General Model Output Discussion:

[Yeti]

I would say the UKMO is more like ice cream than a vintage steak - some people are saying the GFS would give better convection vs. the UKMO but in reality the opposite might be true because of the uppers. The GFS still brings the low further N than the UKMO so the air over England is sourced from the near continent (which is warmed somewhat by the low as it moves in and sinks SE).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

The UKMO on the other hand sources the air from the Arctic:

The colder uppers would probably give more convection than the GFS would... although having said that the surface flow off the continent would still be very cold. The SE is extremely close to that milder air however.

UKMO a much safer bet long term.

[Alex95]

GEFS mean at +96.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-96.png?12

I've looked at charts like this for years but the difference is this was an individual member at +384. Quiet stunning output this evening so far.

I dare anyone to complain and say "its dry" or "there will be a lack of white blobs on the BBC forecasts". :lol:

Just seen Andy has already said it.

Or an archive chart from 1963?

And btw it'll be dry, not much wet snow just all dry, deep powder. :lol:

[isickle]

Its becoming bitterly cold in Southern Sweden right now ! If this heads "our" way (not so good for me in Wales) then what do you recon the temps on the East Coast may be after travelling over the North Sea ?

Yes, Oslo already -16 and Moscow -12 by sunday.

Ian

[andy_leics22]

Let me just say though guys... A few people are saying "It's one of the best starts to winter we have had and you are still moaning" etc... But there is good reason to moan if the most snow you have seen since the start of this Winter has been 1cm dusting over the course of 2 weeks worth of bitterly cold weather. Of course some people have seen inches of the stuff but snow is what I love. What good is cold weather if you don't see snow? No good, just raises heating bills. I wouldn't mind the raise in heating bills IF we had some nice snow here to look at and the kids of the area to play with it.

I'm not saying i'm the only one who has had a poor start to winter as I know i'm not but the Models don't look snowy to me for the next 7 days. Anything beyond 7 days is practically useless because it can change massively.

Edited December 30, 2009 by andy_leics22

[weather eater]

Agreed...just stale bread for us again!

I have to say to both you and Andy, its no better for me, the difference is I'm happy for who ever gets some. It was a shame here last night and today, snow on the hill tops and rain for those of us half way down, and its been blowing a hooley, so blizzards would have been the order of the day. Never mind the coldest two months of winter to come, and the latest model output suggests severe cold becoming embedded across the UK, so plenty of potential may come from future outputs, of course we could go back to blowtorch SWlys if you like. Like I say chaps recent model outputs may well be poor for snow in your neck of the woods and mine, but subtle changes, which will occur, because they always do, may bring us more luck.

[pyrotech]

I would say the UKMO is more like ice cream than a vintage steak - some people are saying the GFS would give better convection vs. the UKMO but in reality the opposite might be true because of the uppers. The GFS still brings the low further N than the UKMO so the air over England is sourced from the near continent (which is warmed somewhat by the low as it moves in and sinks SE).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

The UKMO on the other hand sources the air from the Arctic:

The colder uppers would probably give more convection than the GFS would... although having said that the surface flow off the continent would still be very cold. The SE is extremely close to that milder air however.

UKMO a much safer bet long term.

To be honest the fax charts are taken partly from UKMO and then given human interpretation of most likely scenario and fax 120hrs and GFS 96HRS both for 12z sunday are almost identical with the low in the Southwest.

Remember the best model for short term is the NAE

any chance the netweather team can look at it (NAE CHARTS)getting added to the data page it as i do not want to post links from here to other sites.

Will post NAE charts on floodwarn site in next 24hrs in mean time

[snowdrifter]

What good is cold weather if you don't see snow? No good, just raises heating bills. I wouldn't mind the raise in heating bills IF we had some nice snow here to look at and the kids of the area to play with it.

Took the words out of my mouth andy! I don't simply want to freeze, I want to build a snowman.

[Geordiesnow]

I'm not saying i'm the only one who has had a poor start to winter as I know i'm not but the Models don't look snowy to me for the next 7 days. Anything beyond 7 days is practically useless because it can change massively.

Don't agree with that, the charts at the moment especially the UKMO would paint a snowy picture for quite alot of areas as the Northerly is tilted to the east so a nice NNE which can bring showers quite far inland to those eastern areas. Obviously places like Northern Scotland and the Shetland Isles would be hardest hit i would of thought and places in the North of Northern Ireland would be at risk aswell as the east coast of Ireland.

Obviously things can and probably will change into hopefully most on here would be satisfied with!

