General Model Output Discussion:

[NorthernRab]

Looking at many of these charts in early FI, which offer a few clear nights under very cold 850hPa, the Scottish Highlands could at a push record a sub -30'C. Some impressive cold out being suggested for the new decade, but in the reliable timeframe it looks as though the UK is more or less definitely going to continue to see cold temperatures until the start of the 2010 at least.

[SMU]

Run of the day is clearly going to go to the NOGAPS 12z-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php

Winds going Easterly from the low, with more Easterlies pushing west- then another reload of North easterlies again!!!!

ECM Rolling out- T72-

interesting to see how far west the Trough from norway gets- some have that Easterly push just getting a tad further west-

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Bound to change on the next run but nice to look at nonetheless

RRR

You took my severe weather warning off your sig...why?

Mr MURR....that penultimate post from you where you said...last one for a while didn't last long... Ithink that SW from norway will cause very heavy snow for NE areas and is a snow friend.

BFTP

Edited December 29, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mondy]

Well if this synoptic situation early next week does not provide snowstorms for the south ..."I WILL FLASH MY ASS IN THE NEAREST WINDOW OF A SUPERMARKET"!!! :o

Isn' that much the same situation as this "event" which has pretty much petered out ?

[TEITS]

Isn' that much the same situation as this "event" which has pretty much petered out ?

Chalk and cheese.

If the LP did hit the S/SE it would most certainly be a snow event due to two reasons. The first being much colder temps and secondly the flow would be more SE,ly than E,ly. The dewpoints would be much colder.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The SW coming from Norway is a snow friend....the 12z ECM is absolutely awesome. Expect this to more or less verify.

BFTP

Edited December 29, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[on the coast]

The SW coming from Norway is a snow friend....the 12z ECM is absolutely awesome.

BFTP

The 144 chart looks fantastic. Excellent ECM so far.

[SMU]

Run of the day is clearly going to go to the NOGAPS 12z-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php

Winds going Easterly from the low, with more Easterlies pushing west- then another reload of North easterlies again!!!!

ECM Rolling out- T72-

interesting to see how far west the Trough from norway gets- some have that Easterly push just getting a tad further west-

S

ECM follows the 12z NOGAPS_ - reload from the NE at 168-

:o:o

S

Edited December 29, 2009 by Steve Murr

[Snowaddict]

ECMWF is absolutely stunning!!!!

A Stunner to T+168!

SA

[TEITS]

ECM is definately trending towards what I said this morning about the GEM ensembles.

I can't wait for +192!

[cooling climate]

ECM is definately trending towards what I said this morning about the GEM ensembles.

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?29-0

I can't wait for +192!

Yes goes along with what NOAA was saying yesterday.

Absolute corker of a run so far. I would not mind betting the GFS will be playing catch up again.

T192 is a peach and looking at the run on the n/hemisphere charts the t240 chart could well be

awesome.

Edited December 29, 2009 by cooling climate

[SMU]

ECM 192-

Bound for the reload-- given any form of choice I would take this to the bank.......- sub zero CET for the first 7 days of jan if it varified-

S

[TEITS]

Yes goes along with what NOAA was saying yesterday.

Absolute corker of a run so far. I would not mind betting the GFS will be playing catch up again.

Pretty obvious now that the Met O 6-15 day forecast was based on the ECM ensembles. The charts between +168 & +192 are stunners and would indeed give more widespread, persistant snow showers.

You would be hard pushed to find a better chart!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the ECMWF has a slightly less west-based negative NAO which causes the polar air to hit the British Isles full-on instead of the trough moving south over Britain and the polar air being diverted out west as per the outbreak of 19-25 December. The ECMWF, alongside NOGAPS, indicates the coldest & snowiest possible outcome with a northerly veering NE'ly as low pressure sinks south to the east of us.

I think it's too far out to say which model is "right" at this stage but already encouraging signs for cold/snow lovers that this upcoming spell may be more fruitful for those in many eastern and southern areas than the last one was. Remember, though, that in the last spell, many model runs initially placed the trough and associated -ve NAO too far east, so there's also the chance that this trough, too, could trend west on future runs and scupper the NE'ly reload.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[WINTRY WALES]

ECM is definately trending towards what I said this morning about the GEM ensembles.

