

[Snowaddict]

As others have said, a slightly slower, more 'flabby' evolution on the 18Z to T+144.

But when you look at the amount of blocking there at T+144, it quite simply is wonderful given what we have had to contend with during Decembers of recent winters.

Also, maxima really dropping off by next Sunday, down to 4C or less widely across the UK.

As Ian Brown has said, with colder air filtering into the continent, lower heights are inevitably going to be established.

An increasingly cold, potentially wintry, easterly to northeasterly flow is definitely the favoured evolution at the moment.

It's going to be turning much colder over the next 7 days, even with the outside chance of some wintry precip to close the Copenhagen summit

[swfc]

reinforcements on the way south as well

[Lewis]

I take my last post back, expect a huge upgrade!

The pool of air is much colder to our near continent and i think the isobars/flow when it pushes across the U.K are going to be much tighter delivering a more biting easterly.