Model Output Discussion

[Neilsouth]

from two

I think Retron makes an excellent point. The ECMWF hasn't had the best verification for a week now:

[Gowon]

One rogue chart that is the total opposite to a very snowy GFS parallel that only came out an hour or so ago, ECM might be right but it is at odds with every other chart going so therefore I don't trust it

Actually, the NOGAPS isn't too dissimilar.

[Frosty.]

I don't think the ECM looks plausible, and lately it has been the model which has changed the most often, while the GFS parallel and UKMO have looked very consistent. The reason I don't find the ECM plausible is that there is no teleconnection support for an Azores high, and very, very little ensemble support for this idea either. If the UKMO had sided with this I would be very concerned but it hasn't so I doubt the ECM 12Z, which has chopped and changed more than most other models, is correct.

I hope you are right, it would be nice if GP could give his view on why the ecm is swimming against the tide of model opinion. I was under the impression that everything was great for a prolonged and increasingly bitterly cold spell with snow showers and severe frosts but i'm far from convinced now.

[cooling climate]

Regarding the first easterly (Mon-Tues), out of the 3 main models only the operational makes it much of a feature! The gefs ensembles clearly show limited support for it: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

If you look on the ensembles and select Hertfordshire for instance the ensembles are rock solid

its the operational that comes out as a milder outlier.

[weather eater]

Actually, the NOGAPS isn't too dissimilar.

Really, here's the NOGAPS at 144hrs

[ChartViewer]

The UKMO Fax charts key tonight.

Also Im inclined to stay with UKMO and GFS as I remember they disregarded ECM the other day for their forecast?

We have the Big 2 of GFS/UKMO still on board some 4/5 days away is key.

However if the overnight Model runs of GFS and UKMO backtrack then it wil be worrying.

I am still remembering GP's post the other day though about the ECM model not to be looked at

with any confidence right now. Hope thats the case still.

Regards

Edited December 10, 2009 by ChartViewer

[NorthantsSnow]

Really, here's the NOGAPS at 144hrs

That's from yesterday when things were still looking really peachy.

Fast forward 24 hrs:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?10-19

Not the worst chart if you live in the east- but never going to lead to prolonged cold. A flirt at best, before the high sinks and the fairytale ends.

[pj cov]

The UKMO Fax charts key tonight.

Also Im inclined to stay with UKMO and GFS as I remember they disregarded ECM the other day for their forecast?

We have the Big 2 of GFS/UKMO still on board some 4/5 days away is key.

However if the overnight Model runs of GFS and UKMO backtrack then it wil be worrying.

I am still remembering GP's post the other day though about the ECM model not to be looked at

with any confidence right now. Hope thats the case still.

Regards

i wonder wot some of the more experienced members make of all this?

a calming word may be needed here,,,

[The Eagle]

from two

The ECM is the best model in the world apparently. It is used by virtually every weather institution in Europe as a primary model and they all fund it. For anybody here to be suggesting that at as little as 72hrs - which is 3 days - that buffoons across Europe are putting these charts out on television for the public and basing their forcasts on it as they are obliged to do whilst thinking this may be hillariously wrong is absolutely incredulous and takes the biscuit. It's simply more likely to be as near the mark, for Europe esspecially, then any other model. 10 times out of 10 the ECM is the best model for Europe. That is why everyone uses it and we don't get it for free. It has not shown any of the dream synoptics the GFS has had in recent weeks anyway apart from once or twice. Sorry for the rant but I do get fed up with silly statements knocking models because they don't show what some want them to show - and posters making statements they are in no way qualified to make. The GFS should not be viewed as the primary model for Europe because it is not. People only think it is more then it is because you get everything free. The reason for that is that not many weather institutions in Europe are daft enough to pay for or even pay too much attention to a model that is designed primarilly, whilst with a global function obviously, for the United States. It would be the same as Europe or the US using JMA output. JMA is obviously great for Japan - it's not as useful here.

/end rant

Edited December 10, 2009 by The Eagle

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Bear in mind what GP has repeatedly said about the ECM taking the HP to our west and it being wrong and not fitting the GWO 4 phasing. There was an ECM output the other day almost identical to this one and it was forced to backtrack immediately. Advice has been to ignore any output which suggests as such and that position has not changed.

The ECM should be back on board tomorrow - if not then you can shoot me instead

[Lewis]

The ECM is the best model in the world apparently. It is used by virtually every weather institution in Europe as a primary model and they all fund it. For anybody here to be suggesting that at as little as 72hrs - which is 3 days - that buffoons across Europe are putting these charts out on television for the public and basing their forcasts on it as they are obliged to do whilst thinking this may be hillariously wrong is absolutely incredulous and takes the biscuit. It's simply more likely to be as near the mark, for Europe esspecially, then any other model. 10 times out of 10 the ECM is the best model for Europe. That is why everyone uses it and we don't get it for free. It has not shown any of the dream synoptics the GFS has had in recent weeks anyway apart from once or twice. Sorry for the rant but I do get fed up with silly statements knocking models because they don't show what some want them to show - and posters making statements they are in no way qualified to make. The GFS should not be viewed as the primary model for Europe because it is not. People only think it is more then it is because you get everything free. The reason for that is that not many weather institutions in Europe are daft enough to pay for or even pay too much attention to a model that is designed primarilly, whilst with a global function obviously, for the United States. It would be the same as Europe or the US using JMA output. JMA is obviously great for Japan - it's not as useful here.

/end rant

Fantastic post, cannot disagree with you at all!

I have stated many time's during the past few days that the GFS is only really good in reliable time frame or nowcasting, and obviously shortwave developments, with the ECM the far more consistent and popular chart especially in the 1-5 day time frame it is the most reliable and consistent model.

A lot of people are disheartened and sometimes they think they can just push aside the ECM and stick with the GFS only because it's something they want to see. It's like saying the JMA is a cracker and the ECM is not, so get rid of the ECM lol!

[Iceberg]

But Mr Eagle the ECM is a medium range model, it is normally very good.

However I've just compared the ECM at 72hrs(the first useful chart it produces) with Meto and the various GFS ensembles and there isn't a single run that backs it up, the ECM has from the very start of it's run put the HP too far south (the 1020 line is over 700 miles further south at 96hrs) and the southerly undercut and associated LP positions in a very different makeup.

If you were to look at te 72hr chart alone nobody could rightly pretend that ECM is right and the rest of the world wrong. !

Sorry ECM is missing a few screws atm and just not handling something correctly.

I have no less confidence after seeing the ECM. !

[weather eater]

That's from yesterday when things were still looking really peachy.

Fast forward 24 hrs:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?10-19

Not the worst chart if you live in the east- but never going to lead to prolonged cold. A flirt at best, before the high sinks and the fairytale ends.

I see what you mean, wetter had obviously not updated, I dont think I'm going to hit any panic buttons all the same.

[Iceberg]

Fantastic post, cannot disagree with you at all!

I have stated many time's during the past few days that the GFS is only really good in reliable time frame or nowcasting, and obviously shortwave developments, with the ECM the far more consistent and popular chart especially in the 1-5 day time frame it is the most reliable and consistent model.

A lot of people are disheartened and sometimes they think they can just push aside the ECM and stick with the GFS only because it's something they want to see. It's like saying the JMA is a cracker and the ECM is not, so get rid of the ECM lol!

But the ECM doesn't produce charts until day 3 ! for very good reasons it specialises in the 144 to 240 range, but if it gets it wrong before this timeframe it struggles al la today.

[NorthantsSnow]

Bear in mind what GP has repeatedly said about the ECM taking the HP to our west and it being wrong and not fitting the GWO 4 phasing. There was an ECM output the other day almost identical to this one and it was forced to backtrack immediately. Advice has been to ignore any output which suggests as such and that position has not changed.

The ECM should be back on board tomorrow - if not then you can shoot me instead

A brave call Tamara. I do hope you're right.

The GME is not too shabby I suppose:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think after this we need to look at the reasons why we cannot get stable High latitude blocking in the winter months, yes the ECM has chopped and changed but the evolution now looks very plausible and the other models are now trending to move the High back SE.

A very sorry episode for the GFS in particular. Best to make the most of at least a more seasonal feel before the return to Atlantic weather.

yeah fully expecting the 00z's to be all like ecm's 12Z, just doesnt happen in the christmas pudding, wish the models only went to 144, but this next week cold spell has always been in FI,

[ribster]

With regard to the ECM, local forecast goes for 12c Sat or Sun (can't remember which), but not really sure where they are getting that from. National doesn't go for anything of the sort, unless local forecast believes ECM is on to something and national is to be updated?

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.mrf.gif

Even the NAO is expected to be well negative over the next 14 days or so, In relation to the MJO in phase 4 and current telleconections I find it very hard to believe our expected greenland high is just guna slip south to be replaced by PV or depressions...

