South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[REXUS]

Snowing on the villa v liverpool match on sky,watch it in HD for pure snow quality.Wish it was outside my window though

[Theresnoway]

Some hefty looking showers coming up although it will be sleet again acording to my crystal ball.

Snow for dorset later in week but they don't get north enough to reach north somerset what a joke.

What is the ppn falling as in bristol now anyway?

Hi Mull,

I wish that statement was true, but not according to the Met-Office, what is your source?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/dorchester_forecast_weather.html

Also knowing local conditions I would say unlikely, medium / longer term forecast is looking more promising though. Hopefully we can get this cold pattern really locked over the whole of the uk and then for lows to track in from the South West, stalling over us rather than the Midlands / Wales.

Dave

[Bristawl Si]

Thanks Ian, once again. At least a 'reality' post, as opposed to some of the more 'over the top' posts on the Model Discussion Thread over the last couple of days. Even those normally reknowned for very informative, but 'non-ramping' posts, have gone into overdrive on the cold, snow threat and i think led some of us to believe a winter armageddon was about to descend on the UK.

[BristolBlizzard]

Thanks Ian, once again. At least a 'reality' post, as opposed to some of the more 'over the top' posts on the Model Discussion Thread over the last couple of days. Even those normally reknowned for very informative, but 'non-ramping' posts, have gone into overdrive on the cold, snow threat and i think led some of us to believe a winter armageddon was about to descend on the UK.

Edited December 29, 2009 by cityatnight2001

[Mark Parsons]

Hi all

Some of these convective clusters on radar to the SW look interesting. Meantime, we retain a snow threat tonight for upland Glos, effectively as expected.

Looking ahead:

The events of Thurs remains somewhat blurred albeit the UKMO GM (Global Model) has now falllen into wider agreement with most other output (the GM having been blighted by a data assimilation problem over the last 24+hrs but now resolved).

The weakening frontal zone sinks south through Wales, Midlands and into southern England, but on current reckoning, unlikely to offer disruptive snowfall or indeed, even much snowfall for many as it tends to fragment with the upper forcing departing through a westward shear. However - as earlier noted - some ensemble members - including the latest GM run - want to propose a more dramatic solution for NewYear's Eve, offering a ca. 30-% (currently) risk that via a shortwave feature, snowfall could prove far more bothersome into at least (and primarily, I stress) the SE quadrant of England (and if it was reality, a newsworthy end to 2009 in London and environs).

But more readily reportable is the high likelihood of a very, very raw feel to New Year's Eve widely -- bitterly cold for revellers, with a significant wind chill and noteworthy are some model suggestions of overnight minima across any snowy areas dropping to around -17 to -20 in rural districts. And that's news in itself, even sans snow. The snow risk - for what it's worth - is modelled in the attached frames from the lovely MOGREPS product that fared really accurately today. The top line is snowfall (rain equivalent) >1mm probs in mm between (left) 00-12Z Thurs to (right) 12Z Fri-00Z Sat and lower row, the same timeframe but for >5mm snow rain equivalent. In other words, a chance of snow effectively anywhere between now and Fri in the SW but critically, the PROB values are low.....those green shaded indicating <20-30% for any one district.

Beyond that, there's potential for problems to brew into the SW later into the weekend but it's frankly a meteorological lifetime away and I personally despair of the varied GFS-ophilia / GFSycophancy and other ramping of distant, speculative and often known cold/snowy-bias modelling that sits poorly with statistical certainty. But for sure, the broader theme of a colder spell lasting well into ((perhaps beyond?) the 6-15 day outlook remains fairly solid, albeit with a few caveats. As for PPN detail.....a nightmare, so let's await the shorter-range developments before further hyperventilation about winter superstorms and the like.

That's prudent science, not least in terms of public consumption (remember the BBQ Summer PR mess?) as opposed to bone-fide and valuable efforts ( = science is all about pioneering spirit) at longer range model synthesis in academia.

At last someone with a qualified over view of the general situation, hallaluyah, but will anyone take any notice!!!! Thank you Ian.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Thanks again Ian

Maybe you should apply http://forum.netweather.tv/forum-1/announcement-146-would-you-like-to-join-the-netweather-forecast-team/

[dogs32]

Hi all

Some of these convective clusters on radar to the SW look interesting. Meantime, we retain a snow threat tonight for upland Glos, effectively as expected.

Looking ahead:

The events of Thurs remains somewhat blurred albeit the UKMO GM (Global Model) has now falllen into wider agreement with most other output (the GM having been blighted by a data assimilation problem over the last 24+hrs but now resolved).

The weakening frontal zone sinks south through Wales, Midlands and into southern England, but on current reckoning, unlikely to offer disruptive snowfall or indeed, even much snowfall for many as it tends to fragment with the upper forcing departing through a westward shear. However - as earlier noted - some ensemble members - including the latest GM run - want to propose a more dramatic solution for NewYear's Eve, offering a ca. 30-% (currently) risk that via a shortwave feature, snowfall could prove far more bothersome into at least (and primarily, I stress) the SE quadrant of England (and if it was reality, a newsworthy end to 2009 in London and environs).

But more readily reportable is the high likelihood of a very, very raw feel to New Year's Eve widely -- bitterly cold for revellers, with a significant wind chill and noteworthy are some model suggestions of overnight minima across any snowy areas dropping to around -17 to -20 in rural districts. And that's news in itself, even sans snow. The snow risk - for what it's worth - is modelled in the attached frames from the lovely MOGREPS product that fared really accurately today. The top line is snowfall (rain equivalent) >1mm probs in mm between (left) 00-12Z Thurs to (right) 12Z Fri-00Z Sat and lower row, the same timeframe but for >5mm snow rain equivalent. In other words, a chance of snow effectively anywhere between now and Fri in the SW but critically, the PROB values are low.....those green shaded indicating <20-30% for any one district.

Beyond that, there's potential for problems to brew into the SW later into the weekend but it's frankly a meteorological lifetime away and I personally despair of the varied GFS-ophilia / GFSycophancy and other ramping of distant, speculative and often known cold/snowy-bias modelling that sits poorly with statistical certainty. But for sure, the broader theme of a colder spell lasting well into ((perhaps beyond?) the 6-15 day outlook remains fairly solid, albeit with a few caveats. As for PPN detail.....a nightmare, so let's await the shorter-range developments before further hyperventilation about winter superstorms and the like.

That's prudent science, not least in terms of public consumption (remember the BBQ Summer PR mess?) as opposed to bone-fide and valuable efforts ( = science is all about pioneering spirit) at longer range model synthesis in academia.

Thx for your time Ian.

very good forecasting!!! from the other wintry spells

A man know's is stuff

Edited December 29, 2009 by dogs32

[Dorset_Weather]

Thanks Ian, very informative post and hopefully bring back some reality after all the ramping I've just been reading on the general model thread with people reading into the ECM 240 what the hell is all that about!

[BristolBlizzard]

Cheers Ian.

People in the Model Thread need to listen to this guy for a reality check. Too much ramping goes on in there, which 99% of the time leaves people disappointed. No disrespect to anybody on the forums but from now on I'm only going to take notice to Ian/BBC and the MetO.

Edited December 29, 2009 by BristolBlizzard

[dogs32]

big beefy shower here...more snow in it than the main front,still sleety but I would say 70/30 snow

[BristolBlizzard]

Hi all

Some of these convective clusters on radar to the SW look interesting. Meantime, we retain a snow threat tonight for upland Glos, effectively as expected.

Looking ahead:

The events of Thurs remains somewhat blurred albeit the UKMO GM (Global Model) has now falllen into wider agreement with most other output (the GM having been blighted by a data assimilation problem over the last 24+hrs but now resolved).

The weakening frontal zone sinks south through Wales, Midlands and into southern England, but on current reckoning, unlikely to offer disruptive snowfall or indeed, even much snowfall for many as it tends to fragment with the upper forcing departing through a westward shear. However - as earlier noted - some ensemble members - including the latest GM run - want to propose a more dramatic solution for NewYear's Eve, offering a ca. 30-% (currently) risk that via a shortwave feature, snowfall could prove far more bothersome into at least (and primarily, I stress) the SE quadrant of England (and if it was reality, a newsworthy end to 2009 in London and environs).

