Cold Spell Discussion 5

[LomondSnowstorm]

Im confused people saying snow for me on monday and the rest of the week but others i saying no so any help please and i live in northeast england

Monday into Tuesday gives you a decent chance of seeing some snow, albeit less than places further south, and it seems a bit unlikely to lie, though it could still upgrade. Tuesday evening into Wednesday looks a bit milder, but after that, there is a reasonable chance of heavy snow from a northeasterly both here and where you are, though again this is subject to change.

[peterf]

Off topic by some degree I'd say. Kylie Minogue?

[Nights King]

I know its a waiting game but can you remember last year when trough's developed...

This is my hope not just snow flurrie's also the longer the mass of cold area stay's the more chance of a South or West low hitting up against it..

Sledge time ahead then

long way Off I know..

Lets just hope something comes up from south or west however i wont be impresed if its a classic snow to rain in an hour job as milder weather moves in to west country....

[Snowstorm1]

Local weather forcast said snow next week starting from tuesday and wednesday

[dogs32]

Lets just hope something comes up from south or west however i wont be impresed if its a classic snow to rain in an hour job as milder weather moves in to west country....

I think your remembering like me...

Sooooo often over the yrs this happen's when we get a cold spell here.

At some point a area of rain hits the cold air from the East and turn's into sleet or a dumpingof snow...

Countless years Ive seen this scenario happen in the West Country.

Though there is no talk of this happening yet,this is my hope if the Beast from the East doesnt come up with the good's.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

That's how Dartmoor gets all its best snow! Oh to see a 25' drift a'la 1963.

Edited December 10, 2009 by Dartmoor_Matt

[D KARLSON]

ECMF or UKMO for easterlies but too be quite honest you can chuck the models out the window for the time being with councils up and down the country will now be in a state of panic as they will be wanting to know when and where the the snow will occur and as John Holmes has said this will now become a 12 hour 24 hour radar and synoptic watch , snow can and will crop up just about anywhere in theses scenarios which i will find amusing with the councils blaming forecasters and forecasters blaming councils for not interpreting their forecasts correctly .

This is quite a serious forecast if the weather is anywhere near as bad as forecast the country will grinding to a halt these synoptics are 80s at best, at worst you could have something that is 1947 style, certainly in terms of snow and lets face it weve been getting away with these mild winters for so long weve become complacent.

[Lewis]

tbh we could all argue the point regarding which model is correct/wrong, who the hell knows? because i certainly don't lol.

I think it's wonderful seeing people dissapointed with a slight downgrade, when the charts are fantastic, in my life-time (I'm only 20) i have never seen such fantastic models that we have experienced over the past 4-5 days.

My dad was at my house earlier and he was talking about the bad winters in the late 60's and early 70's, he said if i lived back then I would wake up to about 50cm+ of snow and 1-2 foot drifts everywhere.

So these models now are the best we are going to get during this climatic period. Obviously they may get better, but i think everyone needs to appreciate them and sit back and admire them, the roller-coaster of a ride is going to get bumpier as we are heading into a reliable time frame, and we do not yet know whats around the corner in FI.

Let's all jump aboard and enjoy the ride.

Lewis

P.S - Mods this is not ramping

[mt-leinster-snow-drifts]

Does anybody know if the 12z was a once off , with the cold air totally missing us next wednesday and not arriving till sunday.

Or will it continue in this manner and be a massive dissapointment. Or will we soon see the epic outputs of yesterdat return?

Edited December 10, 2009 by mt-leinster-snow-drifts

[Dartmoor_Matt]

On the basis that this is the UK... you can I fear assume that there will be a slow downgrade of snow potential over the next few days... possibly

[Nick L]

I reckon that this will end up being a damp squib. When the ECM starts to lower the possibility of a decent wintry spell then 99% of the time the other models will follow. Wouldn't be surprised if the UKMO backtracked tomorrow, leaving the GFS all on its own - something we have seen far too many times in the recent past.

Edited December 10, 2009 by nick2702

[clark3r]

On the basis that this is the UK... you can I fear assume that there will be a slow downgrade of snow potential over the next few days... possibly

have a feeling cold snap maybe alot shorter and less promising! but hopefully things start shaping up on charts for next week by end of weekend!

[Tim Bland]

DHL just delievered my mamouth sledge!! Then I saw the ECM

Edited December 10, 2009 by Tim Bland

[LomondSnowstorm]

Does anybody know if the 12z was a once off , with the cold air totally missing us next wednesday and not arriving till sunday.

Or will it continue in this manner and be a massive dissapointment. Or will we soon see the epic outputs of yesterdat return?

