North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

we've never really been favoured for anything significant though, have we?

There was a chance of some big accumulations, mainly over higher ground, from the front moving north and stalling over us.

Some runs have shown a lot of showers pushing into our area through the rest of the week which could give a few inches for some.

Hopefully still plenty of heavy showers to come later in the week, but it looks unlikely that we'll see much from the front.

Don't take too much notice of me though, i'm just an amateur, TWS is the man to listen to.

[izi]

There was a chance of some big accumulations, mainly over higher ground, from the front moving north and stalling over us.

Some runs have shown a lot of showers pushing into our area through the rest of the week which could give a few inches for some.

Hopefully still plenty of heavy showers to come later in the week, but it looks unlikely that we'll see much from the front.

Don't take too much notice of me though, i'm just an amateur, TWS is the man to listen to.

ah, yeah i see what you are getting at. being a complete novice, i dont know much, but my feeling has always been that the GFS had favoured the low progress further north with all other models keeping it south.

I do think we will get several snow showers, lets keep out fingers crossed they are heavy and frequent

Edited December 28, 2009 by izi

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst i can understand MCT disappointment, the front was always a risk as it came with milder air so it would of certainly turned to rain at lower levels whilst higher ground it could still well be snow. At least with the convective showers, it's less marginal and whilst higher ground probably won't receive as much snow as they would do with the weather front, they should still receive enough snow too satisfy those snow fans.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My perspective on how good or bad a run is will always be coloured by my location and my love of convective weather of any description. Therefore I consider the 18Z to be a fantastic run as it keeps that frontal band away (the band that might give MCT a dumping, but would almost certainly give Cleadon a driech day with persistent sleety rain) and instead promises five days of sunshine and wintry showers, with significant snowfalls likely near the east coast from Thursday onwards. The GFS 18Z essentially shows a similar setup to the one that affected the region on 17/18 December, but with the ENE'ly outbreak lasting about three times as long- and remember that the GFS underestimated shower activity somewhat on that occasion.

However there is some IMBY stuff in there, as I can see that for inland areas, especially on high ground, it's a bit of a downgrade of snow potential because the frontal band would reliably bring a dumping to high ground whereas showers are always hit and miss, and unreliable in terms of how far inland they get. But since the similar, but much shorter lived, outbreak on 17/18 December gave a snow cover to the vast majority of north-east England I don't think the 18Z is much of a downgrade even for those parts.

Edited December 28, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[Cloud 10]

Already some showers lurking in the north sea ready to pounce once the wind gets into the east.

Its looking like a very good setup for convection off the north sea once any frontal cloud has cleared away (if it gets this far)

[Airedalejoe]

Thinest of new coverings this morning..fell at 2am. Current temp -0.4.

[izi]

rain here in newcastle after -3.6oC last night temp has shot up to 1oC

edit: think it was actually sleet/snow/hail as I can see there is a covering left outside, although very very small.

temp is rising quickly here. 2oC now

Edited December 29, 2009 by izi

[geordiekev]

Had a fair few of fine hail showers in last hour up here. Now turned into moderate snow with flakes getting larger. Starting to cover the few bare patches around.

[recklessabandon]

light sleet/snow in Shotley (105m) with bits of hail, dusting on all surfaces now filling in bare patches. Sky has a 'typical' look of a NE flow about it. fingers crossed for some more developed convective activity as the day moves on and the front stays to the south of us.

[izi]

3oC here now

[paul tall]

30C? That's a bit hot for December.

To do a temperature symbol, hold down alt and type 0186.

Like this....º

[izi]

30C? That's a bit hot for December.

To do a temperature symbol, hold down alt and type 0186.

Like this....º

hmm doesnt work for me, but you knew what i meant 30oC would be like that

[peterf]

hmm doesnt work for me, but you knew what i meant 30oC would be like that

thats 300

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Very heavy hail battering off the windows here, covering everywhere too.

This has turned into quite a big shower on the radar.

[peterf]

bright with light sleet here,cancel that wet snow now.

[peterf]

spells of heavy snow off and on here,it's gone really dark from the NE.

looks like the feed here is comming directly from Sunderland.cheers my mackem friends

[Alex95]

Does anyone wish to have a guess at what is happening tonight? It looks like low levels will simply get rain and sleet, but it is very messy. Also, is the frontal rain/snow that the Midlands are experiencing today going to hit us, or will it be North Sea showers? I know that if the frontal precipitation hits us it will clear to showers fairly quickly tomorrow.

Edited December 29, 2009 by alza

[peterf]

Does anyone wish to have a guess at what is happening tonight? It looks like low levels will simply get rain and sleet, but it is very messy. Also, is the frontal rain/snow that the Midlands are experiencing today going to hit us, or will it be North Sea showers? I know that if the frontal precipitation hits us it will clear to showers fairly quickly tomorrow.

well this snow is showing as sleet for my postcode,so once the temps fall away later i'm confident of more snow snow as long as the feed keeps up.

proper deluge here now

these are the biggest flakes of sleet iv'e ever seen

[Snowstorm1]

Is it going to snow tonight and tommorrow?

[peterf]

Is it going to snow tonight and tommorrow?

can only speak about my location really,but if these precip feeds continue i fully expect more up here.

[topsweep1506]

Just had a shower pass through Crammy with bits of everything in it (snow/rain/hail) still going now

Temp - +2.6c dew +0.2c

[peterf]

temps down to 1c here now.

[Geordiesnow]

Had a rain shower around 10-15 mins ago but it would seem like the North Sea showers are starting to become more obvious on the radar though.

Problem with today and i suspect tomorrow will be the same that there is too much high cloud around which one, stops proper convection taking place and 2, it makes shower spotting much more difficult due to the amount of cloud cover.

It would seem, roughly around Thursday/Friday will be our best days for proper sunshine and showers set up rather than the cloudy with showers set up we have now.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Geordiesnow

[Rollo]

I just came through a heavy sleet shower about 2 miles east of my location,temperature was 1c but rose to 1.5c as I exited the shower.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Had a rain shower around 10-15 mins ago but it would seem like the North Sea showers are starting to become more obvious on the radar though.

Problem with today and i suspect tomorrow will be the same that there is too much high cloud around which one, stops proper convection taking place and 2, it makes shower spotting much more difficult due to the amount of cloud cover.

It would seem, roughly around Thursday/Friday will be our best days for proper sunshine and showers set up rather than the cloudy with showers set up we have now.

Yes, and the colder air will be digging in by then, enabling showers to fall as snow even out to the coast, whereas it's unlikely we'll get any advance on a wintry mix tomorrow.

Today has had some rain & hail showers about in Cleadon and a surprising high of 4.9C (currently 3.8 ). The temperature shot up between 6 and 7am as the easterly wind picked up, though clouds were drifting in from the east from about 11am onwards. I went to Corbridge today and there was a dusting of fresh snow there which melted under hail and sleet showers, and it was just 2C there.

2.6C max at Newton Aycliffe and 4.9 at Cleadon- a stark illustration of the warming effects at the coast!

Edit: Outlook from the models- sunshine and snow showers from Thursday to Sunday!

Edited December 29, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers