East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[PureOcean]

i think it is stupid how the bbc keep changing their minds with the graphics! i think the best thing to do is look at the fax charts and make your own mind up! south east in my opinion is still going to get a good covering of snow on thurs/fri!

This is exactly why you should not take any notice of the BBC anymore, the past 5 years have been a contant decline of error and failed weather systems. I have a simple theory, if they predict it bad, you don't get it bad, if they predict a small covering you get a good dump... if they say it will be 25C its 29 or 30C.... it goes on. When I am in the US storm chasing they always say BBC and UK Met office is poor now, many years ago they were rather good.

Anyway best to just work the charts yourself, and get excited by them. I would also say that the fun that will happen because of the BBC broadcast will be interesting, local road networks will not grit because of Rain, others will think it will not happen etc... and the general public will just follow suit!

Now regarding snow for Kent, Snow is possible on Wednesday but I would edge more of something fun from Thursday to Saturday and then again Sunday maybe, but best thing because weather on the British Isles changes so fast, it would be better to start to get excited once actual clouds start to appear on the horizon!

Happy Hunting, I got my snow chains ready and waiting!

[VillagePlank]

0C here on top of a hill at Rochester

[saint]

Rather than worrying about BBC graphics, just look at the overall situation.

During Thursday evening we are going to have bitterly cold upper temps of -13C moving over a relatively warm N sea on a fairly strong ENE,ly.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs602.gif

I have no doubts this will cause significant convection over the N Sea. The risk of heavy snow showers will first move into E Anglia but then the risk moves further S in the SE corner as the night progresses.

This may sound stupid TEIT's But could these showers join together to make larger bands? (Apart from a possible Thames Streamer of course)

[Upgrade]

Rather than worrying about BBC graphics, just look at the overall situation.

During Thursday evening we are going to have bitterly cold upper temps of -13C moving over a relatively warm N sea on a fairly strong ENE,ly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs602.gif

I have no doubts this will cause significant convection over the N Sea. The risk of heavy snow showers will first move into E Anglia but then the risk moves further S in the SE corner as the night progresses.

that chart shows even better potential than the thames snow streamer last year .

[yamkin]

Temp here is -0.5c <_<

BBC24 & Sky News are not showing as much snow on their charts, but Francis Wilson mentioned possible big dump if snow on Friday :lol:

[saint]

This is exactly why you should not take any notice of the BBC anymore, the past 5 years have been a contant decline of error and failed weather systems. I have a simple theory, if they predict it bad, you don't get it bad, if they predict a small covering you get a good dump... if they say it will be 25C its 29 or 30C.... it goes on. When I am in the US storm chasing they always say BBC and UK Met office is poor now, many years ago they were rather good.

Anyway best to just work the charts yourself, and get excited by them. I would also say that the fun that will happen because of the BBC broadcast will be interesting, local road networks will not grit because of Rain, others will think it will not happen etc... and the general public will just follow suit!

Now regarding snow for Kent, Snow is possible on Wednesday but I would edge more of something fun from Thursday to Saturday and then again Sunday maybe, but best thing because weather on the British Isles changes so fast, it would be better to start to get excited once actual clouds start to appear on the horizon!

Happy Hunting, I got my snow chains ready and waiting!

Ummm sorrry but can I just say I like your avatar?????:lol:<_<

[Upgrade]

Temp here is -0.5c <_<

BBC24 & Sky News are not showing as much snow on their charts, but Francis Wilson mentioned possible big dump if snow on Friday :lol:

I'm looking forward to a big dump on Friday.

Edited December 15, 2009 by jimmyay

[BucksSnow]

ive seen the latest forecasts on the bbc and im flabergasted as one time the whole souht would get heavy snow and now it just south east and the east.

i just hope it comes far enough inland for the bucks area.

most of kent should get snow

[Neilsouth]

ive seen the latest forecasts on the bbc and im flabergasted as one time the whole souht would get heavy snow and now it just south east and the east.

i just hope it comes far enough inland for the bucks area.

most of kent should get snow

Bbc forecasts are about as consistant as the models!.. Furthermore each forecaster forecast's different things <_<

[Ben_Cambs]

Dont get to worried about the BBC graphics and charts! We are still in for the snow, GFS 18z on the way soon, lets hope its an upgrade! The BBC charts are unsure about the levels of snow and where it will fall, As shown on the 18:30 forecast, EA and the SE will get the most, and showers will get inland to central areas. The 22:33 forecast will interesting to watch!

[BucksSnow]

Dont get to worried about the BBC graphics and charts! We are still in for the snow, GFS 18z on the way soon, lets hope its an upgrade! The BBC charts are unsure about the levels of snow and where it will fall, As shown on the 18:30 forecast, EA and the SE will get the most, and showers will get inland to central areas. The 22:33 forecast will interesting to watch!

would you class wycombe as south east

[Shutterbug Netty]

Room for one more on the temperature recording?

Currently -1.3 with a dp of -2.4

This has been fluctuating quite a bit tonight, can anyone tell me if this is significant?

[Ben_Cambs]

would you class wycombe as south east

Dont know really, I think you will see some snow, probably not as much as some further East, You may see 2-4cm of snow

[Upgrade]

would you class wycombe as south east

not really , but i wouldnt worry too much. You will get snow at some point in the next week or two.

Reading the technical thread, it does seem like we are in for a winter with more cold than mild, and some quite decent cold spells at that. we could even have a white christmas!

[TEITS]

As some of you know im obsessed with E,lys and this with good reason. From a very young age I quickly learn't that an E,ly is whats required to bring snow to my region. I even used to look at the direction that the clouds were moving in winter as an indicator. Most of the time this used to be a very accurate way of knowing whether snow was on its way.

Lets have a look at what happened in Feb this year. We had a similiar flow i.e ENE,ly with similiar upper temps. Now some of you remember that a rather intense streamer developed during this period. However the difference is the N sea temps are warmer at the moment compared to Feb 2nd and for this reason I would expect convection to be greater and more widespread.

Going back to the BBC and I remember from past forecasts they always used to play down the snow potential. Normally it wasn't until 24hrs away that the forecast would change from scattered snow showers to prolonged heavy snow. My point is if the models continue with the same trend then expect the BBC forecasts to upgrade from tomorrow onwards, especially Thursday morning.

[maidstone weather]

Remember - the BBC low resolution charts last week didn't show much precip for the southeast over last weekend, yet I received 18mm in total!

[Tim Bland]

Latest forecast from Francis wilson is more on the money than the BBC in my opinion Watch it here - www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPIn-jdo24Q

[PureOcean]

Ummm sorrry but can I just say I like your avatar?????:lol:B)

Yep many of you will remember that from last winter, I only use it in the winter... just to keep you all smiling!

Just a bit of fun!

[Upgrade]

Lets have a look at what happened in Feb this year. We had a similiar flow i.e ENE,ly with similiar upper temps. Now some of you remember that a rather intense streamer developed during this period. However the difference is the N sea temps are warmer at the moment compared to Feb 2nd and for this reason I would expect convection to be greater and more widespread.

that's just been my thinking TEITS. We could see multiple streamers, and longer periods of snow, over a couple of days. They are imprecise in their nature but its possible we could see another thames streamer, as this is looking ENE again which is what we in the london area need.

[saint]

As some of you know im obsessed with E,lys and this with good reason. From a very young age I quickly learn't that an E,ly is whats required to bring snow to my region. I even used to look at the direction that the clouds were moving in winter as an indicator. Most of the time this used to be a very accurate way of knowing whether snow was on its way.

Lets have a look at what happened in Feb this year. We had a similiar flow i.e ENE,ly with similiar upper temps. Now some of you remember that a rather intense streamer developed during this period. However the difference is the N sea temps are warmer at the moment compared to Feb 2nd and for this reason I would expect convection to be greater and more widespread.

Going back to the BBC and I remember from past forecasts they always used to play down the snow potential. Normally it wasn't until 24hrs away that the forecast would change from scattered snow showers to prolonged heavy snow. My point is if the models continue with the same trend then expect the BBC forecasts to upgrade from tomorrow onwards, especially Thursday morning.

So TEITS, do you think this snow could challenge Feb's amounts?

[Ben_Cambs]

As some of you know im obsessed with E,lys and this with good reason. From a very young age I quickly learn't that an E,ly is whats required to bring snow to my region. I even used to look at the direction that the clouds were moving in winter as an indicator. Most of the time this used to be a very accurate way of knowing whether snow was on its way.

Lets have a look at what happened in Feb this year. We had a similiar flow i.e ENE,ly with similiar upper temps. Now some of you remember that a rather intense streamer developed during this period. However the difference is the N sea temps are warmer at the moment compared to Feb 2nd and for this reason I would expect convection to be greater and more widespread.

Going back to the BBC and I remember from past forecasts they always used to play down the snow potential. Normally it wasn't until 24hrs away that the forecast would change from scattered snow showers to prolonged heavy snow. My point is if the models continue with the same trend then expect the BBC forecasts to upgrade from tomorrow onwards, especially Thursday morning.

I agree fully with that point about how they play down snow potential until the latest possible moment. I remember in the last day of January (Saturday) they played down the snow potential for Cambridgeshire, for the Sunday night. Then on the Sunday following early flurries, I watched their forecast again and it was much improved with snow falling throughout the night! So yes they do downgrade their forecasts until the last possible moment like you mentioned 24 hours before until they upgrade it to longer, heavier snow

[BucksSnow]

not really , but i wouldnt worry too much. You will get snow at some point in the next week or two.

Reading the technical thread, it does seem like we are in for a winter with more cold than mild, and some quite decent cold spells at that. we could even have a white christmas!

ok thanks guys and you snowman

[Leigh]

Just a piece of advise please. I am taking my wife and two small children to center parcs on Friday. The issue is I will be going from Chafford Hundred in Essex to Elevon Forest in East Anglia. will the weather hold up so I can drive us all there? We are planning at leaving at 9am on the FridY (after some mcdonalds brekkie yum yum). But by reading peoples posts the worst of the snow will be Thursday / Friday.

Thanks for any advise

From a complete novice

[ickledoozer]

hello to all snow lovers,been addicted to this site since the first signs of snow were mentioned last week.Im the first to ramp snow to anyone and everyone,but usually this end up with me bein laughed at,when this doesnt happen.People please tell me can i ramp this event up or shall i keep my snowy mouth shut?,im in maldon essex by the way

Hi bigjay78,

Welcome!

I went to school in Maldon!

It looks good for all areas, particularly in the South East. It is really difficult to predict snow, even at close range. It does look like temperatures will favour snow so it's all eyes to the radar to look for bands of precipitation or developing precip.

Doozer

[Met4Cast]

This has been fluctuating quite a bit tonight, can anyone tell me if this is significant?

If you have cloud coming and going, this would explain why temperatures are fluctuating a little. Its currently -0.4c here with a Dew Point of -2.3c.

I'm hoping to see some snow tomorrow on the leading edge before it turns back to rain