Model Output Discussion

[NorthantsSnow]

ECM +168 actually a downgrade on this morning with the high not shifting NW and as such the cold push ends up further south and east. Good for southern France, but pants for the UK.

Edited December 10, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM 12Z is one of the worst run we've seen for a few days, but then again we have really been spoiled by some exceptional charts in the last few days. still, with the UKMO on board with the northeasterly I find it hard to be too pessimistic, as many have already said it would take a lot to stop a cold and snowy spell occuring next week.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm is a really really bad run and that is a MAJOR wobble happening right now.

Heights falling to the North at t144 and that high is going to sink back south.All the cold stuff right into europe by passing

the UK.

Huston................

Edited December 10, 2009 by happy days

[bluearmy]

sm wont like the 00z ecm. infact it wasnt great this morning either. would be unusual for this model to get things wrong after repeating but not unheard of. given the massive ens support for the upper high to reside between greenland and iceland and drift slowly towards canada, i would have to question the ecm placing of the block. however, the trend today is for the high to hold ridging further se, keeping the coldest air to our se. not bad but not nearly as good as we've been seeing and little chance of anything snowy before end of next week if it continues.

[Snowstorm1]

This wont be sorted to +6 if the models keep playing around like this My money would be placed on gfs/ukmo but if the ecm is right i would be sadly congratulating the model but keep your chin up lads and if tommorrow all the models trend towards the ECM i have the prozac at the ready and ill need most of it but if ECM trends towards to the other models ill be partying!

[Nick F]

Unfortunately further low(s) crossing down from Nern Greenland/Svalbard area moving across Scandinavia keeping the deep cold air locked up over NE Europe/NW Russia on ECM tonight.

However, I'd be rather cautious with modeling anything developing that far north in the arctic circle, particularly as it is a data sparse area. So perhaps best not to look to far ahead with any confidence ...

[kold weather]

Pretty awful 12z ECM as others have said...however I will once again refer to what GP has said time and time again and that is we are heading back to phase 4 of the GWO...simply put...it does NOT favour what the ECM is showing and thats an upper high to our west, the atlantic forcing from phase 4 suggests a LOW would be trying to get there instead of a high as can be seen by just about every other model out there attempting an undercut.

Saying that the 12z GFS does flirt with this idea as well...however I'm willing to bet the models will somewhat back away from that idea again tomorrow.

[The Eagle]

One, poor, model actually supports it somewhat. We are definitely near downgrade territory. What worries me is that we could now have the typical GFS 72 - 120hr spectacular backtrack. For those new to watching the models and think just because the GFS is at a higher resolution available to us and looks somehow bullet proof at 72hrs....think again. It can all turn around with just one run. Happens every year at some point.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-156.png?10-19

Hopefully not this time.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Again, just to pick up on the ppn/snow that people have mentioned on the GFS op run.

The below is the 12z ppn charts for Derbyshire:

The op run seems to be giving good ppn amounts, and has done over the last few days. But, looking at the ensembles, it is seen that it looks quite low ppn as a concensus.

This, I would say, is why other models are perhaps not a snowy. Its not the GFS vs. others, its the GFS op run vs. the others.

Get the cold first, then worry about the ppn.

Edited December 10, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

If that ecm run is correct there won't be a cold spell at all

You couldnt make it up.

[karyo]

The ECM is a dreams crusher today!

No initial easterly and very uninspiring for later next week.

It keeps a lot of low pressure over the Artic - it seems it hasn't seen the AO forecasts!

Karyo

Edited December 10, 2009 by karyo

[Frosty.]

Chances of a severe wintry spell are beginning to fade now with another disappointing ecm, 2 in a row now so it must be a new trend? High Pressure too close to the uk and after the initial weak E'ly, the N'ly is even further away than the 00z showed. It's quite a confusing picture now because most of the other models are still indicating an arctic blast next week with a chance of snow. It will be interesting to see which model has to back down, one or the other will by tomorrow as the new pattern is slowly entering the reliable timeframe.

[cooling climate]

The mighty unflappable ECM.It looks as though we may have found its Achilles heel,

northern blocking and -AO.

The model has not been performing well of late and seemed in trouble from the word

go tonight.This run is another example of that I think.

[Snowyowl9]

Definately don`t want that ECM run it`s a shocker.

Theres a shortwave at T72 to start with.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm721.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn721.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm721.gif

No good looking too far ahead by the looks of things.

[J10]

ECM ensembles are going to be important tonight, it will be very interesting to see how much support there is for the operational run. If the ECM is right it not exactly going to be that warm either, despite a very disappointing run.

It is also strange in that there are significant differences as close as T+72. Definitely a case of needing more runs.

[Harsh Climate]

If this is the beggining of the end, atleast the downgrade has been very slow and not just frust upon us at the 11th hour! Still im staying neutral, iv not seen enough evidence to come to a viable conclusion, whether it be good or bad.

I think what ever happens the conclusion is going to be a painfully slow one and we should just enjoy the ride

Are you for real! Meto GFS etc all going for cold AND Snowy and one ECM and you are happy to forecast just a chilly spell! Even if you blend all the models together and calculate the average it will still be a snowy spell. UKMO are being bullish about snow and they are the experts IMO

To be honest there has been 2/3 dodgy to bad ecmwf runs now, untill the ecmwf is on board we are right to be worried..

[LomondSnowstorm]

Chances of a severe wintry spell are beginning to fade now with another disappointing ecm, 2 in a row now so it must be a new trend? High Pressure too close to the uk and after the initial weak E'ly, the N'ly is even further away than the 00z showed. It's quite a confusing picture now because most of the other models are still indicating an arctic blast next week with a chance of snow. It will be interesting to see which model has to back down, one or the other will by tomorrow as the new pattern is slowly entering the reliable timeframe.

I don't think the ECM looks plausible, and lately it has been the model which has changed the most often, while the GFS parallel and UKMO have looked very consistent. The reason I don't find the ECM plausible is that there is no teleconnection support for an Azores high, and very, very little ensemble support for this idea either. If the UKMO had sided with this I would be very concerned but it hasn't so I doubt the ECM 12Z, which has chopped and changed more than most other models, is correct.

[bluearmy]

ecm and ukmo quite different with pressure patterns by T96/T120. if you can bear to wait, you'll know by 11pm when the FAXES update if the ecm has any credence with its op run.

[John Snow]

One rogue chart that is the total opposite to a very snowy GFS parallel that only came out an hour or so ago, ECM might be right but it is at odds with every other chart going so therefore I don't trust it

[cooling climate]

Looking on the n/hemisphere charts at t168 and you have the operational and the

parallel run both showing 1050-1055 heights over Greenland where as the ECM has

1035 heights several hundred miles south of Iceland.

To me that says it all, the ECM is struggling and trying to play catch up.

[TEITS]

Well after viewing the ECM I feel as though i've been kicked in the balls by a Beckham freekick!

However we have seen some relatively poor ECM runs recently and yet the Met O outlook continues to disregard it. Now whether this continues remains to be seen. As for the E,ly early next week, well I wouldn't be surprised if the eventual outcome is something inbetween the GFS/UKMO/ECM i.e not quiet as potent as the GFS but colder than the UKMO.

The only assumption we can make is it will turn colder and thats all we know at this stage.

[kold weather]

What worries me most is the 12z GFS is so very close to showing a similar set-up, its only the fact that the southerly jet is much stronger and the high starts off a good bit further north that saves the UK, but look at the 180hrs 12z GFS and you'll see the hallmarks of a sinking high...

Tomorrows 0z runs are so very key, and we still have the UKMO onboard which is a very key thing, plus 72-120hrs is not the ECM's typical strong point, it tends to better past 120hrs as thats what it was really designed to do...

I'm still rather suspect fof the ECM..it full stop goes against what GP has been highlightening for some time, not to trust any model that goes against the GWO phase 4 composite and since thats been a very good guide thus far, I've got no reason to think the ECM is right other then the usual paranoia and the usual feeling of the inevitable downgrade being upon us given recent history.

[karyo]

Regarding the first easterly (Mon-Tues), out of the 3 main models only the operational makes it much of a feature! The gefs ensembles clearly show limited support for it: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

The ECM makes nothing of it and the UKMO is somewhere in the middle.

We really need the ECM to come on board but I am really worried it won't now, as it is the second run in a row that looks unfavourable for cold and a huge downgrade from yesterday's 12z!

This is a window of opportunity for us that doesn't open often and it will be a shame to be wasted like that!

Anyway, I am not writing anything off yet but the next few runs are crucial!

Karyo

[NorthantsSnow]

One rogue chart that is the total opposite to a very snowy GFS parallel that only came out an hour or so ago, ECM might be right but it is at odds with every other chart going so therefore I don't trust it

This follows an equally dire ECM 00z this morning. If it was just the one run then I'd be inclined to agree, but two in a row is very concerning.

Anyway, if the ECM is right, the new GFS is going to have a shocking reliability rate past about T72, even worse than the current GFS.

[weather eater]

Given the uncertainties in the modelling between 96 and 120hrs I think it would be a mistake to read too much into the ECM runs, it shows no consistency, until it does and the other models start to match it then I see no need to get hung-up about it.