North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[wysiwyg]

so we've had the analyis of the outlook for the costal regions - what are ppl's thoughts for the Eastern side of region you know maybe in the foothills of the pennines

just asking like lol

I'll stick my neck out and say, based on the current fax output, the only issue for higher ground and more easterly parts of the region is the amount of precipitation associated with the front when it gets to your location

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

so we've had the analyis of the outlook for the costal regions - what are ppl's thoughts for the Eastern side of region you know maybe in the foothills of the pennines

just asking like lol

i think you;ll see some more heavy snow monday night tues morning.That front will be modified by the irish sea but i have looked at all the dews uppers temps etc and i doubt very much it will be margianl where we are.On the coast looks a bit iffy though i have to reluctantly say.

Edited January 3, 2010 by happy days

[HotCuppa]

i think you;ll see some more heavy snow monday night tues morning.That front will be modified by the irish sea but i have looked at all the dews uppers temps etc and i doubt very much it will be margianl where we are.On the coast looks a bit iffy though i have to reluctantly say.

I think the whole thing looks iffy if you ask me.

[meerkat63]

I reckon your min' could be pushing -10c tonight OON. The combination of snow cover, light winds and being in an upland valley, almost perfect for low min'.

I agree.

The minimum here this winter has so far been -8.2c. Tonight will come close to that I would have thought with a snowcover - and others such as OON may well, as you say, see -10.0c or possibly even lower.

[Liam J]

it does not look iffy according to the charts available, however past epxerience tells us to expect the worse for those towards the west who can be influenced by the warmer irish sea.

i caught tomasz sch, live update on news 24 1430 he said proper snow over scotland moving south and another covering of snow over northern england later tomorrow..

and past experience has told me to take the bbc forecast with a pinch of salt

[HotCuppa]

I agree.

The minimum here this winter has so far been -8.2c. Tonight will come close to that I would have thought with a snowcover - and others such as OON may well, as you say, see -10.0c or possibly even lower.

I abolutely love temps like -10C or below. Our temps are now beginning to flatline too.

My Current temp 1.6C

Low min: -0.7C

DP -3.5C

Windchill 1.6C

Wind Dir ENE

Barometer: 1024.3mb Rising Rapidly

Humidity 65%

for comparison

Liverpool Airport 2.9C

Low Min: -3.1C

DP -1.8C

Windchill 2.9C

Wind Dir NE

Barometer: 1024.3mb Rising Rapidly

Humidity 69%

[Terminal Moraine]

I agree.

The minimum here this winter has so far been -8.2c. Tonight will come close to that I would have thought with a snowcover - and others such as OON may well, as you say, see -10.0c or possibly even lower.

The station at Brierlow Bar on the south side of Buxton, a few miles north of me had a min' of -7.5c last night and hasn't been above -3.4c since 0900 today, it's now back to -4.2c. They're also in an ideal location for low min' at 340m a.s.l but also in a shallow valley; -10c could be on the cards for them tonight.

[Snow free zone]

Thanks for the explanation wysiwyg. Temp only just got over zero here today its now at minus 2.4 already.

[meerkat63]

The station at Brierlow Bar on the south side of Buxton, a few miles north of me had a min' of -7.5c last night and hasn't been above -3.4c since 0900 today, it's now back to -4.2c. They're also in an ideal location for low min' at 340m a.s.l but also in a shallow valley; -10c could be on the cards for them tonight.

Buxton must be a really great place to live - or anywhere with that kind of altitude I suppose. Those temperatures do not surprise me and having been up there a few times it can, obviously, be really badly affected by snowfall when conditions are right. I have known Buxton to be completely cut off - particularly during the '80's. I cannot remember when that last happened here.

[HotCuppa]

it does not look iffy according to the charts available, however past epxerience tells us to expect the worse for those towards the west who can be influenced by the warmer irish sea.

i caught tomasz sch, live update on news 24 1430 he said proper snow over scotland moving south and another covering of snow over northern england later tomorrow..

and past experience has told me to take the bbc forecast with a pinch of salt

I think its already past marginal imo..the only folks who will see something are those in the pennine regions, ie rochdale, and south. The event if it even happens will be more easterly (ie other side of manchester and over high ground, right the way down past the peak district, derby and to the extent of the southern most point of the midlands. Liverpool, Blackpool, Preston, Cumbria and all places west will not be in the isotherm but will instead be in a warm sector of air. It's a shame because I was hoping for my kids sake for snow..but if anything this cold spell as been a relatively warm thing..those on high ground got lots of snow, those on lower ground got the same as they have for the past 20 odd years...nothing new and its not going to change because the GFS output is in fantasy land . Still things can and no doubt will change, hopefully for the better

it does not look iffy according to the charts available = its the charts that are iffy, thats what I was referring to. I have lost any little faith I had on the GFS this winter..its been shown to be what it is exactly is...a complete waste of time.