But more readily reportable is the high likelihood of a very, very raw feel to New Year's Eve widely -- bitterly cold for revellers, with a significant wind chill and noteworthy are some model suggestions of overnight minima across any snowy areas dropping to around -17 to -20 in rural districts. And that's news in itself, even sans snow. The snow risk - for what it's worth - is modelled in the attached frames from the lovely MOGREPS product that fared really accurately today. The top line is snowfall (rain equivalent) >1mm probs in mm between (left) 00-12Z Thurs to (right) 12Z Fri-00Z Sat and lower row, the same timeframe but for >5mm snow rain equivalent. In other words, a chance of snow effectively anywhere between now and Fri in the SW but critically, the PROB values are low.....those green shaded indicating <20-30% for any one district.

Beyond that, there's potential for problems to brew into the SW later into the weekend but it's frankly a meteorological lifetime away and I personally despair of the varied GFS-ophilia / GFSycophancy and other ramping of distant, speculative and often known cold/snowy-bias modelling that sits poorly with statistical certainty. But for sure, the broader theme of a colder spell lasting well into ((perhaps beyond?) the 6-15 day outlook remains fairly solid, albeit with a few caveats. As for PPN detail.....a nightmare, so let's await the shorter-range developments before further hyperventilation about winter superstorms and the like.

That's prudent science, not least in terms of public consumption (remember the BBQ Summer PR mess?) as opposed to bone-fide and valuable efforts ( = science is all about pioneering spirit) at longer range model synthesis in academia.

thanks ian

Edited December 29, 2009 by cityatnight2001

[Ian Fergusson]

d

Thanks Ian, once again. At least a 'reality' post, as opposed to some of the more 'over the top' posts on the Model Discussion Thread over the last couple of days. Even those normally reknowned for very informative, but 'non-ramping' posts, have gone into overdrive on the cold, snow threat and i think led some of us to believe a winter armageddon was about to descend on the UK.

Well to be fair - it still could.

(sermon here follows..... unashamedly)

Therein lies the problem when faced with a clearly (very?) prolonged cold spell blurred with innumerable uncertainties and problematic forecasting issues in the short-term/mesoscale, let alone the sort of longer range discussed on that part of the Netweather forum.

There's some extremely learned folks on there and I'm certainly not going to dismiss any of their viewpoints because (a) history shows that we are all here due to an interest in a rather elastic, unpredictable and all-the-more-fascinating branch of science and they're often correct and ( I'm a marine biologist by original profession with an expertise in shark biogeography, not long-range weather modelling.

So.....as a kindred scientific spirit.......

Please spare a thought for the oft-criticised but hard-working and very clever folks at UKMO Ops Centre and Hadley Centre (and my BBC Weather Centre peers), who bear the brunt of public wrath when forecasts go awry but who receive scant media or public appreciation when they get things right ( = statistically, most of the time).

They, lest us forget, have no luxury of providing non-official / over-hyped / unqualified weather warnings posted on privateer websites; instead, the very opposite: they advise the key UK broadcast media and thus the mass public; and equally consultancy to a raft of organisations from military to civil aviation and sporting events.

When things go wrong, it's very, very public. No hiding behind obscure websites. Far from it. Witness the summer 2009 furore.....

The stakes are high and I can fully attest - as a BBC, not UKMO staffmember - that they care every bit as passionately about getting the weather (and warnings) riight as anyone on this forum, be it in the next 1hr or next 1 month.

Hopefully their accurate forecasting and areal warnings today helps prove the point: while GFS was suggestive of an utterly variant solution and yet is the most publically-accessible and oft-lauded model in many derivatives.

Perhaps (this is an argumentative point) if the UKMO made it's own higher-res products and high-res radar/SFERICS / whatever / widely and freely accessible, we'd see broader support for them on sites such as this, but that's another story of governmental proportions.....!

Meantime, I do get riled at seeing my MO colleagues slated for no good reason on some parts of this site, when - in every sense - they're also weather nuts and good scientists, just as keen to get things right as any one of their critics sniping from the incognito sidelines.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Ian Fergusson

[Lynxus]

Rants aside

Its currently raining with some sleet mixed in.

Pretty much what was expected but i hoped didnt happen

All i can do is keep my fingers crossed ( as if they were ever apart )

_g

[Bristawl Si]

d

Well to be fair - it still could.

(sermon here follows..... unashamedly)

Therein lies the problem when faced with a clearly (very?) prolonged cold spell blurred with innumerable uncertainties and problematic forecasting issues in the short-term/mesoscale, let alone the sort of longer range discussed on that part of the Netweather forum.

There's some extremely learned folks on there and I'm certainly not going to dismiss any of their viewpoints because (a) history shows that we are all here due to an interest in a rather elastic, unpredictable and all-the-more-fascinating branch of science and they're often correct and ( I'm a marine biologist by original profession with an expertise in shark biogeography, not long-range weather modelling.

So.....as a kindred scientific spirit.......

Please spare a thought for the oft-criticised but hard-working and very clever folks at UKMO Ops Centre and Hadley Centre (and my BBC Weather Centre peers), who bear the brunt of public wrath when forecasts go awry but who receive scant media or public appreciation when they get things right ( = statistically, most of the time).

They, lest us forget, have no luxury of providing non-official / over-hyped / unqualified weather warnings posted on privateer websites; instead, the very opposite: they advise the key UK broadcast media and thus the mass public; and equally consultancy to a raft of organisations from military to civil aviation and sporting events.

When things go wrong, it's very, very public. No hiding behind obscure websites. Far from it. Witness the summer 2009 furore.....

The stakes are high and I can fully attest - as a BBC, not UKMO staffmember - that they care every bit as passionately about getting the weather (and warnings) riight as anyone on this forum, be it in the next 1hr or next 1 month.

Hopefully their accurate forecasting and areal warnings today helps prove the point: while GFS was suggestive of an utterly variant solution and yet is the most publically-accessible and oft-lauded model in many derivatives.

Perhaps (this is an argumentative point) if the UKMO made it's own higher-res products and high-res radar/SFERICS / whatever / widely and freely accessible, we'd see broader support for them on sites such as this, but that's another story of governmental proportions.....!

Meantime, I do get riled at seeing my MO colleagues slated for no good reason on some parts of this site, when - in every sense - they're also weather nuts and good scientists, just as keen to get things right as any one of their critics sniping from the incognito sidelines.

Thanks Ian and a fairly robust defence of the UKMO model - this is the model that seems to get the most stick on the NW forum by even the most-learned contributors.

[Ian Fergusson]

Thanks Ian and a fairly robust defence of the UKMO model - this is the model that seems to get the most stick on the NW forum by even the most-learned contributors.

A lesson in science and especially scientific publishing:

Peer Review.....

can easily become....

Peer Revile.

And all semblance of co-operative scientific endeavour is thus lost. Irrespective of the discipline.

[dogs32]

well a chance of a prolonged cold spell,wasn't expecting that.

I suppose if this does evolve we will a have a few more wintry scene's yet.

And did If I read correct -17 over some rural snowy areas.

I dont think Im looking forward to this cold spell realy..

Bring on Spring with warm convective Anvil's

Lol..Thats a long way off..

anyway temp here 2.5

and heavy sleet

[Lynxus]

well a chance of a prolonged cold spell,wasn't expecting that.

I suppose if this does evolve we will a have a few more wintry scene's yet.

And did If I read correct -17 over some rural snowy areas.

I dont think Im looking forward to this cold spell realy..

Bring on Spring with warm convective Anvil's

Lol..Thats a long way off..

anyway temp here 2.5

and heavy sleet

LOL LOL< DID YOU SAY CONVECTIVE ANVILS!?

Round here?

Say what?

In spring.. Let alone summer!?

You've lost the plot mate.

Ian,

I feel for ya.

Im sure everyone here understands the pressures you guys at the BBC and the UKmeto get this time of year.

Evidently its always good to over estimate the possible damage than just say "yeah its all gonna be fine"

as its you guys who get the brunt from the public.

I think we all ( myself included ) have moaned about the BBC forecasts and the Metoffice's forecasts.

Deep down i think its just a way to vent some anger at someone when a piece of unpredictable weather doesn't do what its told.

Im sure you dont take any of it to heart and your probably shouldnt 95% of the time.

You all do a fantastic job and watching you guys at work on tv is probably another reason why people start to look up at the skies and think to themselves.. How does this shiznit work?

keep up the good work, and dont take rants to heart

-G

[Ripeberry]

Thanks for all your info Ian. Glad to know that there is still a cold spell expected. The

other forecasters keep pointing out how mild it is in the SW!

[dogs32]

Lynxus I photographed a Anvil on Boxing day toward's Glos,Though it was weak.

So Anvil's are seen even in December..Though not many around Abbeymead/Glos

Still wet snow here and getting heavier

Temp stable at 2.5

[Lynxus]

Lynxus I photographed a Anvil on Boxing day toward's Glos,Though it was weak.

