Model Output Discussion

[abruzzi spur]

Stick with it AS. You will soon get the hang of which posts are what you want (look for the likes of Glacier Point, Steve Murr, John Holmes) and which ones are sensationalistic attention seeking garbage. I have posted twice tonight and not a single response. Regardless of how often the experienced posters and mods warn of the perils of run by run "hopecasting" it still goes on and the thread degenerates into a stream of one liners.

I'm sticking by my initial assessment of this cold spell because teleconnections support the output that the majority of models are computing. I am not really expecting significant snowfall here in the west of the UK just now but I am confident that we will see typical UK fog and frost winters regardless of which models verify. If snow comes it will be a bonus.

Yep, thanks. I've been watching for a few years and occasionally posting something that I thought might lighten the mood (attempted humour as substitute for knowledge!) Sometimes a step back leads in the end to at least 2 the other way. Appreciate your reply. AS

[John Snow]

When does the 0z come out ?

[kold weather]

FAX T120 out

http://www.meteociel...ch=0&carte=2000

not really sure - could go either way - have the fellas in exter bottled it or do they, like us, not have a scooby ?

Looks exactly the same as the 12z UKMO to me, so looks like they are gonig with thier own model, hardly surprising given the GFS is agreeing with the UKMO as well. The mornings runs are sooo vital for our cold spell and how cold it really could be. Still, lets hope the ensembles are confident wth a cold solution.

[Frosty.]

ECM's credibility is in tatters now, just hope they can spin it that there was some faults/glitches because they have bought themselves embarrassment and loss of credibility now

How can it be in tatters when we don't even know what the 00z will look like yet.

Parallel 18z looking good again, whether that actually means anything will probably be decided tomorrow.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

When does the 0z come out ?

Around half 3 in the morning I think

[Iceberg]

FAX T120 out

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

not really sure - could go either way - have the fellas in exter bottled it or do they, like us, not have a scooby ?

Those fax charts support the METO run and NOT the ECM

[John Snow]

When it is snowing out side and freezing cold then I would say that about the ECM. I really hope you are right by the way, trying to keep the faith. I think it was last winter when the GFS got a lot of stick on here. I don't now what to believe.

If ECM was getting any sort of support from other sources like UKMO, NOAA or anyone I would maybe believe them but every source is lining up with the GFS so ECM are either going to be hero or a laughing stock, given the sheer weight of sources they are up against I suspect laughing stock

[John Snow]

Around half 3 in the morning I think

Thanks, can't wait up for them due to work tomorrow but eagerly await the 0z

[stewfox]

Quick one,has ecm missing data and if not why does gfs look so good.

No dont get off that easily

You have to read 24 pages first

[Iceberg]

It's impossible to tell where we would be headed from that fax chart.

We arn't talking about where we are going, we are talking about what's it showing !.

It's showing the HP and the LP ove Scandy in the same position as the METO not the ECM.

[wysiwyg]

ECM's credibility is in tatters now, just hope they can spin it that there was some faults/glitches because they have bought themselves embarrassment and loss of credibility now

It fails one run and we get this type of post. It's a computer model used by a well respected weather forecasting organisation. They will base their forecasts on a lot more than just the computed output. It has been the most consistent model in the two years I have been a member here - how does one run shatter its credibility.

Please Please Please use these models in conjunction with the teleconnection forecasts produced here.

All the models have been consistently showing a major shift in synoptics compared to the mild train that is the prevailing normal weather in the UK - even in the old era (as opposed to the christmas pudding) snow was as rare as hen's teeth in the UK lowlands - it's already foggy and pretty cool outside here tonight and that was being picked up by all the models (including the ECMWF) several days ago.

Edited December 10, 2009 by wysiwyg

[snowmadchrisuk]

I don't like the fax chart at +120 - to many lows about to our North and we don't even have the 528 dam line over us from what I can see.

[moses]

Its not going to be the 18z that backs down, my real fear is waking up and seeing the downgrade. Till then just about anything could happen however.

HD, it is an outlier but the control run is using the same data as the op run but comes out with a different evolution. This is so key because it shows this could go either way still.

Stunning 18z GFS though it has to be said, probably would be some good snow at home.

Briefly, I'm following all this synoptically, but what IS a control run , compared to the operational? Why the difference and the importance?

[stewfox]

Well all the hit and miss model output must be affecting the bbc weather forecasts.Rob the ramp isnt mentioning any cold or wintry weather next week.Something isnt right right with the output here.?????

He said its Rain for now

[kold weather]

It's impossible to tell where we would be headed from that fax chart.

Well we do because thats pretty much the raw 120hrs UKMO, and we can see what that does at 144hrs and that agrees wit hthe GFS, so we can pretty much assume the fax charts would go the same way as those two models.

Paralell a good run, though its not a great end to the run.

[John Snow]

It fails one run and we get this type of post. It's a computer model used by a well respected weather forecasting organisation. They will base their forecasts on a lot more than just the computed output. It has been the most consistent model in the two years I have been a member here - how does one run shatter its credibility.

Please Please Please use these models in conjunction with the teleconnection forecasts produced here.

All the models have been consistently showing a major shift in synoptics compared to the mild train that is the prevailing normal weather in the UK - even in the old era (as opposed to the christmas pudding) snow was as rare as hen's teeth in the UK lowlands - it's already foggy and pretty cool outside here tonight and that was being picked up by all the models (including the ECMWF) several days ago.

The teleconnection forecasts back up what the GFS and all the other sources come up with that are not called ECM, they may be respected but how can they get something like this so seemingly spectacularly wrong ?

[davehsug]

I don't like the fax chart at +120 - to many lows about to our North and we don't even have the 528 dam line over us from what I can see.

There is also no sign of the Easterly flow that the GFS is already showing by that time. Whilst I think the ECM is off the mark, The FAx chart shows very little support for the detail of the GFS.

[cold snap]

The fax looks find to me you can the evolution begining very important 24 hours coming some one has to be wrong

Still coming to terms with the 18z Deep Freeze .Unreal charts.

If the GFS backdowns tommorow Worse Backtrack Ever for U.K .i would expect people to be gutted.on the over hand.ECM has given us a sign that a Backtrack is possible

[cooling climate]

The latest faxes are siding with the Euro models rather than the GFS.

That does not mean to say they are right or wrong.

[Iceberg]

Well we do because thats pretty much the raw 120hrs UKMO, and we can see what that does at 144hrs and that agrees wit hthe GFS, so we can pretty much assume the fax charts would go the same way as those two models.

Paralell a good run, though its not a great end to the run.

The parallel is very messy, I think beyond the low at say 180Z there is considerable uncertainty and the models are struggling.

[snowlover2009]

The latest faxes are siding with the Euro models rather than the GFS.

That does not mean to say they are right or wrong.

they are not! more like ukmo and gfs lol!

[John Snow]

The fax looks find to me you can the evolution begining very important 24 hours coming some one has to be wrong

Still coming to terms with the 18z Deep Freeze .Unreal charts.

If the GFS backdowns tommorow Worse Backtrack Ever for U.K .i would expect people to be gutted.on the over hand.ECM has given us a sign that a Backtrack is possible

I suspect that the next ECM chart will fall into line with GFS and others, meetings and phone calls will be going on now to save face I think so I think that the next ECM will heavily backtrack and fall into line with GFS

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well I have seen enough tonight, thanks everyone for your entertainment and model watching lessons. I will be back on here in the morning to see what the 0z run has to show. Really hope those stating the GFS will be good then are right and that the ECm would have climbed back on board. Night all

[snowspotter]

they are not! more like ukmo and gfs lol!

I've just looked at the GFS and ECM and they side to the GFS no question . High further north .

There is no way they follow the ECM

[wysiwyg]

The teleconnection forecasts back up what the GFS and all the other sources come up with that are not called ECM, they may be respected but how can they get something like this so seemingly spectacularly wrong ?

They are at the mercy of the data that is input to the model - the model may be wrong but you can be assured that the experts at the ECMWf wont base their forecasts on that one model run. Also the GFS has been "spectacularly wrong" (as a forecasting model) on many more occasions than the ECM in the two and a half years I have been model watching.