Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[garibaldi]

Must congratulate you boys (and girls) on your knowledge , have only just found this forum but its been very interesting reading the different reports.

The Mrs left Ipswich yesterday ay 18:30 and only just made it down the A14 , Cambridge was a whiteout at one point. She saw the usual idiots who obviously thought they had World Rally Cars with spiked tyres , with two facing the wrong way at one point.

Just picked my lad from school trip at 23:20 with temps at -5C in Llanfylin , Powys.

Keep up the good work.

[J10]

Braf gweld Liam, Ydy'n gorffwys ym mhobman neu ond ar ochrau'r heolydd?

Nice to see Liam, Isit settling everywhere or just on the side of the roads?

I imagine the roads are gritted.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just watched BBC News 24 forecast, said rain showers affecting NW wales...Umm..That webcam doesn't look like rain to me..BBC wrong again.

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like this greenland high has made the 1060mbs afterall and a very dry north wind for here

today not as I expecting any showers.

This is the most impressive december GH since 1981.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn061.png

There are others december 2000 and dec 1995 which gave a good deal of snow here.

[swales]

Can I just ask one question....

BBC Forecasters...

They are meant to be professional forecasters right? Why are they getting simple things wrong? Can't they see other possible scenarios to weather systems which may have a alternative outcome? Why don't they look at the big picture?

Just by reading these forums, half the members can forecast better than some BBC forecasters?

I may sound over the top, but there are some people on here who may not be considered professional that could do a much better job then some of the forecaster we have in the UK.

Some of the presented forecasts I've seen today with the BBC have been shockingly bad.

[Barb]

Can I just ask one question....

BBC Forecasters...

They are meant to be professional forecasters right? Why are they getting simple things wrong? Can't they see other possible scenarios to weather systems which may have a alternative outcome? Why don't they look at the big picture?

Just by reading these forums, half the members can forecast better than some BBC forecasters?

I may sound over the top, but there are some people on here who may not be considered professional that could do a much better job then some of the forecaster we have in the UK.

Some of the presented forecasts I've seen today with the BBC have been shockingly bad.

The thing is a lot of them aren't forecasters anymore - just presenters who are there to look pretty. The days of Michael Fish and Bill Giles and John Ketley - proper meteorologists - are almost gone. They also seem to take a very narrow view of everything - they pick one possibility and are closed to anything else. Sometimes the weather is unpredictable but something they forget I think.

[madian2]

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn061.png

sorry to sound a bit thick but could some kind person tell me the colour chart and wot it means

again sorry to sound thick only learning

madian2

[Barb]

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn061.png

sorry to sound a bit thick but could some kind person tell me the colour chart and wot it means

again sorry to sound thick only learning

madian2

The colours are temperature very high up in the atmosphere. Are a good indicator of what kind of airmass it is, colder colours mean colder airmass.

[pyrotech]

Looks like this greenland high has made the 1060mbs afterall and a very dry north wind for here

today not as I expecting any showers.

This is the most impressive december GH since 1981.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn061.png

There are others december 2000 and dec 1995 which gave a good deal of snow here.

yes that GH has reached a dizzy height and sets winter up nicely for Western Europe. We need to catch up a little with the Southeast this weekend now, but evn if we had 10ft we would never get the media attention they do.

Very positive signals regarding the Stratosphere so the outlook is also cold from that point too so hopefully my forecast of an 80s winter will be true.

An 80s style winter was forcast here in september with more cold winters to come, about the same time metoffice forecast a mild winter.

bbq summer , mild winter just hope thy forecast a cold wet summer for next year - we will have a heatwave then

[madian2]

The colours are temperature very high up in the atmosphere. Are a good indicator of what kind of airmass it is, colder colours mean colder airmass.

so lower done the chart colder it is

thanks for the info

madian2

[Barb]

so lower done the chart colder it is

thanks for the info

madian2

Yep, not on the ground but high up in the atmosphere, sometimes it can be cold on the ground but warm high up and vice versa. Generally though the more blues and other colder colours the colder it'll be on the surface too...

[Jamie.]

Just watched BBC News 24 forecast, said rain showers affecting NW wales...Umm..That webcam doesn't look like rain to me..BBC wrong again.

Oh I know, and earlier forecast saying about rain showers... bah, and forecasting it with -2C temps.

Edited December 19, 2009 by Jamie.ed

[J10]

Clearly all BBC forecasters have better technical knowledge than all of us on here. However we do have the advantage of local knowledge which is helpful in these situations as we know that a particular wind direction means for our location.

The lack of coverage given to Wales in recent forecasts has been bad, however they are clearly not certain on tomorrow's front so are playing it down.

But at the moment, I am a little disappointed with Derek's forecast today, for the rushed nature of it, but this is not helped by the snow drawings they do at this time of year, which severely cuts into the forecast time available.

The thing is a lot of them aren't forecasters anymore - just presenters who are there to look pretty. The days of Michael Fish and Bill Giles and John Ketley - proper meteorologists - are almost gone. They also seem to take a very narrow view of everything - they pick one possibility and are closed to anything else. Sometimes the weather is unpredictable but something they forget I think.

