Cold Spell Discussion 5

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Seriously, when will people ever learn to stop fretting over this run and that run. It won't turn out like this! :lol:

Well yes but thats a bit harsh.

Snow queen fwiw,i think you'll do very well,this time next week lampost watch.

Fingers crossed.

:lol:

[Snow Queen one]

Seriously, when will people ever learn to stop fretting over this run and that run. It won't turn out like this! :lol:

thanks for that i am not fretting about this run though. it could change and i will get cold where i live so am not worried about that but i would have liked it to visit my neck of the woods before going north lol that's all.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes but Tamara is voicing her concerns about S England. When I post about the model output im looking at the UK as a whole and not just my own location. I appreciate that not all members live in Cambs.

I've now missed a session on MW2 due to this pesky SW.

I am aware that I spend a lot time telling people not to get involved with detail when the overall pattern is still being fleshed out. And I admit that talking about SE parts within the context of a model projection does rather appear to contradict my own advice - but aren't we all guilty of the same at times and getting so reeled into and absorbed into the possibilities and starting to think about our own area because of that?

That is natural enough and excusable I think - especially when one posts as objectively as one can 95% of the rest of the time. Hopefully seen as such anyway. We are only human afterall and want to be able to get excited in our own homes looking out of the window at the real thing and not just a computer projection all the time

[SP1986]

Well i will post in here my dissapointment with the 18z. That low seems to be on the verge of spoiling it for me i will not be lucky and see early snow from that. I remember 1987 and had high hope for it to happen this year but alas i am not to be rewarded. I jinxed myself by allowing myself to believe the charts and although it is only one run some of the more expert forcasters do seem to agree that the SE will miss out yet again. Great for the rest of the country just not us.

You need to see what happens up here in the Northwest of England in these potential situations, it would make you feel a whole lot optimistic about living where you do!

[snowman85]

Does any body know the chance of snow in the Manchester area if this cold spell hits. cheers

[David-kig]

it aint an inversion its the high moving north with a brief weak easterly

got my bk up if it goes wrong im playing tasmin archer sleeping satalite if it goes well im joinin with christmas tracks with a bang

[kumquat]

it aint an inversion its the high moving north with a brief weak easterly

Not sure if you're replying to me, David so question for anyone - I know the high moves off to the north but for the couple of days before that while the high builds from the south and sits over the UK, and the local forecasters are talking about fog and frost, is this part what is called inversion? I.e. where the surface gets cold - which can help prospects down the line? i.e does that help our temps possibly stay even lower when the easterly (however weak) kicks in?

Edited December 10, 2009 by kumquat

[SP1986]

Does any body know the chance of snow in the Manchester area if this cold spell hits. cheers

Not usually great, but ten times more likely than here!

[David-kig]

Not usually great, but ten times more likely than here!

steve ul be arite u wait!!!!

[snowman85]

Not usually great, but ten times more likely than here!

We got a slight covering in feb so fingers crossed!!.

[Guest]

And what about Christmas day?

25.12.2009.doc

[winterfreak]

Whos in for the 00z-

T36 has better orientation of WAA up greenland & slightly better orientation...

A very nice start..

S

I'm up, too excited to sleep but I rely on everyone else for info as I don't understand the models well enough to comment! Looking forward to some snow in Kent if we're lucky!!!

Sorry OT mods...

Hope this run is a belter Steve!!!

Edited December 10, 2009 by winterfreak

[dallas]

Whos in for the 00z-

T36 has better orientation of WAA up greenland & slightly better orientation...

A very nice start..

S

You getting the charts from wetter, dont thing the NW ones are working

[BFS/BHD]

Wow! Early much? Anyhow interesting report on the latest METAR from Aldergrove. Showing snow grains! Hardly that exciting but surprising none the less.

BELFAST/ALDERGROVE EGAA 100450Z AUTO 21005KT 0100NDV R25/0350 R07/0400 SG VV/// 03/03 Q1022

[frostyjoe]

nw is showig snow too lol!

[winterof79]

A few different solutions being thrown up this morning, no need for any panic. Those of us old enough will recall that you got the cold first and then the snow later, and whichever way we look at this mornings output a cold spell of decent length is on the cards.

Good morning to you.Excellent summary by Carinthian also.Have you changed bodies with Frosty overnight ? Give him back.You correctly point out however that a dry cold period is normally the precurser to the fun and games.

[dogs32]

Carol Kirkwood sticking her neck out this morning saying some of us will see some snow next week.

I think there is still plenty of time for this to be a large snow event.

Time will tell with many charts runs to come good or bad

[Joneseye]

Cold spell still looking very much game on for next week, just the finer details that keep changing. Anyone know of anywhere that sells decent sledges? been meaning to purchase one for a while now!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks good gfs 00Z, but ecmwf looks bone dry to me, the real stuff seems to be staying in FI, huge snow potential for weekend 19/20th now been pushed back again, looks dry mon-thurs, dont mind it staying in FI if we were guaranteed the snow but we are definitely not

[stewfox]

Sometimes I think that seeing so many charts a day gives us worries that years ago would not have existed, we all know that 00 will differ from 06 and so on -we should just be pleased that overall the promised spell has at this stage stayed very much as it was 2-3 days ago and fine tuning may well occur until maybe 12 hours prior to the main event. As TM said in a post earlier " in the 9 years of chart watching he cannot remember such synoptics", I fully concur.

I fear we will have to set up a ‘weather forum anonymous’.

I started of viewing and posting, social like, ended up sitting up all night and posting and postulated over the movement of a low at T144.

Ps just heard a guy at work say I hear it will get cold next week, the fool hasn’t he been model watching the last 168hrs (with a 3 hr break for viewing out of a window)

[Neilsouth]

8.30am Radio 5 Darren Bett Becoming colder over the weekend and even colder next week

[Nights King]

My local snow risk thing says i have an 85% chance on monday and a 90% chance of tuesday but when i look at all forecasts ect they show dry and sunny spells for my area.

[Tom D]

My local snow risk thing says i have an 85% chance on monday and a 90% chance of tuesday but when i look at all forecasts ect they show dry and sunny spells for my area.

The snow risk charts aren't what you should be looking at, unless you like to get your hopes up

For snowfall it's best to stay in the 24hr range, so by Sunday you should have a fairly good idea of if/when it will snow on Monday.

[Neilsouth]

Regarding this coming cold snap, I've just come back from the BBC. The MetO guy was in the studio before me talking about the coming cold snap. The presenter probed him on chances of snow. He said that at the moment it looked a dead cert for the east coast, mainly due to the close proximity to the sea and the easterly, or northeasterly flow, but the further inland you come the risk diminshes rapidly.

:D :D

[I remember Atlantic 252]

this 06Z looking fantastic, snow for monday night, really interested in this sun-tues period, seems to be upgrading on gfs, although still FI slowly creeping out