Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[andymusic]

Anybody from Angelsey?

looks like there might be a snow shower ongoing there right now!

[keithlucky]

Anybody from Angelsey?

looks like there might be a snow shower ongoing there right now!

nope swansea

[Cymro]

I posted this in the other one but this is what my take on things are going to be in the next few days.

Dyma fel dwi'n gweld y tywydd o heddiw hyd ddydd Sul.

This is how I see the weather from today to Sunday.

Heno/Tonight

Noson clir ar y cyfan gyda rhew trwchus dros y wlad i gyd, tymheredd ar ei isaf tua -6 ac yn gyffredinol o gwmpas -4/-5. Wrth i'r noson ymestyn disgwylir cawodydd gaeafol yn ymledu draw o'r gorllewin gyda'r gwynt yn troi'n gogleddol/gogledd orllewinol. Dylai siroedd megis Penfro/Sir Gaeryrddin/Ceredigion, Gwynedd a Môn gweld y cawodydd yma cyn i'r dydd gwario gyda ambell i gawod eira drwm dros Eryri a Phreseli.

A Clear night on the whole with a thick frost all over the country, minimum tempreature around -6 and generally around -4/-5. As the night stretches wintry showers are expected to spread across the west as the wind turns north / north west. Counties such as Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Ceredigion, Gwynedd and Aanglesey are most at risk before day breaks with occasional heavy snow showers over Snowdonia and Preseli.

Dydd Sadwrn/Saturday

Diwrnod cawodlyd iawn yn y gogledd a'r gorllewin gyda ambell i ysbaid heulog. Yn sych ar y cyfan yn y diwrnod gydag ambell gawod eira ysgafn yn y bore yn enwedig dros fannau Brycheiniog. Diwrnod oer gyda'r tymheredd ar ei uchel yn 3 gradd C. Rhew caled i ddechrau'r bore yn y de a'r dwyrain ac yn hwyr yn y prynhawn hefyd. Wrth iddi nosi disgwyli'r i system ymledu lawr o'r gogledd gyda eira trwm mewn mannau o'r gogledd. Wrth i hyn ymledu lawr at y dde mae 'na ychydig o gymhlethod ynglŷn a'r system innau eira/eirlaw neu law. Yn bersonol rwy'n rhagweld eira ym mhob man mewn dir o'r arfordiroedd ond mae'n sefyllfa anodd i'w ddynodi ac felly mae pob man yng Nghymru gyda'r risg o weld rhywfaint o eira gyda'r nos.

Very showery day in the north and west with a few sunny spells. It should be dry on the whole with occasional light snow showers in the morning in the eastern half of Wales, especially over areas of the Brecon Beacons. Cold day with high temperatures no higher than 3 degrees C. Hard Frost early and late in the south and east which might not lift. As night falls a front is expected to spread down from the north with heavy snow in parts of North Wales. As this spread down to the Southern half of Wales it's tricky to determine whether it will all as snow/sleet or Rain. I personally predict snow everywhere in land from the coast but the situation is marginal to call, all areas in Wales in my opinion ar at risk of seeing some snow during the night.

Dydd Sul / Sunday

Llawer o gawodydd eira o gwmpas arfordiroedd y gorllewin a'r gogledd heddiw. Bydd rhai yn ymledu ymhell dros Gymru ar brydiau a gellir ddisgwyl i'r eira orffwys mewn unrhyw le i ffwrdd o'r arfordiroedd. Gall tua 10 centimetr syrthio mewn mannau cyn iddi nosi. Y tymheredd ar ei uchaf tua dwy radd C. Eto bydd y tymheredd yn brwydro i godi yn uwch na'r rhew bwynt mewn dir. Gwyntoedd cymedrol tua'r prynhawn ac yn gryf mewn unrhyw gawodydd o eira.

Plenty of Snow showers around the Western and Northern coasts today. These will feed ar inland across Wales at times and a covering can be expected anywhere away from coastal regions. As much as 10 centimeters couldall in places before night falls. The tempreature at its highest around 2 degreees C. Again the tempreature will be struggling to get much above the freezing point inland. Moderate winds in the afternoon and strong in any snow showers.

[Wynn D Woo]

I posted this in the other one but this is what my take on things are going to be in the next few days.

Dyma fel dwi'n gweld y tywydd o heddiw hyd ddydd Sul.

This is how I see the weather from today to Sunday.

Sounds promising enough, Im in Pontyclun sat through to sunday so hoping to see some snow, a good NNW has delivered a few times in recent winters - fingers crossed.