Met Office, who are usually fairly conservative forecasters, are talking about prolonged spells of snow in the north and east pushing southwest from midweek onwards, so I'm not going to take too much notice of the ECMs as long as the UKMO and the GFS + ensembles are onboard.

[Snowmadsam]

What about the impact in the western side of the country?

Will that be snowy

Accuweather has got me down for snow fullies on 24th dec:air_kiss:

Snowmadsam

[dogs32]

got to say Luton your post's arnt making much sense

anyway Mr Richard Angwin saying NO snow yet until MAYBE a threat next week.

for the South West

BBC dont seem to agree with the latest ECM

According to the BBC weather we will see a very cold high

NOT a chilly snap

Edited December 10, 2009 by dogs32

[John Snow]

ECM is probably wrong

GFS/UKMO v ECM

No contest really, ECM is wrong I think

[Cheese Rice]

I think the best thing to do is to ignore the model output from Wednesday on wards as too many members are taking each run to heart, when one model shows a less than enthusiastic run the best thing to remember is that this is all in FI so its bound to change. Even if there has been consistency in two or three runs it doesn't really matter, just wait till any cold is forecast in the reliable time frame.

Anyway I'm keeping an eye on Tuesday morning could be very interesting for those who live in West/ Far west of North Yorkshire

[NorthantsSnow]

What about the impact in the western side of the country?

Will that be snowy

Accuweather has got me down for snow fullies on 24th dec:air_kiss:

Snowmadsam

We don't even know what the weather will be like as early as Sunday/Monday yet, so nobody is going to be able to advise you on Christmas Eve with any kind of confidence. That forecast will be based on old model data and will change many times as the date gets nearer.

A very uncertain outlook but an increasing chance of cold/dry weather next week as opposed to cold/unsettled. I hope that isn't the case, but that's how the models are currently trending.

And it's possible at this stage that even the east will miss out on the snow.

Edited December 10, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[cold snap]

Okay if ECM is wrong ,Please can someone with good understanding tell us Why?

Because i have know idea and thats not a smart answer.

Is Ecm wrong .lets take a vote..

[Tim Bland]

Met Office, who are usually fairly conservative forecasters, are talking about prolonged spells of snow in the north and east pushing southwest from midweek onwards, so I'm not going to take too much notice of the ECMs as long as the UKMO and the GFS + ensembles are onboard.

To be fair the Metoffice produced that forecast in their morning meeting and this run has only just come out. We will not know their take on this run until tommorow. As we have seen allot recently their long term outlook can chop and change very dramaticaly within a day. I expect their forecast to be downgraded tommorow and more talk of colder weather rather than snow on the forecasts.

Okay if ECM is wrong ,Please can someone with good understanding tell us Why?

Because i have know idea and thats not a smart answer.

Is Ecm wrong .lets take a vote..

Ask me again this time next week. Its just another possible outcome so who knows! Makes it more interesting though!

[clark3r]

To be fair the Metoffice produced that forecast in their morning meeting and this run has only just come out. We will not know their take on this run until tommorow. As we have seen allot recently their long term outlook can chop and change very dramaticaly within a day. I expect their forecast to be downgraded tommorow and more talk of colder weather rather than snow on the forecasts.

i am confused.com on here with the ECM today and just hope it corrects itself tommorow if its wrong. just seems really odd to me!!!!!!

[tom_f123]

All over guys BBQ weather next week.

Being serious, i fear that the UKMO and GFS will follow the way of the ECM now. Once the ECM starts to downgrade things, normally its not long before the other models follow suit.

At least it will still feel more 'seasonal' for a time.

Edited December 10, 2009 by tom_f123

[Neilsouth]

All over guys BBQ weather next week.

Being serious, i fear that the UKMO and GFS will follow the way of the ECM now. Once the ECM starts to downgrade things, normally its not long before the other models follow suit.

But last night it upgraded it , big time so why didn't all the models follow suit?. Didn't even reply to some of the posts about it being the main model and best model in model thread as that's nonsense

[Luton Weather]

MET OFFICE

We are predicting a much colder spell of weather next week, with an increasing chance of sleet or snow, especially in the east.

Daytime temperatures may not rise much above freezing in places, with mist and fog that could persist in one or two areas.

Met Office Chief Forecaster, Frank Saunders said: “The change of weather follows a spell of very wet and mild weather but the coming days will add a more seasonal flavour for anybody out Christmas shopping.”

Although colder wintry conditions are likely next week, it is too early to provide details for Christmas Day itself, so keep up-to-date with the latest weather forecasts.