I can't wait for +192!

Is there an lows showing up from the south west bumping into this very cold air on our doorsteps?

Surely this ould be the best chance for widespread snow?

[SMU]

Is there an lows showing up from the south west bumping into this very cold air on our doorsteps?

Surely this ould be the best chance for widespread snow?

YEP- surface feed from entrenchd cold over the continent-

-30 reached over the UK....... Thames freezes-

Please let this evolution varify-

Steve

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

RRR

You took my severe weather warning off your sig...why?

With the emote i got the impression you didn't like it

The outlook is looking quite cold according to the ECM

[SMU]

Is there an lows showing up from the south west bumping into this very cold air on our doorsteps?

Surely this ould be the best chance for widespread snow?

YEP- surface feed from entrenchd cold over the continent-

-30 reached over the UK....... Thames freezes-

jet stream over Africa

Please let this evolution varify-

Steve

[on the coast]

Well according to the ECM the day after tomorrow is on its way to the UK. LOL. 216 chart and we are all doomed.

[TEITS]

.

I think it's too far out to say which model is "right" at this stage but already encouraging signs for cold/snow lovers that this upcoming spell may be more fruitful for those in many eastern and southern areas than the last one was. Remember, though, that in the last spell, many model runs initially placed the trough and associated -ve NAO too far east, so there's also the chance that this trough, too, could trend west on future runs and scupper the NE'ly reload.

Very true.

However at the moment based on what I have seen from the GEM/ECM the trend is backing away from a W based NAO. Also like I said my previous post many of the ECM ensembles must of been showing this as the 12Z fits perfectly with the forecast whereas the 0Z didn't.

Im going to resist getting excited (very diifcult) and would expect the GFS to pick up this trend in 5 days time.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

YEP- surface feed from entrenchd cold over the continent-

-30 reached over the UK....... Thames freezes-

Please let this evolution varify-

Steve

Even in the winter of 62/63 the Thames didn't freeze over

Would this setup just be snowy for northern and eastern areas, if it was to verify in any way?

[ANYWEATHER]

Isn' that much the same situation as this "event" which has pretty much petered out ?

Look at the much colder 850 temps mate, certainly cold enough for coastal snow...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With the emote i got the impression you didn't like it

The outlook is looking quite cold according to the ECM

Not at all!!!

Steve, yes 7-10 Jan signal for serious cold and big snow event. That secondary trough at T216/40 is looking like it has our name on it. 3-5 Jan first real hit away from Wales and Mids, Midmonth....more on that later...but further serious weather

Follow the evolution...T240 ECM shows one thing...big big battle ground as we head towards midmonth, What a run, lets see GFS come crawling in.

Hi Dave I won't re-post but yes....it leads to major winter event. My view has always been that New Year for South wouldn't be a general snow event but cold will quickly dig south. Suffice to say I support the ECM tonight.

BFTP

Edited December 29, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TEITS]

Not at all!!!

Steve, yes 7-10 Jan signal for serious cold and big snow event. That secondary trough at T216/40 is looking like it has our name on it. 3-5 Jan first real hit away from Wales and Mids, Midmonth....more on that later...but further serious weather

BFTP

I wonder what the min temps would be on the +216/+240 charts?

As you say that would be serious cold.

Obviously because of the distance away its hard to resist getting excited. However comparing this run to last nights 12Z, this mornings 0Z, this has to be one of the biggest upgrades I have seen in the medium range. Also it wouldn't end after the +240 chart!!

[SMU]

Even in the winter of 62/63 the Thames didn't freeze over

Would this setup just be snowy for northern and eastern areas, if it was to verify in any way?

*IF* the 216 & 240 Charts developed there would be pancake iceflow down the estuary- all local rivers frozen-

Surface temps WELL below freezing by day-

From a meterolgical perpective It would be EPIC, although fundamentally damaging to the economy....

S