[keithlucky]

Anybody from Angelsey?

looks like there might be a snow shower ongoing there right now!

looks like a slight change of wind direction a few showers drifting into north wales.

[J10]

I posted this in the other one but this is what my take on things are going to be in the next few days.

Dyma fel dwi'n gweld y tywydd o heddiw hyd ddydd Sul.

This is how I see the weather from today to Sunday.

Heno/Tonight

Noson clir ar y cyfan gyda rhew trwchus dros y wlad i gyd, tymheredd ar ei isaf tua -6 ac yn gyffredinol o gwmpas -4/-5. Wrth i'r noson ymestyn disgwylir cawodydd gaeafol yn ymledu draw o'r gorllewin gyda'r gwynt yn troi'n gogleddol/gogledd orllewinol. Dylai siroedd megis Penfro/Sir Gaeryrddin/Ceredigion, Gwynedd a Môn gweld y cawodydd yma cyn i'r dydd gwario gyda ambell i gawod eira drwm dros Eryri a Phreseli.

A Clear night on the whole with a thick frost all over the country, minimum tempreature around -6 and generally around -4/-5. As the night stretches wintry showers are expected to spread across the west as the wind turns north / north west. Counties such as Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Ceredigion, Gwynedd and Aanglesey are most at risk before day breaks with occasional heavy snow showers over Snowdonia and Preseli.

Dydd Sadwrn/Saturday

Diwrnod cawodlyd iawn yn y gogledd a'r gorllewin gyda ambell i ysbaid heulog. Yn sych ar y cyfan yn y diwrnod gydag ambell gawod eira ysgafn yn y bore yn enwedig dros fannau Brycheiniog. Diwrnod oer gyda'r tymheredd ar ei uchel yn 3 gradd C. Rhew caled i ddechrau'r bore yn y de a'r dwyrain ac yn hwyr yn y prynhawn hefyd. Wrth iddi nosi disgwyli'r i system ymledu lawr o'r gogledd gyda eira trwm mewn mannau o'r gogledd. Wrth i hyn ymledu lawr at y dde mae 'na ychydig o gymhlethod ynglŷn a'r system innau eira/eirlaw neu law. Yn bersonol rwy'n rhagweld eira ym mhob man mewn dir o'r arfordiroedd ond mae'n sefyllfa anodd i'w ddynodi ac felly mae pob man yng Nghymru gyda'r risg o weld rhywfaint o eira gyda'r nos.

Very showery day in the north and west with a few sunny spells. It should be dry on the whole with occasional light snow showers in the morning in the eastern half of Wales, especially over areas of the Brecon Beacons. Cold day with high temperatures no higher than 3 degrees C. Hard Frost early and late in the south and east which might not lift. As night falls a front is expected to spread down from the north with heavy snow in parts of North Wales. As this spread down to the Southern half of Wales it's tricky to determine whether it will all as snow/sleet or Rain. I personally predict snow everywhere in land from the coast but the situation is marginal to call, all areas in Wales in my opinion ar at risk of seeing some snow during the night.

Dydd Sul / Sunday

Llawer o gawodydd eira o gwmpas arfordiroedd y gorllewin a'r gogledd heddiw. Bydd rhai yn ymledu ymhell dros Gymru ar brydiau a gellir ddisgwyl i'r eira orffwys mewn unrhyw le i ffwrdd o'r arfordiroedd. Gall tua 10 centimetr syrthio mewn mannau cyn iddi nosi. Y tymheredd ar ei uchaf tua dwy radd C. Eto bydd y tymheredd yn brwydro i godi yn uwch na'r rhew bwynt mewn dir. Gwyntoedd cymedrol tua'r prynhawn ac yn gryf mewn unrhyw gawodydd o eira.

Plenty of Snow showers around the Western and Northern coasts today. These will feed ar inland across Wales at times and a covering can be expected anywhere away from coastal regions. As much as 10 centimeters couldall in places before night falls. The tempreature at its highest around 2 degreees C. Again the tempreature will be struggling to get much above the freezing point inland. Moderate winds in the afternoon and strong in any snow showers.

To be honest I tend to agree with most of that, certainty see snow showers tending to develop more widely late morning as the wind veers more NW, however this may be to late for accumulation (whihc is a partial downgrade from my initial thoughts).

This wintry band edging south is now well documented, the timing is this during the night helps, and hilly areas to the east may well see this all of snow, with snow on the back edge everywhere. Snow showers are then possible quite widely for Sunday morning and through Sunday.