I think the ecmwf might just be performing badly as I have seen from time to time in the past. If the GFS does out peform the ecmwf in the next week or so, there is guna be a lot of people with egg on their face..

Edited December 10, 2009 by Jed Bickerdike

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm a little unsure how the ECM can be 'the best model in the world.' It's a weather model, like any other, and it can be unreliable and offtrack quite a lot of the time, and I think we've seen this happen a few times in the last few days. It is struggling with this setup, just as other models have struggled with other setups, so I am very wary of people backing the ECM output simply because it is the ECM. GP told us to disregard any output ending up with an Azores high, so I think we should just bin the ECM 12Z and wait for the next run, and if the UKMO and GFS come on board with their outlook, which I doubt a fair bit, then we can talk of a huge downgrade, but unless that happens, things are still looking good.

edit: I'll be interested to hear what GP, SM, NS etc have to say about this when they get on the thread.

Edited December 10, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[The Eagle]

the ECM has from the very start of it's run put the HP too far south

The ECM starts at 0 like every model. We don't have access to it. All I am saying is we all fund this model in Europe to forcast for Europe. It cannot be just overlooked. It is the main model. The GFS is not the main model for this part of the world. I just think it is incredulous for anyone to describe the ECM as simply "wrong" at 72hrs. In terms of absolute detail, yes it is wrong, every model is wrong at just 6hrs out. Something is always not right. But in general my point is the ECM is more likely to be right for us then any other model. That is why it is there.

[snowlover2009]

But Mr Eagle the ECM is a medium range model, it is normally very good.

However I've just compared the ECM at 72hrs(the first useful chart it produces) with Meto and the various GFS ensembles and there isn't a single run that backs it up, the ECM has from the very start of it's run put the HP too far south (the 1020 line is over 700 miles further south at 96hrs) and the southerly undercut and associated LP positions in a very different makeup.

If you were to look at te 72hr chart alone nobody could rightly pretend that ECM is right and the rest of the world wrong. !

Sorry ECM is missing a few screws atm and just not handling something correctly.

I have no less confidence after seeing the ECM. !

that is a great post! is it me but as soon as you look at ecm 72 hrs you can already tell what will happen with the high not by instincts, but i thought when i saw ecm 72 i thought no way is this gonna be a good run because of that high, by that i mean sinking as such or going pear shaped. it just looks odd and really by itself. the positioning and timing is really imo

very dreadful for ecm.

when do the ensembles come out anyone?

Edited December 10, 2009 by snowlover2009

[Met4Cast]

But Mr Eagle the ECM is a medium range model, it is normally very good.

However I've just compared the ECM at 72hrs(the first useful chart it produces) with Meto and the various GFS ensembles and there isn't a single run that backs it up, the ECM has from the very start of it's run put the HP too far south (the 1020 line is over 700 miles further south at 96hrs) and the southerly undercut and associated LP positions in a very different makeup.

If you were to look at te 72hr chart alone nobody could rightly pretend that ECM is right and the rest of the world wrong. !

Sorry ECM is missing a few screws atm and just not handling something correctly.

I have no less confidence after seeing the ECM. !

I couldn't agree with you more.

I understand why people are concerned, usually the ECM is a very good model. Although this time around its consistency has been rubbish and thats what you really need to look for when predicting cold spells like this. The charts that show more consistency, which in this case would be the GFS and UKMO (bar the wobble the UKMO had yesterday) are more likely to be the accurate ones. The ECM has chopped and changed quite a lot in the last few days and I think the ECM will be back on board come tomorrow. We still have the big 2 on board, so I'm not worried either.

[PersianPaladin]

Generally speaking; the GFS tends to be better at picking out shortwave spoilers within the T96 timeframe. ECM doesn't look implausible, albeit the errors most likely multiply as the run progresses given the differing energy profile over the subpolar regions countering almost every other model.

Edited December 10, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[NorthantsSnow]

yeah fully expecting the 00z's to be all like ecm's 12Z, just doesnt happen in the christmas pudding, wish the models only went to 144, but this next week cold spell has always been in FI,

I'd hardly call describe T90 as "Fantasy Island." It's less than 4 days away!

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn902.png

[snowlover2009]

With regard to the ECM, local forecast goes for 12c Sat or Sun (can't remember which), but not really sure where they are getting that from. National doesn't go for anything of the sort, unless local forecast believes ECM is on to something and national is to be updated?

WTH, that is far from wrong, good chance of it being around 2c in a few spots under fog.