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Solar Cycles]

I think its already past marginal imo..the only folks who will see something are those in the pennine regions, ie rochdale, and south. The event if it even happens will be more easterly (ie other side of manchester and over high ground, right the way down past the peak district, derby and to the extent of the southern most point of the midlands. Liverpool, Blackpool, Preston, Cumbria and all places west will not be in the isotherm but will instead be in a warm sector of air. It's a shame because I was hoping for my kids sake for snow..but if anything this cold spell as been a relatively warm thing..those on high ground got lots of snow, those on lower ground got the same as they have for the past 20 odd years...nothing new and its not going to change because the GFS output is in fantasy land . Still things can and no doubt will change, hopefully for the better

The plus point is, that the beeb have been dismal for our area throughout this cold spell. So with any luck, this warm sector will be out in the Irish sea this time!

[HotCuppa]

The plus point is, that the beeb have been dismal for our area throughout this cold spell. So with any luck, this warm sector will be out in the Irish sea this time!

I really hope you are right...we'll just have to see where it goes in the next 12 or so hours.

[wysiwyg]

I think its already past marginal imo..the only folks who will see something are those in the pennine regions, ie rochdale, and south. The event if it even happens will be more easterly (ie other side of manchester and over high ground, right the way down past the peak district, derby and to the extent of the southern most point of the midlands. Liverpool, Blackpool, Preston, Cumbria and all places west will not be in the isotherm but will instead be in a warm sector of air. It's a shame because I was hoping for my kids sake for snow..but if anything this cold spell as been a relatively warm thing..those on high ground got lots of snow, those on lower ground got the same as they have for the past 20 odd years...nothing new and its not going to change because the GFS output is in fantasy land . Still things can and no doubt will change, hopefully for the better

I have to disagree with that - 8 inches of snow here before christmas @ 74m asl. Hardly high ground Temperatures struggling around the 2-3 degrees max mark by day and hitting mins of -2 to -3 by night. Lying snow from 17th - 28th Dec.

Fax output for midnight monday shows the occlusion tracking through the Irish Sea - anything falling east of the occlusion point will more than likely be snow apart from a very narrow band around coastal areas (2-3km) where intensity will dictate the difference between snow and sleet.

[Liam J]

I have to disagree with that - 8 inches of snow here before christmas @ 74m asl. Hardly high ground Temperatures struggling around the 2-3 degrees max mark by day and hitting mins of -2 to -3 by night. Lying snow from 17th - 28th Dec.

Fax output for midnight monday shows the occlusion tracking through the Irish Sea - anything falling east of the occlusion point will more than likely be snow apart from a very narrow band around coastal areas (2-3km) where intensity will dictate the difference between snow and sleet.

the fax chart shows the mild air staying mainly out to our west, we shall see how the next 24 hours work out.

and hope the warm air and occlusion stay away.

-1.9c now from a high of -1.3c

[HotCuppa]

I have to disagree with that - 8 inches of snow here before christmas @ 74m asl. Hardly high ground Temperatures struggling around the 2-3 degrees max mark by day and hitting mins of -2 to -3 by night. Lying snow from 17th - 28th Dec.

Fax output for midnight monday shows the occlusion tracking through the Irish Sea - anything falling east of the occlusion point will more than likely be snow apart from a very narrow band around coastal areas (2-3km) where intensity will dictate the difference between snow and sleet.

Ah your in chorley, which was a lot further north so you have avoided the dread mild sector off the irish sea and your further inland arent you?...most places north of the region (ie those out towards where you are, rochdale, pennines etc) this is what I meant..even cumbria the higher elevations. Its definately been an elevation and location thing so far. South of the region Mild even at height..just we where extremely unlucky

The north of the region as indeed got the best of the snow while deep down south haha we have gotten 4 inches altogether by 2+ days to christmas day, (on the coasts I would have though it would have been a few mm at most) we still had around an inch left before the heavy rain washed it away on boxing day and the only reason it lasted was because of the 3 ice days we had. (it hasn't what I would called snowed since then)

I really do wish people all the luck in the world and hope that the occ stays way out of our way. I also wish those people on the coasts who want to see some of the white stuff this winter a load of luck you never know...for once this winter the GFS may be right, but lets hope the isotherm increases its footprint to include the whole of the north west.

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[wysiwyg]

Where is your location?

About 5 miles south of Preston - virtually next to the M6. 10 miles inland from the coast just North of Southport if you head due west

the fax chart shows the mild air staying mainly out to our west, we shall see how the next 24 hours work out.

and hope the warm air and occlusion stay away.

-1.9c now from a high of -1.3c

With respect James I think we want the occlusion over us as this is the point where the warmer air has effectively been lifted off the ground by the colder air. Bear in mind that the fronts drawn on the chart represent the conditions at roughly sea level so the killer for snow is effectively the "wedge" of warm air that sits between the warm front and the cold front. Once it becomes occluded it means that the warm moist air has to drop its precipitation through a layer of cold air.