All/most of the weather staff at the BBC are trained meteorologists, and their profiles can be found on the BBC weather pages online.

[Cymro]

Yes I think the forecasters are good forecasters but they've got to stick to guidlines and also are given a short timespace and can't go into detail wheras we can. Jackone whats your take ont he showers out towards cardigan bay moving south east do you think they will make landfall and come this way?

[J10]

so lower done the chart colder it is

thanks for the info

madian2

There is a learners area on the Net Weather site which helps with all the basics

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/69-learners-area/

However don't be afraid to answer any questions.

[swales]

Clearly all BBC forecasters have better technical knowledge than all of us on here. However we do have the advantage of local knowledge which is helpful in these situations as we know that a particular wind direction means for our location.

The lack of coverage given to Wales in recent forecasts has been bad, however they are clearly not certain on tomorrow's front so are playing it down.

But at the moment, I am a little disappointed with Derek's forecast today, for the rushed nature of it, but this is not helped by the snow drawings they do at this time of year, which severely cuts into the forecast time available.

All/most of the weather staff at the BBC are trained meteorologists, and their profiles can be found on the BBC weather pages online.

Fair enough.

In my opinion I if I was working for the BBC I would rather 'play it up' than down just to be on the safe side and not a repeat of previous mistakes over the years.

Edited December 19, 2009 by shaunwales

[pyrotech]

The thing is a lot of them aren't forecasters anymore - just presenters who are there to look pretty. The days of Michael Fish and Bill Giles and John Ketley - proper meteorologists - are almost gone. They also seem to take a very narrow view of everything - they pick one possibility and are closed to anything else. Sometimes the weather is unpredictable but something they forget I think.

In fairness they are not allowed to deviate much from what the senior forcaster desides is most likely outcome based on the meto and taking account of GFS and ECM.

often we will pick a chart because 1. it looks right 2. its what we want to see. Often in these set ups people go for the cold charts and often it disapears in fi.

This year these conditions were forcast deep in FI and have come to fruitition, It started with Omega block over USA which allowed cold air to sweep down Europe.

Another help has been the Green land high which has a very high pressure. This all sends the 200mb jet stream well to the South, slowing the Atlantic systems from hitting the UK. Opposite to what happened in November. Stratosphere warming can also send pools of cold air accross Europe and SSW event is likely over the next fortnight with another cold spell following if it occurs.

regarding the bbc forecasters their is alot to get right on marginal events like Sunday nights. 528DAM, 850s, surface temps, sea surface temps, Dew points and exact location of the low pressure. They will know what is possible as we do, but forecast as they see it at the time. I personally see an "upgrade" as most likely for Eastern Wales as JACKONE said earlier. situations like this can become very dificult to forecast, Nxt week is absolute nightmare with anything from cold and clear, blizzards to mild and wet possible. At the moment they go for cool and damp towards middle of the week. Thats just about average of the 3 scenarios possible.

hope you all get some snow, if not there should be some within travelling distance ie Brecon Beacons for sledging.

[J10]

Yes I think the forecasters are good forecasters but they've got to stick to guidlines and also are given a short timespace and can't go into detail wheras we can. Jackone whats your take ont he showers out towards cardigan bay moving south east do you think they will make landfall and come this way?

Not tonight unfortunately the wind direction is NNE and these will keep blowing away to the west. Perhaps by around 4-5am the showrs may start making more of a westerly flow.

Tomorrow night the wind turns to a NNW and with lower pressire and more unstable air, there is far more convective potential.

[risk of sleet]

Earlier, whilst Netweather was transferring its core servers from Sheffield to somewhere in China, I was looking at the GFS 18Z and I got some Deja vu. I remember myself at some time in the past being convinced that the air (which was aloft at the time) coming from the West would give us snow. More experienced netweather people told me it would be modified (made warmer) by the Atlantic/Irish sea and would fall as rain. I found this very unlikely and told everyone I know to 'Take Action', because of the heavy snowfall that was coming our way.

Duuuurrrrr:oops: To cut a long story short, it really does look a bit wet for Saturday, unless you are very elevated or away from the sea?

[KTtom]

Woken up to a light covering and its still snowing. The latest forecasts actually look more promising for the far west for snow showers Sunday/Monday. Sat night looking wrong side of marginal in the west though.

[bluetoff]

Covering here on the coast. Main roads clear as gritters were out last night, just the side roads a bit tricky.

Pic taken at 6am and more forecast.

[Snowmadsam]

I live n south western wales we have got a deep covering and it is great but my question is if this artic front is expected tonight may it turn to snow where I am?

Sam

[welshawb123]

Nice to hear a few places have some snow already. I am hoping Bridgend will recieve some snow this weekend. Looking at the forecasts I am sceptical, but be nice to see.

[Snowmadsam]

We live in hope I think all eyes on radar

lol

Hopefully will get some fingers crossed

now turning into blizzards here

[DeepSnow]

Nice to hear a few places have some snow already. I am hoping Bridgend will recieve some snow this weekend. Looking at the forecasts I am sceptical, but be nice to see.

Me to, fingers crossed!! I think we will do though