Model Output Discussion

[casparjack]

All negative at the minute

Can someone with good detail please tell me why ECM is wrong?

Lets lift the spirit here Please

Forgive me, not trying to be antagonistic, but who says the ECM is wrong - it can't be yet - can it?

[Jan_Bromley]

Hi all,

I have just read that pattern changes coming out of Canada and USA will be affecting the Omega block, also disturbing the ridging over Scandi.

It also said that the synoptic future is totally uncertain. Complex set up. We could either re-load or end up with atlantic mild and wet.

regards,

Jan

[PersianPaladin]

I have just copied this from NOAA this evening.

TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA

HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FEATURES UPPER LEVEL

TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER

THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S., AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD

OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICT MORE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH DEPICTS

A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN A VERY CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN,

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL

U.S. IN ADDITION, THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z

DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION.

THEREFORE, TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND FAVORS THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE.

Going back to my post on page 12; this is what we need to see within T96+

Edited December 10, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[snowmadchrisuk]

I have just copied this from NOAA this evening.

TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA

HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FEATURES UPPER LEVEL

TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER

THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S., AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD

OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICT MORE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH DEPICTS

A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN A VERY CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN,

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL

U.S. IN ADDITION, THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z

DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION.

THEREFORE, TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND FAVORS THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE.

Well that has cheered me up . It is worrying though for the ECM to be wrong on it's first chart +72 hours would be very unusual.

[Methuselah]

Forgive me, not trying to be antagonistic, but who says the ECM is wrong - it can't be yet - can it?

'TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA

HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FEATURES UPPER LEVEL

TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER

THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S., AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD

OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICT MORE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH DEPICTS

A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN A VERY CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN,

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL

U.S. IN ADDITION, THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z

DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION'.

Posted above by CC!!!

[bluearmy]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

- anyone looking for a warm outlier throughout the run will be be dissapointed although holland is a bit to our east. the mean is similar to yesterday with a small clustering of milder solutions later next week. inconclusive i'm afraid though the op is in the mildest fifth of the runs at D10

Edited December 10, 2009 by bluearmy

[stewfox]

I think some are forgetting this is a week away, so until Tuesday (at the very earliest) we will have a better idea of what may (or may not) happen. Some members are jumping the gun at a few dodgy runs, as members keep saying there will be highs and lows from each run, all the models are chopping and changing so there is little if any certaincy as to what will happen at then end of next week. All we know is it will get colder.

The problem is T96 was always FI in this set up

A few that mentioned last night were set upon

T36 wasnt 'nailed' last night and nor is it now.

We do kow it is getting colder

Edited December 10, 2009 by stewfox

[The Eagle]

Here's the ECMWF pressure plotted onto the GFS ensembles for a random town south of the UK, (this shows how far south the HP is likely to fall.

It's quite clear that ECM really doesn't have very much if any support.

I would be reasonably certain that the ECM run has little support from the EPS. It would be very unusual for the two sets of Ensembles to be so far out at this time range.

The GFS ensembles can completely change with just one run. Last Febuary's fiasco was such an example. That Easterly went downhill shockingly quick. ECM first (in fact it was never really on board, like now), then the next GFS run the ensembles were completely reversed. I remember the disappointment here then. I also argued then that it was inconcievable the ECM would be so wrong around 96hrs (that's how close it was) like now. Unfortunately again the ECM was right.

But anyway I still have my fingers belatedly crossed for the 18z to show something similar or an improvement on the 12z GFS. We all want this great opportunity to come off. It's not often the Artic High comes so much into play. It's quite exciting actually.

[Snowstorm1]

I have just copied this from NOAA this evening.

TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA

HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FEATURES UPPER LEVEL

TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER

THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S., AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD

OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICT MORE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH DEPICTS

A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN A VERY CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN,

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL

U.S. IN ADDITION, THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z

DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION.

THEREFORE, TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND FAVORS THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE.

Can someone sum that up for me in simple laguage as i dont have a clue what that says

[smich]

All negative at the minute

Can someone with good detail please tell me why ECM is wrong?

Lets lift the spirit here Please

Because it's guessing. All the models are. They try to predict a future that is chaotic.

ECM has been inconsistent, but has a history of "correcting " the GFS in the short time frame. However, the GFS parallel has been rock solid for days, and I suspect it stands a good chance of being right because it's for want of a better term, newest! Equally, the extraordinary NAO and AO forecast must surely throw a spanner in the modelling works?

So to imply "it's all over" is absolutely ridiculous. Bonkers.

It's absolutely fascinating to watch how the runs ebb and flow, trends emerging and fading. The only thing that spoils it are the posts that ride on one run.

smich

[Cloud 10]

yesterdays ens ecm - sorry

Indeed they are,a bit confusing when they put todays date on yesterdays ensembles.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Can someone sum that up for me in simple laguage as i dont have a clue what that says

It says they prefer GFS , as northern blocking over Greenland is the most likely outcome giving all the ensembles and background signals that are available.

[yamkin]

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 84h

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 96h....The UK is -26c

Edited December 10, 2009 by yamkin

[Nick L]

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 84h

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 96h....The UK is

Doesn't need Meteorology knowledge at degree level to tell that is a broken chart! :lol:

[snowmadchrisuk]

Thankyou that has certainly lifted my spirit :lol:

Well we await the 18z GFS run with baited breath , although it was not that great last night . If that is ok though we will need to pray we wake up in the morning to an ECM backtrack.

[LomondSnowstorm]

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 84h

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 96h....The UK is -26c

Not again - this is the second time in a week the WMC has decided to relocate the north pole to southern Scotland!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Bear in mind what GP has repeatedly said about the ECM taking the HP to our west and it being wrong and not fitting the GWO 4 phasing. There was an ECM output the other day almost identical to this one and it was forced to backtrack immediately. Advice has been to ignore any output which suggests as such and that position has not changed.

The ECM should be back on board tomorrow - if not then you can shoot me instead

One has to look at if the ECM did/has backtracked backtrack? Becauuse it was the FI that was changing really, it is only looking like it did a few days ago but in nearer time. My view is that [even the ECM] is showing cold weather but the armaggeddon is wrong. Cold week to 10 days but mild breaking through...and in time for Christmas. The reason being that the cold signal in my view is just that...a 7-10 day period. I am not convinced this is the real deal yet but a shot across the boughs......but it may be as it looks like being one of those winters.

BFTP

[fear sneachta]

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 84h :lol: :lol:

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 96h....The UK is -26c :help:

How could it be that those two charts are totally different?

And how could it be -28 C over the UK? That's lunacy and absolutely never going to happen, needless to say.

[Cloud 10]

12z ecm ensembles

[casparjack]

'TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA

HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FEATURES UPPER LEVEL

TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER

THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S., AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD

OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICT MORE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH DEPICTS

A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN A VERY CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN,

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL

U.S. IN ADDITION, THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z

DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION'.

Posted above by CC!!!

That post appeared after my question, but it still remains a forecast!

[Tim Bland]

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 84h :lol: :lol:

WMC Moscow Europe 12Z 96h....The UK is -26c

Whats the WMC model? Do you think that second chart could possibly be a cold outlier lol!

[yamkin]

Whats the WMC model? Do you think that second chart could possibly be a cold outlier lol!

Moscow's model.....Unlikely the second would happen, but it's not impossible :lol:

[Optimus Prime]

Thats global warming for ya!

Don't be so ignorant.

I'm really surprised by how the ECM is so solid in showing us no easterly. This could well effect it's reputation if it's wrong (GFS doesn't really have one so nothing can be tarnished)

[cyclonic happiness]

Don't be so ignorant.

I'm really surprised by how the ECM is so solid in showing us no easterly. This could well effect it's reputation if it's wrong (GFS doesn't really have one so nothing can be tarnished)

All the synoptics are so much different to the usual easterly stuff we see forecasted, this would be an amazing setup to be just thrown away plus have we ever seen the ECM model anything like this setup since we've been on netweather?

[Frosty.]

One has to look at if the ECM did/has backtracked backtrack? Becauuse it was the FI that was changing really, it is only looking like it did a few days ago but in nearer time. My view is that [even the ECM] is showing cold weather but the armaggeddon is wrong. Cold week to 10 days but mild breaking through...and in time for Christmas. The reason being that the cold signal in my view is just that...a 7-10 day period. I am not convinced this is the real deal yet but a shot across the boughs......but it may be as it looks like being one of those winters.

BFTP

Hi Blast,

How can it even be called a shot across the bows if we end up with the ecm solution which is just for a dry fine week with sunny periods and overnight fog & frost, it's the type of weather we could easily get in oct/nov and winter..normal.