I am still surprised at the lack of severe weather watches for western Wales for Sunday for snow, saying that perhaps this makes snow more likely.

I can fully understand peoples frustration about this cold spell, however the weekend was always the focus, and I would think that all locations in Wales should see some snow before the weekend is out, however lying snow is a different story, but this is possible from different sources just about anywhere.

The GFS is a big upgrade for cold lasting until Christmas Day, with the UKMO is also good, The ECM is good up until the 24th but turning milder on Christmas Day, generally good models today.

[J10]

BBC Wales snow for some over weekend, but not much for Newport, Cardiff and Swansea, but a pasting for the north despite the Graphics showing snow for a time at least in all places from the frontal band coming down.and heavy snow over Swansea on Sunday.

I remember similar forecast a number of years ago showing no more than a dusting of snow for us, and we had over 4 inches.

[TonyH]

Well Derek was n't inspiring unless you live on a hill! Maxes this weekend 4-6c much of west Wales, and looks like rain for much of the lower ground and south and west Wales Saturday night. Not many showers during the day times either. If that forecast is right then this 'very' cold spell will not have been very impressive at all.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Tonyh

[swales]

BBC Wales snow for some over weekend, but not much for Newport, Cardiff and Swansea, but a pasting for the north despite the Graphics showing snow for a time at least in all places from the frontal band coming down.and heavy snow over Swansea on Sunday.

I remember similar forecast a number of years ago showing no more than a dusting of snow for us, and we had over 4 inches.

Dereck's day time temps seemed a tad high for my liking

Predicting 7 degrees in parts of West Wales

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

BBC Wales forecast wasnt to bad saying very little snow for Cardiff, Newport and Swansea, but for locations further North looked like a good period of snow.

Dewpoints are going to be a little to high at first in the South but i would certainly say snow on the backedge of that front which would accumulate on the hills.

[keithlucky]

Dereck's day time temps seemed a tad high for my liking

Predicting 7 degrees in parts of West Wales

Derek who wonder if hes qualified 7c bla

[Snowmadsam]

Is this looking good for heavy snow on radar?

Milford having snow now!!

Feel free to remove radar image mod's

[Barb]

My thoughts on tomorrow night's snow:

Even the rain/sleet areas might get back edge snow though.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Barb

[Cymro]

My thoughts on tomorrow night's snow:

Even the rain/sleet areas might get back edge snow though.

That's a fair illistrated map there maybe the southern coast oF Wales will initially fall as sleet/

[J10]

Well Derek was n't inspiring unless you live on a hill! Maxes this weekend 4-6c much of west Wales, and looks like rain for much of the lower ground and south and west Wales Saturday night. Not many showers during the day times either. If that forecast is right then this 'very' cold spell will not have been very impressive at all.

Did show snow over Swansea for Sunday though.

[risk of sleet]

Is this looking good for heavy snow on radar?

Milford having snow now!!

Might be the Pembrookeshire Danglers Wikipedia

[swales]

Good map back there. I think intially most of the southern coast will have dew's above freezing, so rain possibly but quickly turning to snow the further east.

[Snowmadsam]

Lets hope it gives us lots then

So much coming up on the radar!!!

Now going to do some snow dancing outside

lol

[J10]

Good map back there. I think intially most of the southern coast will have dew's above freezing, so rain possibly but quickly turning to snow the further east.

Dew points From NMM available on NW Extra, which is brilliant and everyone should get it.

The over estimation due to seas still applies on this but it is less noticeable due to teh higher detail than the GFS.

[A Gower Guy]

Did show snow over Swansea for Sunday though.

no chance now then lol, but seriously I do think the forecasts are underplaying the snow risk, but if it does rain the clearing skies will make the roads very dangorous.

[swales]

I would have subscribed to Extra JACKONE but I missed the winter offer... I should take notice of things more

[J10]

no chance now then lol, but seriously I do think the forecasts are underplaying the snow risk, but if it does rain the clearing skies will make the roads very dangorous.

:lol:

The ground up here is rock solid and the if there is rain/sleet tomorrow night, then it may well be freezing which we really don't want.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/temperatures-sol/6h.htm This gives the temps tomorrow night according to UKMO model

[Snowmadsam]

Yes same here I have got a servere frost this should help the pembrokshire dangler snow come

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

With them Dew points being just above freezing around 1-2 for S.Wales, then falling away as the front clears through i would expect to see a covering of snow on hills above 200m.