[TEITS]

Let me just say though guys... A few people are saying "It's one of the best starts to winter we have had and you are still moaning" etc... But there is good reason to moan if the most snow you have seen since the start of this Winter has been 1cm dusting over the course of 2 weeks worth of bitterly cold weather. Of course some people have seen inches of the stuff but snow is what I love. What good is cold weather if you don't see snow? No good, just raises heating bills. I wouldn't mind the raise in heating bills IF we had some nice snow here to look at and the kids of the area to play with it.

I'm not saying i'm the only one who has had a poor start to winter as I know i'm not but the Models don't look snowy to me for the next 7 days. Anything beyond 7 days is practically useless because it can change massively.

The thing is though Andy you won't get snow in a mild SW,ly. Nobody at the moment knows whether it will be a N/NE/ENE,ly or even E,ly. Even then we could see more organised bands of snow developing in the N Sea and push well inland.

A good example is last Feb cold spell. When the SE was hit by the streamer I was gutted at missing it because at the time I couldn't see anymore snowfall in the models. However during that week I experienced three heavy snowfalls which developed out of the blue.

The bottom line is you will be hard pushed to find much better synoptics than we're currently seeing. Don't worry about the snowfall because it won't be modelled accurately at the moment.

[izi]

Took the words out of my mouth andy! I don't simply want to freeze, I want to build a snowman.

all those whining about no snow, please leave it out. Just because your area won't be getting some doesnt mean others won't. I for one probably will being on North East of england.

Mods feel free to delete this non related post (along with every other one!)

Edited December 30, 2009 by izi

[Yeti]

To be honest the fax charts are taken partly from UKMO and then given human interpretation of most likely scenario and fax 120hrs and GFS 96HRS both for 12z sunday are almost identical with the low in the Southwest.

Remember the best model for short term is the NAE

any chance the netweather team can look at it (NAE CHARTS)getting added to the data page it as i do not want to post links from here to other sites.

Will post NAE charts on floodwarn site in next 24hrs in mean time

The FAX charts still have everything about 100-200 miles further S though, so it will be interesting to see what they put out tonight. Even that much of a difference could have quite a noticeable impact.

As we can see from the rainfall totals the 12z was a fairly dry run for the UK which is what may be worrying people; however this will almost certainly change as the models pick up on disturbances later on (FAX charts are good for this too!).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.gif

[andy_leics22]

all those whining about no snow, please leave it out. Just because your area won't be getting some doesnt mean others won't. I for one probably will being on North East of england.

Mods feel free to delete this no related post (along with every other one!) - just need to tell ppl to shush as its annoying!

That is exactly the point You will so you have no complaints... Love to hear what you would say if it was a North Westerly giving snow to Western areas and leaving you with cold dry conditions

[Geordiesnow]

The thing is though Andy you won't get snow in a mild SW,ly. Nobody at the moment knows whether it will be a N/NE/ENE,ly or even E,ly. Even then we could see more organised bands of snow developing in the N Sea and push well inland.

A good example is last Feb cold spell. When the SE was hit by the streamer I was gutted at missing it because at the time I couldn't see anymore snowfall in the models. However during that week I experienced three heavy snowfalls which developed out of the blue.

The bottom line is you will be hard pushed to find much better synoptics than we're currently seeing. Don't worry about the snowfall because it won't be modelled accurately at the moment.

Or it could go all t*ts up, and very few places would have snow and the cold air is being replaced by mild air.

Your right though, we don't get snow from a SW'ly so try and enjoy the charts at least from a cold fan POV.

Who knows, Andy might be a bit more happier and confident if he gets any snow showers tomorrow night from that shortlived easterly.

[Thundersquall]

Just viewed the latest 12Z run from GFS. Amazing run of cold up to at moment 12th January. Just hope this isn't a cold outlier.

Favoured places for snow appear to be more southern counties of England and Wales, as successive low pressure systems try and fail to push milder air northwards, instead anchoring themselves to the southwest of Cornwall. This approaching Sunday into Monday 4th January looks like the greatest threat of something wintry for the West Country and South Wales.

Edited December 30, 2009 by Thundersquall

[azores92]

lets be honest here guys, when we are talking about convection and e/ne winds blowing in showers, naturally the east coast will be favoured for snow showers, and it will take a strong flow/troughs to get the showers to penetrate inland, and generally speaking here in the midlands it is a battleground situation that delivers the most snow. when the colder air comes into place over the uk, this should aid our chances of snow, and make the situation less marginal. as someone said earlier, snow is likely to be marginal in the uk away from higher ground in most situations, but c'est la vie. the best thing is that the AO is exceptionally negative, meaning that heights should be fairly prominent to the north. but the development of lows/cyclonic development near to greenland is going to pressurise our block, and a slight difference in the positioning of the greenland high determines whether the arctic air gets advected towards us. also we want the jet stream to remain as far south as possible. the gfs is being its usual self in FI streaming the atlantic back in, but the scandi trough is acting as our friend at the moment. it was GP who said things could be shaping up for a severe wintry spell in the second half of jan, presumably from a biting easterly, depending on the amount of cold air in europe?