So Anvil's are seen even in December..Though not many around Abbeymead/Glos

Still wet snow here and getting heavier

Temp stable at 2.5

Sill sleeting here :o

Doesnt look like the temps are gonna budge that much this side of the week.

I wonder what jan and feb has in store for us. BRB im gonna catch a quick flight to FI

Edited December 29, 2009 by Lynxus

[Dorset_Weather]

d

Well to be fair - it still could.

(sermon here follows..... unashamedly)

Therein lies the problem when faced with a clearly (very?) prolonged cold spell blurred with innumerable uncertainties and problematic forecasting issues in the short-term/mesoscale, let alone the sort of longer range discussed on that part of the Netweather forum.

There's some extremely learned folks on there and I'm certainly not going to dismiss any of their viewpoints because (a) history shows that we are all here due to an interest in a rather elastic, unpredictable and all-the-more-fascinating branch of science and they're often correct and ( I'm a marine biologist by original profession with an expertise in shark biogeography, not long-range weather modelling.

So.....as a kindred scientific spirit.......

Please spare a thought for the oft-criticised but hard-working and very clever folks at UKMO Ops Centre and Hadley Centre (and my BBC Weather Centre peers), who bear the brunt of public wrath when forecasts go awry but who receive scant media or public appreciation when they get things right ( = statistically, most of the time).

They, lest us forget, have no luxury of providing non-official / over-hyped / unqualified weather warnings posted on privateer websites; instead, the very opposite: they advise the key UK broadcast media and thus the mass public; and equally consultancy to a raft of organisations from military to civil aviation and sporting events.

When things go wrong, it's very, very public. No hiding behind obscure websites. Far from it. Witness the summer 2009 furore.....

The stakes are high and I can fully attest - as a BBC, not UKMO staffmember - that they care every bit as passionately about getting the weather (and warnings) riight as anyone on this forum, be it in the next 1hr or next 1 month.

Hopefully their accurate forecasting and areal warnings today helps prove the point: while GFS was suggestive of an utterly variant solution and yet is the most publically-accessible and oft-lauded model in many derivatives.

Perhaps (this is an argumentative point) if the UKMO made it's own higher-res products and high-res radar/SFERICS / whatever / widely and freely accessible, we'd see broader support for them on sites such as this, but that's another story of governmental proportions.....!

Meantime, I do get riled at seeing my MO colleagues slated for no good reason on some parts of this site, when - in every sense - they're also weather nuts and good scientists, just as keen to get things right as any one of their critics sniping from the incognito sidelines.

Very well said Ian,

people are always far to fast to blame. BBC/MO have done really well so far this winter, predicting with accuracy the snow in the SE, snow in SC and this snow event.

People also need to realise that a MO warning is simply that and not a sure sign that you will receive those conditions.

[dogs32]

Sill sleeting here

Doesnt look like the temps are gonna budge that much this side of the week.

I wonder what jan and feb has in store for us. BRB im gonna catch a quick flight to FI

Dont worry we cant have another bad Thunderstorm Glos year again can we..lol

anyway plenty of cold and snow to come yet at some point.

I was hoping we would get some heavy snow from these shower's

but heavy sleet instead.

Edited December 29, 2009 by dogs32

[Cymro]

A question for you Ian, As a Beeb forecaster could you please explain to me the unnacurate forecasts for the towns on the website? i personally think their a waste of space with all due respect, For example the forecast for the neares town to me wich is 3 miles away is the forecast for Ammanford rite? but Ammanford forecast is default for Neath abbey? which is right on the coast and about 20 miles away? it seems so unaccurate? and the temps progged are never correct, Another example is Llandovery/Merthyr both being default to the Brecon forecast? to me that makes no sense at all?

[Lynxus]

Dont worry we cant have another bad Thunderstorm Glos year again can we..lol

anyway plenty of cold and snow to come yet at some point.

I was hoping we would get some heavy snow from these shower's

but heavy sleet instead.

What we need is this front to stall and move south again..

Aint gonna happen though.

Saying that, We have some big snow flakes in the rain now..Albeit about to stop lol.

I think ill go watch some tv..

Laters

Edited December 29, 2009 by Lynxus

[dogs32]

What we need is this front to stall and move south again..

Aint gonna happen though.

Saying that, We have some big snow flakes in the rain now..

its over for us I feel until the next time