North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Warning from the Met Office for widespread ice...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/ne_forecast_warnings.html

Got a fresh dusting on everything after the latest snow shower, just snowing lightly now.

[Geordiesnow]

Interesting how the differences between the GFS and UKMO would affect our weather. After maybe a day of sunshine and wintry showers, the former would bring alot of dull, wet(with snow on higher ground) and miserable weather only for things to turn more showery at the end of the week, whilst the latter would bring continuous sunshine and snow showers(away from the coast where they probably be of rain) for a good old while i would of thought.

I know which one i would choose.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

maybe the past week or so is just a small taster of whats in store for us next weekend, snow ploughs at the ready!!!

[Snowstorm1]

Temp now 2.7C and dewpoint 1C at 5:10 they just flew up

temp now 2.3C and dewpoint 0.5C at 5:20 the going down oh my head hurts lmao!

[recklessabandon]

around 1-2cm of fresh snow, albeit wet, in Consett. All roads etc completely covered again. A drop of 50m however resulted in rain. very marginal, and a very abrupt freezing level.

should be some good fresh powder over the hills now.

[Snowstorm1]

I have a very very good feeling this thread will become much more active as this coming week wears on

[Andy_]

bit of a dissapointment last few days precipitation wise, rain/sleet showers not adding anything to the remaining 'snow cover' but only turning it into a leethal ice rink. getting a bitttt sick of the ice now like either a warm up or more snow is needed to return the pavements and roads to safety

wednesday about 50/50 chance i'd say for snow - more likely at night obviously,

thursday should be snowy

and friday should be snowy too!

then anything except RAIN or SLEET after that please?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

18z GFS run is marginal for snow in low lying areas until the end of the week.

However it does give high ground in our region a chance of massive amounts of snow before then, with an area of heavy ppn over us for around 24hrs!

This is the result on the experimental snow depth charts...

It looks tricky to forecast this week, but I would say by this time next week all of us should have had snow, some of us maybe a lot!

EDIT: Snowstorm1 and others down in Teesside could get a couple of snow showers soon.

[Snowstorm1]

18z GFS run is marginal for snow in low lying areas until the end of the week.

However it does give high ground in our region a chance of massive amounts of snow before then, with an area of heavy ppn over us for around 24hrs!

This is the result on the experimental snow depth charts...

It looks tricky to forecast this week, but I would say by this time next week all of us should have had snow, some of us maybe a lot!

EDIT: Snowstorm1 and others down in Teesside could get a couple of snow showers soon.

Really :lol:

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Really :lol:

Just a few showers moving down the North Sea...

They are moving directly north to south.

[Rollo]

Clear morning save for some distant CuNims moving down the coast,currently -4c here.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

06z GFS is excellent for us, with plenty of heavy showers towards the end of the week and over the weekend. Only concern would be the LP getting too close to us and mixing in some milder air with the cold.

Before that, the ppn from the south still looks uncertain whether it will reach us. If it does it looks like rain, sleet maybe wet snow for low ground, with high ground getting a massive dumping. I'd never seen a snow depth chart like the one I posted yesterday, but on this run it gets even better...

I know it's experimental and not the most accurate but it just shows what could happen IF we get all the ppn on the 06z run and IF it falls as snow.

Looks like an interesting week ahead

[Rollo]

06z GFS is excellent for us, with plenty of heavy showers towards the end of the week and over the weekend. Only concern would be the LP getting too close to us and mixing in some milder air with the cold.

Before that, the ppn from the south still looks uncertain whether it will reach us. If it does it looks like rain, sleet maybe wet snow for low ground, with high ground getting a massive dumping. I'd never seen a snow depth chart like the one I posted yesterday, but on this run it gets even better...

I know it's experimental and not the most accurate but it just shows what could happen IF we get all the ppn on the 06z run and IF it falls as snow.

Looks like an interesting week ahead

Morning MCT, I hate to think how bad it could become up your way,have you far to go to work? We will obviously not suffer as badly as you but if all the promise comes to fruition I would worry about folk older than I am surviving in conditions not experienced for nearly two decades. I for one will enjoy it if and when it arrives.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Morning MCT, I hate to think how bad it could become up your way,have you far to go to work? We will obviously not suffer as badly as you but if all the promise comes to fruition I would worry about folk older than I am surviving in conditions not experienced for nearly two decades. I for one will enjoy it if and when it arrives.

Morning Rollo, I'm off until next Monday thankfully, I work in Consett so that would have been interesting!

Even if I'm too low here I'll probably get up on the moors later in the week to check out the depths. Could be around what Aberfeldy had yesterday I would imagine. Looks like a similar situation with the band of ppn moving slowly north and stopping somewhere around our area.

[peterf]

Morning Rollo, I'm off until next Monday thankfully, I work in Consett so that would have been interesting!

Even if I'm too low here I'll probably get up on the moors later in the week to check out the depths. Could be around what Aberfeldy had yesterday I would imagine. Looks like a similar situation with the band of ppn moving slowly north and stopping somewhere around our area.

it's certainly looking good at present Mark.might see if i can get snowed in up at the Moorcock lol.

[izi]

hi folks.

to my novice eyes, the gfs is saying that we are going to get a battering from the low in 36 hours. Of course, every other model says the opposite with regards to the position of the low..

Is that correct?

[peterf]

hi folks.

to my novice eyes, the gfs is saying that we are going to get a battering from the low in 36 hours. Of course, every other model says the opposite with regards to the position of the low..

Is that correct?

who can say lol,it'll be radar watching again.

[Snowstorm1]

The good thing is if it hits us it be of snow and we could see some huge totals but i want it to track more to south so that allows the ne to develop and bring stacks of heavy snow showers off the north sea

[peterf]

we've still got a good covering here, but a nice top up wont be refused lol

[Geordiesnow]

The good thing is if it hits us it be of snow and we could see some huge totals but i want it to track more to south so that allows the ne to develop and bring stacks of heavy snow showers off the north sea

It's hard too tell what that PPN would fall as up here, i know we would be in the -5 or slightly below air but we have reports of freezing rain coming from frontal stuff earlier in the week despite temps and dewpoints favoured snow.

Personally, i'll sacrafice the potential of a longer outbreak of snow for convective stuff which is alot more interesting and as the air would be that bit colder, more chance of being on the right side of marginal.

Whatever happens, the Pennines are going to get a good old dollop of snow i would of thought.

[Rollo]

If the Pennines don't get it GS then no one will,I would have thought that we will be too far north for the frontal snow but the convective showers should eventually provide all areas even to the coast with) enough snow to satisfy all(Famous last words perhaps).

Edited December 28, 2009 by Rollo

[Mark Bayley]

It's hard too tell what that PPN would fall as up here, i know we would be in the -5 or slightly below air but we have reports of freezing rain coming from frontal stuff earlier in the week despite temps and dewpoints favoured snow.

Personally, i'll sacrafice the potential of a longer outbreak of snow for convective stuff which is alot more interesting and as the air would be that bit colder, more chance of being on the right side of marginal.

Whatever happens, the Pennines are going to get a good old dollop of snow i would of thought.

I suspect Buxton would be a good place to be! Looking at the models and the UKMO and GFS don't look to bad for you up North. The ECM on the other hand is much better for my prospects. I still think the models are going to trend towards what the ECM is suggesting. Will have to wait and see, longer term prospects certainly look good though!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The good thing is if it hits us it be of snow and we could see some huge totals but i want it to track more to south so that allows the ne to develop and bring stacks of heavy snow showers off the north sea

Yes, I feel the same. Temperatures within the frontal band will be far more marginal than in the bright showery regime to the north of it (particularly regarding the dewpoints) and correspondingly, I would expect an unpleasant episode of driving sleet at low levels, and probably mostly rain near the east coast.

And of course as a fan of convective weather in general I'm bound to be biased that way anyway- nothing excites me more at this time of year than those sunshine and snow shower setups with big Cb cells.

ECMWF suggests that the front will mostly stay away to the south but GFS and to a lesser extent UKMO would probably give us the driving persistent sleet for Wednesday.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I was going to post somethign really interesting, but I've just remembered I need to order some tickets for Blackpool v Ipswich in the FA Cup, so it'll have to keep.

[Snowstorm1]

Yes, I feel the same. Temperatures within the frontal band will be far more marginal than in the bright showery regime to the north of it (particularly regarding the dewpoints) and correspondingly, I would expect an unpleasant episode of driving sleet at low levels, and probably mostly rain near the east coast.

And of course as a fan of convective weather in general I'm bound to be biased that way anyway- nothing excites me more at this time of year than those sunshine and snow shower setups with big Cb cells.

ECMWF suggests that the front will mostly stay away to the south but GFS and to a lesser extent UKMO would probably give us the driving persistent sleet for Wednesday.

Sleet? Wouldnt it be snow in most areas 5miles or more away from the coast? and i think many people on this thread would be appreaciate a quick sum up of this weeks weather As i think your forcast are more accurate than the met and bbc and way more than itv.