Cold Spell Discussion 5

[Gorky]

My only gripes are that the Main GFS model has slowly switched from a straight solid easterly blast of bitterly cold air which is amazing up here on the coast but often lacklustre in land, to slightly less cold air wrapped up in a series of low pressure systems which would give a more widespread event across the uk. From a purely selfish point of view I prefer the first, especially as the upper temps of around -6 to -8 can often fall as sleet early on in the year around here due to the effect of the still warm North Sea. The parallel however has the stronger easterlies, the low pressure system AND the colder air so that's win all around Still I would have liked to have seent he -15 air at 850hpa passing over the 10c sea. I'd imagine thundersnow would have been a pretty good possibility the convection that would generate. Still time for that to happen so I'll be watching things closely...

[Dartmoor_Matt]

About as much chance as down here then

[SP1986]

Yup i think you are just about in one of the worst places Ste.

Its really a shame im also in the NW but i do quite well from an Easterly direction,that said its only 15 mins

in the car and im in huddersfield west yorkshire.

But as you say,you should see some pretty cold frosty weather which is nice for the time of year.

Merseyside/wirrall is really a big snow dome unless its a polar NW wind.

Well frost is often difficult to achieve in a straight easterly here because we're high up and we tend to get wind so it keeps the temperatures up a bit.. wind from the southeast is a different scenario though. I'm pretty much exposed to all sides here being on a relative hill.. so on the coldest nights, it's not so cold.

[FetchCB]

How much warmer is the North Sea this time around cf early Jan 79.New years day Jan 1979 I help clear my gran frozen house she had stayed over Christmas. That was bitter We have had a mild November , we talking 1 /2 c warmer North sea then ,then I guess ?If we get real cold 850s then 'North sea effect snow' Kind of snow that's easy to role into a snowman ? Heavy and wet ?But if its very cold would it be dry ??Any thoughts ??

The Jan 87 temp was around 5C for the southern North Sea Last week it was around the 11C mark

maps etc can be found here http://www.bsh.de/en/Marine_data/Observations/Sea_surface_temperatures/SST_d.jsp#0

[ChartViewer]

Hi Help needed,

I have monitoring the jet and the bits of energy from it which dictate flows and where colder

air is going to end up. But it keeps chopping, changing losing energy and changing track.

Could an expert here try to explain to me over the last few runs what the Jet is NOW showing

in the Models and how this is affecting the runs?

Thanks in advance

CV

Just noticed this has been moved. Any expert can give a view on current jet synoptics please?

[dogs32]

yes I think we could get a pasting if the first shortwave gets the bitter air over the Uk then the 2nd Shortwave will act like a Channel Low and you will get buried in :cray:

and worse than last year a poss

I must calm down

Edited December 10, 2009 by dogs32

[kold weather]

I'd expect there to be snow in Essex Paul on Monday and overnight hours, if the winds do turn slightly ESE then we'd probably lose the worst of it and the worst would become focused a good deal further up the east coast, on the plus side in a ESE temps reallywould have a hard time getting above 0C.

Winds should veer to a very favourable angle for a thames snow stream if the GFS is correct as well, but still too early to make that sort of call of course...but since I'll be back in essex by then, I'll take that!

Also finally, the north Sea will cool down very rapidly in the next 7 days, GFS gets it down to 7C by next Friday...the longer we keep a cold flow the more you'll see it drop.

Edited December 10, 2009 by kold weather

[maidstone weather]

Hopefully if it's a NEerly or ENEerly I shall be OK as I am back in Kent from Saturday onwards.

However if it becomes any variant of a SEerly then maybe I should stay in Norwich?

[Methuselah]

The Jan 87 temp was around 5C for the southern North Sea Last week it was around the 11C mark

maps etc can be found here http://www.bsh.de/en/Marine_data/Observations/Sea_surface_temperatures/SST_d.jsp#0

North Sea temps in Decembers 1976 and 1995 would also have been high?? How was the convection in those years' Eaterlies?

[stewfox]

Also finally, the north Sea will cool down very rapidly in the next 7 days, GFS gets it down to 7C by next Friday...the longer we keep a cold flow the more you'll see it drop.

So the North sea can cool down by 4c in a week

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Hopefully if it's a NEerly or ENEerly I shall be OK as I am back in Kent from Saturday onwards.

However if it becomes any variant of a SEerly then maybe I should stay in Norwich?

So, based on that, if I want snow I need to look for south-easterlies?

