Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 12

[Mondy]

Does anyone know how much snow the cairngorms have had, i bet it looks amazing up the there, im very jealous

about 120cm of snow which has fallen over the last week or so

http://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/

[lorenzo]

Morning everyone - a crystal clear classic blue skies Winters day here.

Wonder how cold it got in the depths of the early morning?

Edinburgh Airport at -9.2 at 0900 hrs this morning... Brrrrrr...

[Mondy]

Keep up to date with Cairngorms and every other mountain range in Scotland by reading these blogs : http://saisncairngorms.blogspot.com/

[snowy owl]

Morning everyone, stayed up late and was up at 4am checking the snow!! This morning is like a complete winter wonderland, vertical surfaces, everything covered in a very thick blanket of snow.

Will go out shortly and take some pics and see if i can download them.

Must've had at least 4" maybe as much as 6" but will do the proper measurement with the handy ruler shortly.

This cold spell is amazing, i'm now wondering how we'll cope with the forecast snow in the next wee while. In fact we'll be snowed in for sure.

[lorenzo]

Plenty of icicles about today too - hope folk can get some good pics of them..

[Snowplough33]

Wierd, its started snowing here. Lightly but where did that come from??

[Snooz]

Wierd, its started snowing here. Lightly but where did that come from??

It came from up here, we now have a heavier burst going on too, goodness knows just seems to be popping up on the radar

[Highland Snow]

Wierd, its started snowing here. Lightly but where did that come from??

Lookee here Snowplough and you'll see!

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[lorenzo]

Looks like Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire is getting a good hit with snow this morning and showers extending down the east coast to Dundee.

Plenty of activity still out there, I guess any kind of precipitation coming across North sea into that cold air has potential to deliver snow.

[Norrance]

light snow flurries here. Cloudy at -4.1C. Min was -6.2C. Wind light NE.

[Highland Snow]

Wierd, its started snowing here. Lightly but where did that come from??

Reached Perth now Snowplough.

[Snooz]

Looks like Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire is getting a good hit with snow this morning and showers extending down the east coast to Dundee.

Plenty of activity still out there, I guess any kind of precipitation coming across North sea into that cold air has potential to deliver snow.

the first band (the one over Dundee now) was very light, this second band blob has much more big flakes in it, looking at the Sat Pic, it appears to be coming from the N-N/E and the showers are forming on making landfall suggest if it keeps going it won't be lasting for us much longer as that usually delivers a bit more south than us.

I think we will soon need a "when will it NOT snow thread" for Scotland

[lorenzo]

Looking at the temperatures for the next week or so I found this and if someone can help explaining would be appreciated, Jan 11th is confusing.

Huge difference between the operational and mean temperatures.

Still - below freezing until a week on Tuesday !

[Methuselah]

I can't explain that, Lorenzo. But, it does look somewhat odd???

Anyhoo, while it's so quiet, I'll be making a new thread very shortly.

[LadyPakal]

Look here - see that swirl developing right up top of the image?

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=scan&sat=ir&type=loop

Maybe it will roll down the Norwegian coast...

[Methuselah]

And, a linkski...

[Snooz]

Looking at the temperatures for the next week or so I found this and if someone can help explaining would be appreciated, Jan 11th is confusing.

Huge difference between the operational and mean temperatures.

Still - below freezing until a week on Tuesday !

can't explain it, my technical knowledge is nowhere near as good as some on here!

but here goes an interpretation

a cold/mild outlier - your pic is from the 00Z ensembles - it generally started off being on the cold side but ended up being up of the very mild side

TEITS in the model thread has also just posted the ECM ensembles

It shows the same thing, *I think* - I'm trying to learn here, so do tell me if I'm missing obvious stuff!!

TEITS says

I won't use the word outlier but the ECM in its latter stages of the run was way warmer than the mean.

There is no sign on the 6z charts, however Glacier Point in the very technical thread (yes I went there ) also hints at a possible attempt at a breakdown mid-January, so all in all I think the models are probably trying to deal with that.

I suppose the thing we have to do is look for a trend? I know those guys in the know in the model threads have said that once this blocking pattern is here that it's going to be difficult to shift, and all signs are for a repeating reload pattern, but I suppose it's inevitable that it will end and the models will have to show it now and again as they attempt to deal with each reload?

OK that's quite enough pretend technicalities from me , I don't really want to learn all this stuff, it's way too much, but I tend to try and pick up the patterns from the other posters..

[Methuselah]

Closing now...