East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[snowking]

Alex Deakin.

It must be based on the UKMO's 0z and 12z output. The charts for day 3 onwards always change in the evening and again in the following morning. Between say now and 9am tomorrow morning they will use the same charts for Thursday and Friday which shows very little snow on it, especially when compared to the ones used during today.

So I would presume when the charts update on the BBC at 20:00GMT every day it's based on the 12z model, and at 08:00GMT it's based on the 0z model?

Absolutely, I'd just be very surprised to see them going with the automated UKMO output rather than the human-produced FAX...I think things will be back to normal tomorrow morning

The other thing is whether or not they were using the lower resolution graphics or the higher when they forecast later in the week. Its hard to explain but essentially when the BBC produce longer term forecasts in their graphics the graphics are much chunkier to represent where showers will fall, where as with the higher res graphics they use in the shorter terms they will generally just show 1 or 2 showers on the graphics, but this generally just represents the showery nature of the precipitation, so this could be another factor

Ill try and get a look at the 8.30 forecast, but also worth pointing out to take the graphics shown with a pinch of salt, they're not there in showers situations to show exactly where the showers will fall, because quite simply nobody does

Kind Regards

SK

[SMU]

Hi-Lets all do another temp check at 10pm-

Temp on the car has dropped to 1c now & the skies are clearing- which is all good news-

Not long now till we see some white stuff...

S

[Met4Cast]

Alex Deakin.

It must be based on the UKMO's 0z and 12z output. The charts for day 3 onwards always change in the evening and again in the following morning. Between say now and 9am tomorrow morning they will use the same charts for Thursday and Friday which shows very little snow on it, especially when compared to the ones used during today.

So I would presume when the charts update on the BBC at 20:00GMT every day it's based on the 12z model, and at 08:00GMT it's based on the 0z model?

What a ridiculous way for them to forecast. Surely they can't base their forecasts on one run and one model? No wonder they always get it wrong

[maidstone weather]

Absolutely, I'd just be very surprised to see them going with the automated UKMO output rather than the human-produced FAX...I think things will be back to normal tomorrow morning

The other thing is whether or not they were using the lower resolution graphics or the higher when they forecast later in the week. Its hard to explain but essentially when the BBC produce longer term forecasts in their graphics the graphics are much chunkier to represent where showers will fall, where as with the higher res graphics they use in the shorter terms they will generally just show 1 or 2 showers on the graphics, but this generally just represents the showery nature of the precipitation, so this could be another factor

Ill try and get a look at the 8.30 forecast, but also worth pointing out to take the graphics shown with a pinch of salt, they're not there in showers situations to show exactly where the showers will fall, because quite simply nobody does

Kind Regards

SK

Yeah, it was their lower resolution (day 3 onwards). It showed widespread snow earlier for eastern areas, now been reduced to a few flurries in the northeast on Thursday.

I'm not worried, when all other models favour more precipitation than what they're showing

Edit: Dan it's only their low resolution that updates twice a day (day 3 -> )

their higher resolution (up to 48 hours) updates at least 4 times a day (pretty much like the GFS does)

Edited December 15, 2009 by maidstone weather

[snowking]

Yeah, it was their lower resolution (day 3 onwards). It showed widespread snow earlier for eastern areas, now been reduced to a few flurries in the northeast on Thursday.

I'm not worried, when all other models favour more precipitation than what they're showing

Edit: Dan it's only their low resolution that updates twice a day (day 3 -> )

their higher resolution (up to 48 hours) updates at least 4 times a day (pretty much like the GFS does)

Yeah absolutely, and to be honest even looking at the FAX charts the overnight period thursday will be the period EA and the SE get the heavier falls

SK

[Kent Snow]

Hi-Lets all do another temp check at 10pm-

Temp on the car has dropped to 1c now & the skies are clearing- which is all good news-

Not long now till we see some white stuff...

S

-3.1C now with completely clear skies.

[BucksSnow]

i was getting really worried too..expecting a lot in wycombe and now i have seen the bbc forecast not too sure

[snowking]

Having just seen the 8.30 forecast too its pretty obvious that they're unsure about the distribution.

I can't say this with any certainty but i'd assume that certain forecasters would be more likely to stick their neck out than others.....Rob McElwee and Dan Corbett being two i can think of (Rob McCelwee who back in 2003 predicted a polar low from over a week away!). Alex may be a little more uncertain given this evenings output, which on the whole has actually upgraded potential snowfall

They're probably waiting until tomorrow before putting too much detail on the forecast, but given the uncertainty you are likely to see graphics changing from forecast to forecast

SK

[VillagePlank]

The missus is going out in the car in a mo' I shall get her to report back thermometer reading! In the meantime, www.xcweather.co.uk for an overall picture ...

[Blake7]

The temp in Ramsgate Kent is fluctuating between +0.6C and -0.5 ... the lowest its been this evening so far is -0.9c

[snowking]

Well stansted airport reporting fog

No such signs here. Readings there are -1c/-1c Temp/DP

DP is up from -2c 30 mins ago, but then it did this earlier this evening too

Very frosty out there already

SK

[VillagePlank]

The missus is going out in the car in a mo' I shall get her to report back thermometer reading! In the meantime, www.xcweather.co.uk for an overall picture ...

Cor blimey me guv' Missus just opened the door - it's cold out! Should have temp reading in out 10 minutes.

Edited December 15, 2009 by VillagePlank

[chilly milly]

Absolutely Zero here. 0.0c Dew point -2.9c

Temp has been rising for last hour as we were below freezing.

[londonsnow]

Absolutely Zero here. 0.0c Dew point -2.9c

Temp has been rising for last hour as we were below freezing.

glad its absolutely zero and not absolute zero. that could cause problems!!!! above zero in london, but then what do you expect with the urban radiator on permenantly

[Tn9]

Absolutely Zero here. 0.0c Dew point -2.9c

Temp has been rising for last hour as we were below freezing.

-1.8c dp -3.5c RH 88 percent ,im not looking to see if its clear or not as i have just got out shower

[clark3r]

Hi JJ,

I think thats very much the order of the day. The charts at this stage start to become fairly useless given their resolution, unless you are lucky enough the have the NMM on the net weather extra subscription (well worth it by the way!). The FAX charts are the other valuable source of information if you understand them, as these are hand-drawn (so to speak, its done on computer obviously!) by Met Office forecasters, rather than being automatically generated by computer models

Thursday and Friday, as with any showery setups, is very much uncertain - however tomorrow we have a band of sleet/snow moving in during the latter part of the morning, turning back to rain in some parts later on

Kind Regards

SK

i think it is stupid how the bbc keep changing their minds with the graphics! i think the best thing to do is look at the fax charts and make your own mind up! south east in my opinion is still going to get a good covering of snow on thurs/fri!

[chilly milly]

glad its absolutely zero and not absolute zero. that could cause problems!!!! above zero in london, but then what do you expect with the urban radiator on permenantly

I know I thought that whilst I was typing it lol.

Just turned my heating up. It must be cold.

[donna-m]

Temp 1c and dp -2.5 and a few clouds around

[Matty J]

Currently 0.2c with a DP of -1 in my part of Essex.

[TEITS]

Rather than worrying about BBC graphics, just look at the overall situation.

During Thursday evening we are going to have bitterly cold upper temps of -13C moving over a relatively warm N sea on a fairly strong ENE,ly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs602.gif

I have no doubts this will cause significant convection over the N Sea. The risk of heavy snow showers will first move into E Anglia but then the risk moves further S in the SE corner as the night progresses.

[Neilsouth]

i think it is stupid how the bbc keep changing their minds with the graphics! i think the best thing to do is look at the fax charts and make your own mind up! south east in my opinion is still going to get a good covering of snow on thurs/fri!

So the met are not going for snow now ?

-3.0c here

[smich]

- 1.3 here in Barnet, dewpoint - 2.2

Looking forward to the next week.....

smich

[donna-m]

Just turned my heating up. It must be cold.

Yes gas bills are going to be high in Jan lets just hope we get the snow then it'll be worth it

[bigjay78]

hello to all snow lovers,been addicted to this site since the first signs of snow were mentioned last week.Im the first to ramp snow to anyone and everyone,but usually this end up with me bein laughed at,when this doesnt happen.People please tell me can i ramp this event up or shall i keep my snowy mouth shut?,im in maldon essex by the way

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Rather than worrying about BBC graphics, just look at the overall situation.

During Thursday evening we are going to have bitterly cold upper temps of -13C moving over a relatively warm N sea on a fairly strong ENE,ly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs602.gif

I have no doubts this will cause significant convection over the N Sea. The risk of heavy snow showers will first move into E Anglia but then the risk moves further S in the SE corner as the night progresses.

Do you have any idea as to why the BBC forecast people seemed to jump at one chart?

BTW, Deakin back on news channel now.

Brief hint at heavy snow on Thursday and Friday - methinks a backtrack! <_<