Model Output Discussion

[Geordiesnow]

The important thing was that this run has not trended towards the ECM but as Kold says, it's tomorrow's runs that are important. 00Z GFS often has in the past bought us all back down to reality after a good 18Z run so it's not in the bag yet.

I think we will find out by the end of tomorrow's 12Z runs whether the ecm was onto something or not, ideally i would like to know sooner but it never tends to work that way!

Parallel and FAX runs will be interesting, especially the latter, lets hope the UKMO forecasters have faith in there own model.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I hope,no,pray that gfs is correct here.

This run is outstanding and has deep freeze written all over it.

I'd LOVE to hear GP's thoughts on all of this.

Surely when we have a tanked AO negative NAO and a huge block it cant go wrong again,can it?

[Nick F]

GFS has the block much further N across Greenland into the medium range which allows the colder air to advect west further north across the UK, whereas ECM has the block sinking south with alot more energy going over the top across Greenland and down into Scandi keeping the cold air locked away to the NE - big difference here. And tomorrow morning's ECM will be much anticipated ... hopefully 00z GFS will stick to its guns!

[cyclonic happiness]

Can a greenland high collapse that quickly??, i can't be bothered with the rest of this run, parallel will be starting soon...........................

[kold weather]

Some might be thinging "this is the pub run" however what your seeing from the 18Z so far is actually representative of the GEFS mean and the GFS parallel runs these past few days.

The charts around +162 are suggesting a wash streamer.

Yep your quite right, the Paralell has been showing that situation for days, though I have to admit even if the ECM is wrong I expect the GFS is probably somewhat on the extreme side of what is possible, but still would be very nice to see.

I hope to see the 0z even nearly as good as this, if it does then my confidence will increase again but I hope to just see a decent 0z UKMO/GFS.

[smich]

why not give him his own sticky thread.

then we can all come back and laugh our heads off at later dates.

Nasty.

"Let he who is without sin cast the first stone."

Where's Nick Sussex??!! Putting his visitors to bed I hope and then we can get some good sensible comments on the model battle!

I must admit, I thought the spell of upgrades was over. It simply couldn't get better, especially for so early in the season.

And now, at T150 we have the almost circular Greenland High, flow off the continent, snow etc

Model watching has never been so exciting.

smich

[Neilsouth]

Very bitter , heating on from monday till beyond lol

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

[John Snow]

What a contrast a few hours makes

When the ECM came out it looked game over and just a few flurries now with the GFS charts COBRA will likely be in emergency session on Thursday and the weather dominate the news channels, its shocking how far apart 2 different charts are in such short space of time

[bluearmy]

strange devlopments over greenland T192 to T240 on the op - i would question what follows.

[Frosty.]

What time will the fax chart be out please?

A real roller coaster day & night of model watching ending on a high note

[Duane S.]

Yep, by 156hrs the east coast gets hammered, looks like mainly a more northern event then the intial cold shot that whilst snowy further north would be even more so in the south.

as for the ECM data issues, where is the link that says that, it all depends on exactly where the data is missing and stuff like that. I wouldn't get too excited about this however, the ECM tends to be very stubborn at this range but the GFS really isn't giving ground and neither is the UKMO.

The UKMO is the key model if both them stay with thier respective ideas on thier 0z runs.

It's always the same at this time, a good old Mexican standoff ensues! Yes I agree the ECM is incredibly stubborn at times but then I suppose the same could be said of all the models at times.

The thing is the past two ECMWF runs have been sooo far of the mark and now with the ensembles which on the face of it give the op some credience, surely something here is adrift?? If it really IS on to something however, and I have to say I give that only a 10% chance, then it will certainly go up in my estimation as I've never really bought into all this ECM worshipping.

[NorthantsSnow]

I'm sure the Spanish equivalent of Netweather will be ramping away at the latter stages of tonight's 18z.

[wysiwyg]

Reading this topic is an extraordinary experience, particularly at times like this. I have only a limited ability to read the models so look to this topic for guidance, and tonight so please let's have some measured and considered views (that I can nick and sell on at 2009 prices). Thanks.

