North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thanks for the compliment! Going by the GFS 06Z, if that front gets this far north on Wednesday, lowland temperatures under that band will be 1 or 2C inland and 2 or 3C near the east coast, with dewpoints just above freezing. I think inland parts with a bit of altitude would get a fair dumping of snow from that (most likely the compact wet stuff) but at low lying areas I would expect a lot of wet sleety stuff given those temperature profiles. Within 5 miles of the coast, probably sleety rain.

But if that front stays south, and we get wintry showers to the north of it, as ECMWF suggests and some earlier GFS runs have also suggested, we'd be looking at similar maximum temperatures but these would be reached in bright intervals in between showers, and dewpoints would be a degree or two lower. Thus I would expect snow showers to be pretty widespread, and these would be likely to settle quite readily overnight away from the coastal strip.

The main issue with this frontal band is that it introduces modified air across from the east that mixes with the current polar air.

[Snowstorm1]

Thanks for the compliment! Going by the GFS 06Z, if that front gets this far north on Wednesday, lowland temperatures under that band will be 1 or 2C inland and 2 or 3C near the east coast, with dewpoints just above freezing. I think inland parts with a bit of altitude would get a fair dumping of snow from that (most likely the compact wet stuff) but at low lying areas I would expect a lot of wet sleety stuff given those temperature profiles. Within 5 miles of the coast, probably sleety rain.

But if that front stays south, and we get wintry showers to the north of it, as ECMWF suggests and some earlier GFS runs have also suggested, we'd be looking at similar maximum temperatures but these would be reached in bright intervals in between showers, and dewpoints would be a degree or two lower. Thus I would expect snow showers to be pretty widespread, and these would be likely to settle quite readily overnight away from the coastal strip.

The main issue with this frontal band is that it introduces modified air across from the east that mixes with the current polar air.

Which One do you think is most likeliest to occur? Personally Im backing ECM and im 8miles from the coast so i think i could get snow with temps at 1/2c ?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's difficult to say- though I rather think GFS is "going off on one" at the moment with its deepening up of the low. Probably something in between, but closer to ECM than GFS, may be most likely.

In that case we can expect another bright day tomorrow but with cloud increasing from the south and a few sleety flurries near the east coast, a cloudy day on Wednesday with light snowfalls inland but limited accumulations and sleet near the coast, and then sunshine and snow showers arriving for Thursday and Friday providing more significant accumulations, potentially accumulating right out to the coast by Friday.

[Snowstorm1]

It's difficult to say- though I rather think GFS is "going off on one" at the moment with its deepening up of the low. Probably something in between, but closer to ECM than GFS, may be most likely.

In that case we can expect another bright day tomorrow but with cloud increasing from the south and a few sleet/snow flurries near the east coast, a cloudy day on Wednesday with light snowfalls inland but limited accumulations and sleet near the coast, and then sunshine and snow showers arriving for Thursday and Friday providing more significant accumulations, potentially accumulating right out to the coast by Friday.

Oh good so I can expect some snow flurries tommorrow afternoon and overnight and wednesday a band of light snow then on wed night and thurs and fri heavy snow showers moving in off the North Sea?

So depths as follows...

Tuesday Afternoon = Dusting - 1cm

Wednesday 0900 = 2-5cm

Thursday 0900 = 5-10cm

Friday 0900 = 8-15cm

[Thundery wintry showers]

Those figures would be typical for upland parts but I think near sea level you'd be looking at something more like this:

Tuesday- a few sleety showers, depth 0cm

Wednesday- more sleety precipitation, depth 0cm

Thursday- sunshine and snow showers, no more than a dusting at 0900, but accumulations by evening

Friday- a white New Year, snow showers, probably about 5cm at 0900

If the ECMWF is to be believed, then 8-15cm by the end of the weekend would be a realistic call, but given the tremendous uncertainty before then, I can't make any promises. The key points are that I don't think you will have any significant fresh snow on the ground until Thursday, but it is odds-on to happen by Friday.

[Snowstorm1]

Those figures would be typical for upland parts but I think near sea level you'd be looking at something more like this:

Tuesday- a few sleety showers, depth 0cm

Wednesday- more sleety precipitation, depth 0cm

Thursday- sunshine and snow showers, no more than a dusting at 0900, but accumulations by evening

Friday- a white New Year, snow showers, probably about 5cm at 0900

If the ECMWF is to be believed, then 8-15cm by the end of the weekend would be a realistic call, but given the tremendous uncertainty before then, I can't make any promises. The key points are that I don't think you will have any significant fresh snow on the ground until Thursday, but it is odds-on to happen by Friday.