[Neilsouth]

So, based on that, if I want snow I need to look for south-easterlies?

No , even for you it's either easterlies or north easterlies... South easterlies from norfolk southwards are rubbish

[Dublin Novice]

What about the East coast of Ireland and in particular, Dublin? I remember very well the fantastic snowfall here in January 1982 that practically paralysed the entire country. Does anyone know if this could be marginal or a full blown event? I have been following the evolution of this event closely over the past two weeks and cannot believe that we could possibly be about to experience such seasonal snowfall! Can anyone put my mind at rest please!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

No , even for you it's either easterlies or north easterlies... South easterlies from norfolk southwards are rubbish

That's what I thought - my question was based on surprise that I should be looking for a SE'rly.

[SP1986]

I think people are expecting a little more snow than will happen. Judging by the outputs there's nothing especially conducive to widespread snow, in fact there's nothing in a plausible timeframe to suggest widespread snow. The only snow if it snows at all given the moderating effects of the north sea and depending how far inland it drives will be on the east coast. There's no suggestion of snow anywhere else really..

[FetchCB]

Yes I think that the Essex coast east and north east coastal areas could get buried in snow ! You could do well out of this Paul

I'd expect there to be snow in Essex Paul on Monday and overnight hours, if the winds do turn slightly ESE then we'd probably lose the worst of it and the worst would become focused a good deal further up the east coast, on the plus side in a ESE temps reallywould have a hard time getting above 0C.Winds should veer to a very favourable angle for a thames snow stream if the GFS is correct as well, but still too early to make that sort of call of course...but since I'll be back in essex by then, I'll take that! Also finally, the north Sea will cool down very rapidly in the next 7 days, GFS gets it down to 7C by next Friday...the longer we keep a cold flow the more you'll see it drop.

According to the following "presentation" on lake effect snow

http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/smfaculty/byrd/sld006.htm

it states that there should be a >13C difference (amongst other things) between the T850 temp and the sea/lake temp so even at 7C it would only take a T850 of -6 for the effect to be a risk.

I

[glasgow-guy]

my chance of snow for Tuesday looks good however if i change my location to Glasgow odds decrease this difference of about 9 miles is startling

[steve1971]

well this time next week we be saying wens the cold spell going to start i exspect some very frosty mornings and foggy to maybe even a few rain showers during the day but will be mild again after a few days no real sing of winter just yet.

[Eugene]

You lucky east anglians and northeasterners look to be in for a right pasting next week, enjoy and nevermind the jealous westerners

LOL, check out this headline "Britain braced for widespread frost". a bit OTT.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20091210/tuk-britain-braced-for-widespread-frost-6323e80.html

[Solar Cycles]

well this time next week we be saying wens the cold spell going to start i exspect some very frosty mornings and foggy to maybe even a few rain showers during the day but will be mild again after a few days no real sing of winter just yet.

Yes and you are basing that on what?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

my chance of snow for Tuesday looks good however if i change my location to Glasgow odds decrease this difference of about 9 miles is startling

mine is 85% from Tuesday midday onwards. As if.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes I think that the Essex coast east and north east coastal areas could get buried in snow !

You could do well out of this Paul

Yep

Looking good for both our areas initially Tamara! Folkestone would be a good place to be high up around the hillier area that surrounds the Town!

Paul S

[snowmadchrisuk]

Snow chances in Leicestershire on Netweather's forecast is 92-95% throughout most of next week , dam line around 520 for most of the week as well. That says to me any showers will be of snow after Monday no matter what .

[Nights King]

My forecast is almost 100% for every day this week. if you type in mendip hills you can see.

I just don't think the local forecast is very accurate at the moment? I cannot see ppn making it to the west country.

Dare i say it but metchecks local forecast looks nearer mark this time with chance of odd flurry but nearly dry cold patchy cloud forecast for next 2 weeks.

Edited December 10, 2009 by mullender83

[snowmadchrisuk]

My forecast is almost 100% for every day this week. if you type in mendip hills you can see.

I just don't think the local forecast is very accurate at the moment? I cannot see ppn making it to the west country.

Dare i say it but metchecks local forecast looks nearer mark this time with chance of odd flurry but nearly dry cold patchy cloud forecast for next 2 weeks.

Yes the air is colder in Somerset due to clear sky's . Your snow will come later , Either from low's trying to get in from the SW or by trough's . It will be time soon to start watching the Fax charts as these will show any troughs that might effect us.