[izi]

That is exactly the point You will so you have no complaints... Love to hear what you would say if it was a North Westerly giving snow to Western areas and leaving you with cold dry conditions

it was all alst week! we only had an inch or two of snow, many other places had 6 inches or more.

just childish, i sit and watch other people have snow and I dont care, i'm happy for them. i dont come in here and cry like a 10 year old when the weather is not favoured in my area.

Edited December 30, 2009 by izi

[snowdrifter]

all those whining about no snow, please leave it out. Just because your area won't be getting some doesnt mean others won't. I for one probably will being on North East of england.

Mods feel free to delete this non related post (along with every other one!)

A simple 1 liner izi for which I apologise. I hope you get lots of snow and in fact with the current model output many areas will have chances. Even here troughs could develop, even a polar low. It was a light-hearted agreement. Sorry if it offended/was off topic.

[andy_leics22]

it was all alst week! we only had an inch or two of snow, many other places had 6 inches or more.

just childish, i sit and watch other people have snow and I dont care, i'm happy for them. i dont come in here and cry like a 10 year old when the weather is not favoured in my area.

An inch or 2!!?? lucky you, I got 1cm at best and that was pushing it, it was more 0.5cm

[bennytes]

Just viewed the latest 12Z run from GFS. Amazing run of cold up to at moment 12th January. Just hope this isn't a cold outlier.

Favoured places for snow appear to be more southern counties of England and Wales, as successive low pressure systems try and fail to push milder air northwards, instead anchoring themselves to the southwest of Cornwall. This approaching Sunday into Monday 4th January looks like the greatest threat of something wintry for the West Country and South Wales.

i'll believe that when i see it.

[Yeti]

GEM rolling out now to 96 and is very good so far - the US trough is stronger and reaches further E, the block in turn is based further E and the low, crucially, is further S than on the GEM 00z:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-96.png

Now out to 108 and this is an excellent chart for the SE:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-108.png

Almost a channel low there and with winds ranging from NNE to ENE showers would reach many parts of the UK.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Outstanding output this evening.

That ukmo run leaves me gobsmacked,we'll see some troughs in that flow im sure of it!

Even at 144h we have a lovely Greenland high and a flow straight from the Artic,no marginal rubbish like we are currently seeing.

[Frosty.]

Favoured places for snow appear to be more southern counties of England and Wales,

I must be looking at different charts to you then, with a N'ly or NE'ly flow, the greatest risk of snow is in the north and east, especially bordering the north sea day after day from tomorrow through to the end of next week. If anything, southern counties of england look like being the sunniest and driest locations once the current front is gone.

[Southender]

Jesus. The bickering on here is unreal. Get a grip. Its simple. Established cold air, plus being surrounded by water equals snow. Forget what is being shown on the ppn charts at the moment, for next wk. My 4 yr old could do just an accurate job with a crayon. Showers and longers spells of snow can crop up anywhere. The main thing is getting the cold in place first. Unless you want wrong side of marginal stuff. Chill out and ignore the ppn distribution for now.

[snowmadchrisuk]

My metoffice forecast for the last couple of days snow showers from Friday and becoming heavier and more frequent over the weekend , but GFS has most of the country dry ? Anybody work out what's making them think different. UKMO precipitation charts don't go out long enough for me to check .

[andy_leics22]

The thing is though Andy you won't get snow in a mild SW,ly. Nobody at the moment knows whether it will be a N/NE/ENE,ly or even E,ly. Even then we could see more organised bands of snow developing in the N Sea and push well inland.

A good example is last Feb cold spell. When the SE was hit by the streamer I was gutted at missing it because at the time I couldn't see anymore snowfall in the models. However during that week I experienced three heavy snowfalls which developed out of the blue.

The bottom line is you will be hard pushed to find much better synoptics than we're currently seeing. Don't worry about the snowfall because it won't be modelled accurately at the moment.

True, I am being too picky here and I shouldn't be. Apologies everyone.

Just cheesed off at how poor it has been for my location so far thats all, I am not being selfish I am just talking as a snow lover who likes to see inches of snow just like any other snow fan on here.

Models do look good with blocking etc... I have never in my 5 years on here seen such a long sustained block that we have seen in the past 2 weeks, so it is good to see, just hope it delivers some snow for my location unlike last week.