Dam i wanted some before then i thought wednesday would have given me some fresh snow

[mcyates]

Dam i wanted some before then i thought wednesday would have given me some fresh snow

I'm expecting nothing this week!!

Read the news on the bbc and the weather reporter was quoted as saying Northern England and Scotland would be very cold and dry!!

Where is this snow going to come from when the front is down south!!!!!!!

I'm very sceptical

[izi]

I'm expecting nothing this week!!

Read the news on the bbc and the weather reporter was quoted as saying Northern England and Scotland would be very cold and dry!!

Where is this snow going to come from when the front is down south!!!!!!!

I'm very sceptical

easterly showers....

[mcyates]

easterly showers....

I hope so

Down Portmsouth at the moment, never snows here. But tonight i'm travelling home at about 9pm for 5 days off work .

[Snowstorm1]

I hope so

Down Portmsouth at the moment, never snows here. But tonight i'm travelling home at about 9pm for 5 days off work .

Mate its going to be heavy snow showers coming in off the north sea We could be in for a good old dumping!

[Rollo]

Read what TWS says about convective snow showers because that is what we should recieve by New Years Eve if not before.

[Snowstorm1]

Read what TWS says about convective snow showers because that is what we should recieve by New Years Eve if not before.

I have mate unless your talking to the other person

[Rollo]

I have mate unless your talking to the other person

Sorry about that I thought I had typed in mycates name-some typist I am.

[Snowstorm1]

Sorry about that I thought I had typed in mycates name-some typist I am.

Its okay mate

[topsweep1506]

Its freezing cold out and start work at 6, Temp now (1645) -2.8c dew -4.3c

TONY

[Geordiesnow]

According too BBC forecasts, we might get our first wintry flavour of the upcoming easterly by tomorrow, GFS charts do suggest some convective showers albeit probably not amounting too much but with cold air in places, who knows.

I'm glad too see the GFS backing down, still would like that low further south mind, don't want that front anywhere near us otherwise it could potentially kill the shower clouds because of the frontal cloud.

Edited December 28, 2009 by Geordiesnow

[Thundery wintry showers]

Tonight may well see a whopping temperature rise near the east coast when that easterly picks up- it's already -1.6C in Cleadon now, and is probably going to plummet as low as -3 or -4C. Tomorrow morning I'm expecting some sleet, hail and graupel showers to be firing in off the North Sea with temperatures of 3-4C in the brighter intervals falling to 2C in showers, so we could see a sharp rise of several degrees in the intervening period.

Temperatures should then fall slowly away as we head towards the end of the week. It would be good to see a cold airmass and NE wind overcoming the warming effects of the North Sea and giving accumulations of snow out to the coast like on the 17th/18th December- that traditionally doesn't happen often at this time of year, but the model outputs are suggesting it to happen by Friday.

[peterf]

anyone seen a gritter tonight?.-3 and not a one in sight.

[recklessabandon]

anyone seen a gritter tonight?.-3 and not a one in sight.

yeah but thats north-west Durham for you, abandoned every time. driving back from Teesdale earlier temps dropped to -6C already on the car in the hollows and valleys, roads covered in ice, no gritter or ploughs anywhere

[peterf]

my mate works for Derwentside on the gritters.he reckons since we got merged with Durham county,there's 2 gaffers for every job.

nobody communicates with each other.

[paul tall]

Too many chiefs and not enough indians.

[peterf]

Too many chiefs and not enough indians.

aye Paul its the same old problem.

[izi]

its cold out tonight, -3.6oC here, whats everyone else reading?

I decided to deice the freezer today, put the food outside so it wont defrost

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Not liking the latest GFS run, the front doesn't quite reach here so no big dump for higher ground. After that the NE winds are weaker and there's not too much ppn.

I know ppn isn't forecast too well on those GFS charts, so even with this run, we'd still have some snow showers I would expect.

[izi]

Not liking the latest GFS run, the front doesn't quite reach here so no big dump for higher ground. After that the NE winds are weaker and there's not too much ppn.

I know ppn isn't forecast too well on those GFS charts, so even with this run, we'd still have some snow showers I would expect.

we've never really been favoured for anything significant though, have we?