Ah your in chorley, which was a lot further north so you have avoided the dread mild sector off the irish sea and your further inland arent you?...most places north of the region (ie those out towards where you are, rochdale, pennines etc) this is what I meant..even cumbria the higher elevations. Its definately been an elevation and location thing so far. South of the region Mild even at height..just we where extremely unlucky

The north of the region as indeed got the best of the snow while deep down south haha we have gotten 4 inches altogether by 2+ days to christmas day, we still had around an inch left before the heavy rain washed it away on boxing day (it hasn't what I would called snowed since then)

Yeah I think I am on the border for marginality and the cold spell before christmas just nudged the right side for my area for snow, also had a fair bit of luck in terms of where the streamers tracked in that some areas to the north and south of us saw much less snow.

[wysiwyg]

Having posted that fax chart I am anticipating the next update for 00z on Tuesday to forecast this event as purely a cold front (based on the extended outlook on the countryfile forecast) - a lot can change even at <48hrs but looking more and more promising for some snow further west on Tuesday.

[HotCuppa]

About 5 miles south of Preston - virtually next to the M6. 10 miles inland from the coast just North of Southport if you head due west

With respect James I think we want the occlusion over us as this is the point where the warmer air has effectively been lifted off the ground by the colder air. Bear in mind that the fronts drawn on the chart represent the conditions at roughly sea level so the killer for snow is effectively the "wedge" of warm air that sits between the warm front and the cold front. Once it becomes occluded it means that the warm moist air has to drop its precipitation through a layer of cold air.

Yeah I think I am on the border for marginality and the cold spell before christmas just nudged the right side for my area for snow, also had a fair bit of luck in terms of where the streamers tracked in that some areas to the north and south of us saw much less snow.

Interestingly the isotherm footprint now covers the south of the region for wednesday, and a much bigger footprint for the northwest as a whole. If the GFS is to be believed the synoptics now look a lot more healthier than they did before. Looks like places such as southport and formby are going to miss any snow that falls..but by wednesday the chance for the coast slightly increases, while further inland, north and south of the region is looking primed for a good possible snow event. However we need to keep an eye on out west now..and hope everything falls into place. Probably the best crack we are likely to have until feb if you ask me. Thats if feb is progged to be cold or not.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/10010506_0312.gif

Thats the MAF model,its shows snow for all of the NW,the ukmeto use this model i believe,maybe why the forecast i just watched shows no rain in the NW and only mentioned rain in the midlands.

thats todays updated 12z run i might add.

Edited January 3, 2010 by happy days

[HotCuppa]

http://expert.weathe...010506_0312.gif

Thats the MAF model,its shows snow for all of the NW,the ukmeto use this model i believe,maybe why the forecast i just watched shows no rain in the NW and only mentioned rain in the midlands.

thats todays updated 12z run i might add.

I dont like that rain band to the south of the region..that seems to include runcorn in its rain footprint..just hope it doesnt reach us over the mersey

overall tuesday, wednesday and thursday do look rather interesting for some snow

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[NW_Blackburn]

We had a light snow shower which turned quite heavy for a time for about 45mins/1hour this afternoon at about 1pm but it put another layer of snow on top of the snow/ice which was already down from yesterday but had nothing since then. Anything for tonight or is it going to be a clear night tonight?

Cheers.

[HotCuppa]

We had a light snow shower which turned quite heavy for a time for about 45mins/1hour this afternoon at about 1pm but it put another layer of snow on top of the snow/ice which was already down from yesterday but had nothing since then. Anything for tonight or is it going to be a clear night tonight?

Cheers.

should be clear tonght, with temps dropping off significantly..i should imagine you will probably end up with -7 or -8 especially with snow and ice cover :lol:

[karyo]

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/10010506_0312.gif

Thats the MAF model,its shows snow for all of the NW,the ukmeto use this model i believe,maybe why the forecast i just watched shows no rain in the NW and only mentioned rain in the midlands.

thats todays updated 12z run i might add.

This chart looks promising - thanks for posting it!

The 12z gfs shows mainly light precipitation from the cold front on Tuesday morning. However, it then shows a fair few snow showers crossing the Pennines during the latter part of Tuesday and Wednesday in a cold northeasterly wind!

Karyo

[Spurry]

Just got back from a great day out with my son on a snow hunt..we drove over (or rather around as the road was closed due to ice) Winter Hill to the outskirts of Blackburn/Darwen where we found plenty of snow (5-6 cms) and -2c temps all day(it even snowed for most of the time we were there,light to moderate at times), we had a good couple of hours sledging and generally messing about..when we left at 3pmish it was -3c ,it was amazing once we got back over Winter Hill and entered the snowfree Borough of Wigan the temps rose to +1c :lol: , but now the sun has set the temp has already dropped away to a staggering -3c and it's only 4.20pm.

I really hope we get a decent dumping this week , but if we don't i'll console myself with another trip over the Hill next weekend for fun in the snow...if i can find out how to post Photo's i'll put some on here later.

Edited January 3, 2010 by Spurry

[HotCuppa]

Jma later tonight has under -10 upper air in the region, then it does it again on wednesday in a pretty narrow band that extend from southern western scotland to south liverpool, with possibly greater manchester on its max eastern side, probably the outskirts of manchester is probably its max east. otherwise its -5 upper air

JMA also has us under the 0C mark upto around 196 hours (which is when the models seem to think we'll finish the coldspell and enter milder conditions.

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa