East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Met4Cast]

Looking good - I'll post a forecast in a sec :blink:

Edited December 15, 2009 by Daniel AKA WMD

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Anyone mind if I pop in here? :wub: Just wanted to say that it's looking very nice these next few days for snow in your part of the world, and hope you all get some good amounts. Anyway, I'll be on my way...:blink:

Thanks for the good wishes. :wub: :wub:

[tinybill]

UK regions: East of England Yorkshire & Humber East Midlands North East EnglandHeavy SnowThu 17 DecThere is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting eastern parts of England. Showers will readily turn to snow giving local accumulations of 5 to 10cm.

Issued at: 1053 Tue 15 Dec

UK regions: East of England London & South East England East MidlandsHeavy SnowFri 18 DecThere is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting southeastern parts of England. Snow showers, especially during the first half of the day, will give local accumulations of 5 to 10cm.

Issued at: 1105 Tue 15 Dec

[saint]

Interesting to note that Herts Highways think it may well snow tomorrow.......

http://www.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/4795722.Hertfordshire_gritters_prepare_roads_for_snow/

No hint that it will turn to rain......

At least they have started gritting, in Feb they ran out of grit/salt by the end of the snowy week!:blink:

[Met4Cast]

We're now moving into a timeframe where forecasting snow becomes a little easier. Heres a quick outlook of what we can expect over the next few days. (This forecast is for the South-East of England only)

Wednesday

An area of rain, sleet and snow will push down from the North reaching our region sometime through the afternoon. The leading edge of this front is likely to be of sleet or snow specially over higher ground, although we could see snow down to lower levels for a short period of time. Light accumulations are possible specially over higher ground 1-2cm before it turns quickly back to sleet and then rain. As this front clears skies will clear and a frost will begin to develop, with the rain, sleet and melted snow the ground will be wet and with temperatures likely to fall below freezing there could be problems with ice come Thursday morning.

Thursday

A very cold and frosty start to the day, isolated sleet and snow showers across Eastern Kent to start the day, as we head through the day these sleet and snow showers will push further inland and could crop up just about anywhere. We're not expecting too many problems at this stage, light coverings are possible although snow showers fairly light with the heaviest being in the East, and later along the South-Coast specially towards the evening.

Friday

There is still some uncertainly about Thursday night into Friday, although current models suggest we'll see a more organised area of snow moving down from the North across our region. I think many areas will see some snow through Friday with accumulations of 3-5cm across a wide area, with perhaps 10cm being recorded locally, particularly over higher ground. I think the heaviest of the snow will fall in the Early hours of Friday morning and will turn more showery through the later stages of the morning and through the afternoon. But then through the evening there are some suggestions that we'll see another area of heavy snow moving through. The heaviest again being across the East of our region perhaps adding another 3-5cm on top of what we're likely to see during the early hours. Higher ground will be more favoured to see the snow settling, although I think even down to lower levels the snow is likely to settle.

Its hard to say which areas will see the most amount of snow, but after a cold night on Thursday and frozen surfaces, any snow that does fall will settle so just about anywhere at risk from accumulations.

There is still a lot of uncertainly over Fridays snowfall amounts so this will be updated on Thursday. This is how things currently stand. So turning even colder over the next couple of days with many areas being at an increased risk from sleet or snow showers.

[Barometric]

Well here very close to the North Kent coast in Iwade the temp briefly made it to 1c before heading back down around 3.30ish. Had frost all day in the garden which for this part of the world is a rarity in itself.

All eyes on tomorrow PM. With elevation I think there could be a few suprises and those east of the meridian should see the snow stay as snow. Then heading on into thursday early am and through to sat early am here in Kent we have a cracking shot at some pretty good totals. Usual suspects will do well and I expect N Kent to do rather better than those further west this time round as the wind is looking more of a NE'ly than an E'ly as it was last year, where the Thames streamer set up. I expect the Downs around East Kent to do well ie Dover/Folkstone and then along to Charing, Lenham, Detling and Bluebell Hill. The western Downs will get some but my thoughts are not as much as last year, those further east and north should do better.

If I was to stick my neck out, somewhere around Charing/Detling could hit 15-20cms with low lying areas picking up 5-10cms in favoured spots.

I dont really care what happens after saturday, once the snow is laying and we get some very low minima the cold could well dig in, especially if the rest of the country joins in with lying snow and also the near continent.

Thats my take on it and yes it is Kent biased because I live there!

[Nick.F]

I saw something tonight, hat I have not seen in many, many years; a large snowplough moving to a position, somewhere I guess where it is to be useful over the next few days.

It would seem that maybe, being prepared, is for once the preferred option.

[donna-m]

Steve = Temp here is 1c and Dew point at -2.8

[Met4Cast]

Well here very close to the North Kent coast in Iwade the temp briefly made it to 1c before heading back down around 3.30ish. Had frost all day in the garden which for this part of the world is a rarity in itself.

All eyes on tomorrow PM. With elevation I think there could be a few suprises and those east of the meridian should see the snow stay as snow. Then heading on into thursday early am and through to sat early am here in Kent we have a cracking shot at some pretty good totals. Usual suspects will do well and I expect N Kent to do rather better than those further west this time round as the wind is looking more of a NE'ly than an E'ly as it was last year, where the Thames streamer set up. I expect the Downs around East Kent to do well ie Dover/Folkstone and then along to Charing, Lenham, Detling and Bluebell Hill. The western Downs will get some but my thoughts are not as much as last year, those further east and north should do better.

If I was to stick my neck out, somewhere around Charing/Detling could hit 15-20cms with low lying areas picking up 5-10cms in favoured spots.

I dont really care what happens after saturday, once the snow is laying and we get some very low minima the cold could well dig in, especially if the rest of the country joins in with lying snow and also the near continent.

Thats my take on it and yes it is Kent biased because I live there!

I agree with everything you've just said. It certainly does look like Eastern Kent will get the best out of this, specially with the heaviest of the snow through Thursday, Thursday night and Friday looks likely to be across the East (I'm on the NE Kent Coast, so this is fantastic for me, with low uppers etc.. I don't think the warmer North sea will have any affect other than allowing those showers to develop)

I'm starting to get very excited with the potential now. Bring it on!!!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

What's happened to the EA contingent here? Almost all the posts in the last 3/4 of an hour have been from Kentish posters and my report on the LE forecast has been thanked by two people, both from the SE region! :unsure:

[i luv snow]

I'm here! EA looks like doing just as well as Kent so we should all be really excited... :unsure:

[saint]

What's happened to the EA contingent here? Almost all the posts in the last 3/4 of an hour have been from Kentish posters and my report on the LE forecast has been thanked by two people, both from the SE region! :unsure:

Thanks!

[snowbob]

the weather at 8.oo showed no snow for thurs/fri on bbc news 24 whats going on

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Sorry if I sounded grouchy, but someone did ask me to post it - can't remember who though! BTW, for anyone having a job finding it, it was post #511.

[winterfreak]

Steve, temp here is -1.7°c with a -3.4°c dew point. Both falling in last 15 minutes or so.....

[maidstone weather]

the weather at 8.oo showed no snow for thurs/fri on bbc news 24 whats going on

It's the UKMO's 12z model output now being put across the BBC. Obviously the charts have changed. I wouldn't worry though - it's 2 days away!:unsure:

Edited December 15, 2009 by maidstone weather

[snowbob]

It's the UKMO's 12z model output now being put across the BBC. Obviously the charts have changed. I wouldn't worry though - it's 2 days away!

cheers for that started to panic. considering the 6.30 forecast

[snowking]

It's the UKMO's 12z model output now being put across the BBC. Obviously the charts have changed. I wouldn't worry though - it's 2 days away!:unsure:

I'd have to disagree there, the Met Office have clearly gone more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus as shown by the fax....not that the UKMO in the short term isnt snowy

Its more likely forecaster preferences.....who's forecasting this evening? Id guess either darren 'at least its mild' bett, peter gibbs or jay wynne

SK

[jennyjane]

Hello

I'm on the EA side, and thanks to evryone for their input but I'n rather confused between the charts, what I understand of them myself, what some of you are saying here, and what the tv weather forecasters are saying.

JJ

[danm]

It's the UKMO's 12z model output now being put across the BBC. Obviously the charts have changed. I wouldn't worry though - it's 2 days away!:unsure:

But surely if the charts have changed, they should use the most up to date ones? An hour ago Dan Corbett was showing heavy snow across much of Eastern and Central Englan, and now Alex Deakin is showing virtually nothing.

[snowbob]

I'd have to disagree there, the Met Office have clearly gone more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus as shown by the fax....not that the UKMO in the short term isnt snowy

Its more likely forecaster preferences.....who's forecasting this evening? Id guess either darren 'at least its mild' bett, peter gibbs or jay wynne

SK

yeah darren bett no snow at all in the forecast

[maidstone weather]

I'd have to disagree there, the Met Office have clearly gone more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus as shown by the fax....not that the UKMO in the short term isnt snowy

Its more likely forecaster preferences.....who's forecasting this evening? Id guess either darren 'at least its mild' bett, peter gibbs or jay wynne

SK

Alex Deakin.

It must be based on the UKMO's 0z and 12z output. The charts for day 3 onwards always change in the evening and again in the following morning. Between say now and 9am tomorrow morning they will use the same charts for Thursday and Friday which shows very little snow on it, especially when compared to the ones used during today.

So I would presume when the charts update on the BBC at 20:00GMT every day it's based on the 12z model, and at 08:00GMT it's based on the 0z model?

Edited December 15, 2009 by maidstone weather

[snowking]

Hello

I'm on the EA side, and thanks to evryone for their input but I'n rather confused between the charts, what I understand of them myself, what some of you are saying here, and what the tv weather forecasters are saying.

JJ

Hi JJ,

I think thats very much the order of the day. The charts at this stage start to become fairly useless given their resolution, unless you are lucky enough the have the NMM on the net weather extra subscription (well worth it by the way!). The FAX charts are the other valuable source of information if you understand them, as these are hand-drawn (so to speak, its done on computer obviously!) by Met Office forecasters, rather than being automatically generated by computer models

Thursday and Friday, as with any showery setups, is very much uncertain - however tomorrow we have a band of sleet/snow moving in during the latter part of the morning, turning back to rain in some parts later on

Kind Regards

SK

[snowbob]

Alex Deakin.

It must be based on the UKMO's 0z and 12z output. The charts for day 3 onwards always change in the evening and again in the following morning. Between say now and 9am tomorrow morning they will use the same charts for Thursday and Friday which shows very little snow on it, especially when compared to the ones used during today.

sorry yeah thats who i meant

[VillagePlank]

Using the 850hPa Theta-W charts, the risk of snow starts south and east from a line between Bristol up to Norwich, for tonight. The further south and east you are the better (kent/sussex):

Tomorrow this area of low Theta-W temps departs, and returns early Friday morning where a much bigger area, and substantially lower Theta-W temperature envelopes the whole country (well, nearly, anyway)

Of course, this is one parameter, and one must use thicknesses (1000-500hPa, 1000-850hPa) which favour, strongly, the south and east all week - but still low for much of the country:

DP (must be zero or below):

and air temperature (not nearly as important as a lot of people believe - it's possible, but rare, for snow at 8C)

Happy snow hunting - VP's tip of the day - take Friday off work!

Edited December 15, 2009 by VillagePlank