AS

Stick with it AS. You will soon get the hang of which posts are what you want (look for the likes of Glacier Point, Steve Murr, John Holmes) and which ones are sensationalistic attention seeking garbage. I have posted twice tonight and not a single response. Regardless of how often the experienced posters and mods warn of the perils of run by run "hopecasting" it still goes on and the thread degenerates into a stream of one liners.

I'm sticking by my initial assessment of this cold spell because teleconnections support the output that the majority of models are computing. I am not really expecting significant snowfall here in the west of the UK just now but I am confident that we will see typical UK fog and frost winters regardless of which models verify. If snow comes it will be a bonus.

EDIT: Didn't mean to be disrespectful to anyone who posts useful stuff on here but isn't one of the three I mentioned. Keep up the informative posts with my gratitude

Edited December 10, 2009 by wysiwyg

[weather eater]

Parallel now out to 120hrs, guess what, its not following the ECM. GFS goes a bit strange at the 220 mark and sort of falls over in a heap, but that’s FI for you.

Edited December 10, 2009 by weather eater

[stewfox]

AT LAST SOMEONE LISTENED TO WHAT WAS BEING SAID. No model is infalable and it seems on one of the most important times of the winter the ECM has fallen foul to human error or something. Ther is hope yet.

Into =72 now and it looks as if the cold will arrive a bit earlier than the last run. Not too much has changed in the reliable time frame yet.

I wonder if anyone reads other peoples post.

Thanks for picking it up

[John Snow]

ECM's credibility is in tatters now, just hope they can spin it that there was some faults/glitches because they have bought themselves embarrassment and loss of credibility now

[bluearmy]

FAX T120 out

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

not really sure - could go either way - have the fellas in exter bottled it or do they, like us, not have a scooby ?

incidentally, note how there is no cold air north or east of the fronts coming down. you have to get east of the occlusion (the jet front). if you think you'll see any snow mid next week, forget it if the T120 is close. that west norwegian low needs to head s or sw pretty damn quickly

Edited December 10, 2009 by bluearmy

[smich]

I'm sure the Spanish equivalent of Netweather will be ramping away at the latter stages of tonight's 18z.

You've hit something there, NS! Putting yourself in someone else's shoes.

On numerous occasions I've seen the -10c isotherm move over a thousand miles in one run over scandinavia and Svalbard!

smich

[kold weather]

Remember the GFS loses resolution at 180hrs so you can't take what it says too seriously past that timeframe...well to be honest given how uncertain we need to take caution after 96hrs to be honest.

FWIW, the 18z is a *bitter* run, would be by far the coldest winter event probably since Feb 91 overall, utterly bitter...of course probably a little extreme however.

[Mark Bayley]

Very good GFS operation and good (but not as good as the 12z) GFS parallel so far! Most importantly neither follow the ECM which is good. The main hurdle is in the morning when the 0zs come out. I think chances are that ECM will come in line with the UKMO and GFS. Nothing is certain though and i could be wrong

Lets see what the ensembles come out with

Edited December 10, 2009 by mark bayley

[Tom D]

strange devlopments over greenland T192 to T240 on the op - i would question what follows.

It looks like it goes completely mad after +192, I can't see how the change between 180 and 192 can happen like that... but it's a long way away and what is between +96 and +140 is great in this run.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the parallel seems to be a slight downgrade, whereas the operational run is an upgrade.

Edited December 10, 2009 by Tommyd1258

[swfc]

Well all the hit and miss model output must be affecting the bbc weather forecasts.Rob the ramp isnt mentioning any cold or wintry weather next week.Something isnt right right with the output here.?????

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

ECM's credibility is in tatters now, just hope they can spin it that there was some faults/glitches because they have bought themselves embarrassment and loss of credibility now

When it is snowing out side and freezing cold then I would say that about the ECM. I really hope you are right by the way, trying to keep the faith. I think it was last winter when the GFS got a lot of stick on here. I don't now what to believe.

[cyclonic happiness]

I know it's silly looking into FI (parallel) but it looks like a northerly reload coming up at 240 and our greenie high is safe.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&runpara=1

Oww no, scrub that...it's gone all weird now lol!!

Edited December 10, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

I'm sure the Spanish equivalent of Netweather will be ramping away at the latter stages of tonight's 18z.

Tiempo-neto i think they are called

Sorry..... Just thought we needed some humour tonight mods....

Edited December 10, 2009 by ned