Model Output Discussion

[londonsnow]

interesting gfs. good looking in the reliable, a bit odd in the unreliable. those two atlantic lows spinning around and trying to spoil christmas day look very odd. in the short term, plenty of cold air, and a forecasters nightmare. fun though. long live the greenie heights. have a great saturday eve folks. just poured my first glass

[TEITS]

Nice to be back.

Well the ECM has to be one of the best runs I have ever seen since I started following the models.

At the moment as much as I would love the ECM to verify I do like to remain consistent in my posts and say the GFS is more likely. I say this due to the consistency of the GFS but also due to the UKMO. However what the ECM illustrates is next weeks E,ly isn't resolved yet and the GFS/UKMO could easily change to the ECM. We need to wait until at least +72hrs before this is resolved.

I will have a little ramp and say that if the ECM verfied we would recieve an absolute hammering causing widespread chaos.

Forgot to add that im 90% certain the +120 fax chart will back the UKMO. However I can imagine allsorts of ramping if they back the ECM!

Edited December 12, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Harsh Climate]

Firstly, you didn't get in first , and secondly, it does look quite similar

you swiiiine.. lol. Ye certainly does, only difference is the 850s in 1987 was a bit colder.. :lol:

[cold snap]

Nice to be back.

Well the ECM has to be one of the best runs I have ever seen since I started following the models.

At the moment as much as I would love the ECM to verify I do like to remain consistent in my posts and say the GFS is more likely. I say this due to the consistency of the GFS but also due to the UKMO. However what the ECM illustrates is next weeks E,ly isn't resolved yet and the GFS/UKMO could easily change to the ECM. We need to wait until at least +72hrs before this is resolved.

I will have a little ramp and say that if the ECM verfied we would recieve an absolute hammering causing widespread chaos.

Are we ever going to get full agreement?lol

This has been dragging on for days now.

[Duncan McAlister]

Are we ever going to get full agreement?lol

This has been dragging on for days now.

Since Monday or Tuesday it's been 'in another 48 hours we'll know for sure' :lol:

[bluearmy]

am i the only person to see consistency from ecm since thursdays strange 12z run? the overall pattern to T240 is continually repeated. expect some vry cold ens later. (not that they have been anything but that for the past few days). the T96/T120 FAXES later will be revealing.

[Harsh Climate]

So pleased about the latest ecm, certainly lifted my spirits, also looked through some of the gefs 12z esembles earyier and there was a few runs going for a similar scenario, maybe this could be the new order of the day? :lol:

member 10 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-10-1-162.png?12

member 14 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-14-1-126.png?12

member 6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-6-1-132.png?12

The show goes on....

[MR EXTREMES]

im glade i wrote what i said about the ecm before it came out,

because i blow my trumpet and say i was right.

And clearly is a new trend building yeasterday was great this morning was pretty good to this afternoon the much loved ukmo dissapointed people,

once again the forum went into meltdown.

But its just confusion with shorter term setups is playing havok with longerterm i think,

my opion get ya wollies out.

Although snowfall is a cert where it will fall and how heavy a silly question right now,

because 24 to 48 hours is within the boundry of less error.

Im very pleased with 3 days now of great charts from all models.:lol:

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The second cold wave from the east looks allot more potent on the ECM 12z:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

On the UKMO 12Z it doesnt look as potent but still cold none the less.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

So diffrences at t-120 on the strength of the cold, but it looks like overall the cold theme will continue for over a week.

Will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles when they come out.

Jamie

[pyrotech]

If the 12z came off the ice and frost would be so thick it'd almost look like snow anyway by the 20th!

Paralell goes for a slightly different option then the op run, bringing down the low a bit quicker and so we only spend a short time in the middle under weak high pressure before a weak northerly comes down.

Anything past 120hrs is going to be FI though, there is a trend though for a weak high pressure cell to build ahead of the upper low coming down from the Greenland/scandinavia region.

12z---not as cold weathernewbie???....it has maxes of -2/3C widespread. Whilst I think that run is extreme its more cold then just about any run we've seen in this cold spell thus far!

Hi Kold Weather

Steve thinks that the parralel is pretty consistant and so i assume likely to be more accurate.

In your post above i read it as you prefer the operational, just wondered why as i thought parralel was better short and long term, just wondered what i was missing or what you see from the parralel that i can not see

[LomondSnowstorm]

The UKMO is by far the worst run in terms of the easterly, which is not good as it has tended to be the most consistent (barring the GFS parallel). Hopefully, the ECM sorted out it's demons a few days ago, and is now picking up on a new development which the others will follow, but I'm not convinced by one run. If the GFS and the 00Z ECM are similar to the ECM 12Z then I'll be absolutely ecstatic, but I slightly doubt that will happen. This does make the fax chart a wee bit harder to produce now, though!!

LS

Edited December 12, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[John Snow]

If the ECM comes off the army will be working overtime :lol:

[The Eagle]

Once again, like the GFS, ECM shows us locked in to the cold pattern. Stunning run. Enough said I think.

Edited December 12, 2009 by The Eagle

[Frosty.]

If the ECM comes off the army will be working overtime :lol:

ECM 12z is a very cold run but shows that milder weather would arrive before christmas if it ran beyond T+240, ukmo 12Z being rubbished but looks promising for a N'ly at T+144. More great models today but the trend seems to be growing for a return to mild zoneality either just before or during xmas day/boxing day.

[The Eagle]

ECM 12z is a very cold run but shows that milder weather would arrive before christmas

If the ECM came off there would still be snow on the ground by Christmas.

Edited December 12, 2009 by The Eagle

[Coast]

Interesting times and lets continue Model Output Discussion here: netweather.tv/model-output-discussion