North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[les1234]

Morning all nice clear dry frosty morning here temp is -3.0c ATM ,off up winter hill for a walk this morning with 8 giant breed newfoundland dogs sorry in advance to anyone we meet on the way.

[Liam J]

GM James

Not seen the fax charts yet are we still expecting those troughs to work south Tues/Wed?

C.S

morning, yes i believe that a cold front will be sinking south over monday night into tuesday morning, with even colder air behind it.

a band of showery snow will move south over our region, amounts maybe up to 5cm or more over the hills, depending on the intensity...

the good thing is that we should should be a long way from marginal, with the predicted synoptics, no -5 warm sectors creating the marginal situations we have had, with -8 uppers over us, with -11 or -12 uppers next week also

Edited January 3, 2010 by james12

[cheshire snow]

morning, yes i believe that a cold front will be sinking south over monday night into tuesday morning, with even colder air behind it.

a band of showery snow will move south over our region, amounts maybe up to 5cm or more over the hills, depending on the intensity...

the good thing is that we should should be a long way from marginal, with the predicted synoptics, no -5 warm sectors creating the marginal situations we have had, with -8 uppers over us, with -11 or -12 uppers next week also

James

Thanks for the info and like you say lets hope that word marginal becomes a thing of the past for this

Week at least

C.S

[Interitus]

morning, yes i believe that a cold front will be sinking south over monday night into tuesday morning, with even colder air behind it.

a band of showery snow will move south over our region, amounts maybe up to 5cm or more over the hills, depending on the intensity...

the good thing is that we should should be a long way from marginal, with the predicted synoptics, no -5 warm sectors creating the marginal situations we have had, with -8 uppers over us, with -11 or -12 uppers next week also

Can't see any -12 850mb from the models at the moment. With the trough on Monday night/Tuesday morning it is at or above -7 so yes, less marginal, but ahead of it there is a nw feed off the Irish sea once again so southern coastal areas of the region again may have sleet again. Basically where it has been marginal so far it may be again.

[Liam J]

Can't see any -12 850mb from the models at the moment. With the trough on Monday night/Tuesday morning it is at or above -7 so yes, less marginal, but ahead of it there is a nw feed off the Irish sea once again so southern coastal areas of the region again may have sleet again. Basically where it has been marginal so far it may be again.

850's -7 or -8 and no rise as the trough moves over, also with DP's of -2 over the south of the area and -5 over cumbria i think you will agree far less marginal indeed, wednesday showing -10 to -11 850's on the 6z gfs rolling out now and wednesday ppn chart showing band of snow arching across from the east, after tuesdays cold front moves south.

Edited January 3, 2010 by james12

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Dipped to -8.4 earlier on. Now -4.8C and snowing lightly....very lightly.

[trickydicky]

850's -7 or -8 and no rise as the trough moves over, also with DP's of -2 over the south of the area and -5 over cumbria i think you will agree far less marginal indeed, wednesday showing -10 to -11 850's on the 6z gfs rolling out now and wednesday ppn chart showing band of snow arching across from the east, after tuesdays cold frony moves south.

BBC Weather this morning shed no light on this front whatsoever. First frame they had showed it looking strong over Sutherland approaching Inverness, the next frame had it looking much weaker over East Anglia. So its anyones guess if it will have much punch in it when it reaches us.

[Liam J]

tuesday ppn chart according to gfs, and wednesdays

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I look forward to the day the BBC national weather mentions a specific area of, say, Cumbria or Northumberland on one of their forecasts, like they did for 'East Kent' this morning.

[Liam J]

I look forward to the day the BBC national weather mentions a specific area of, say, Cumbria or Northumberland on one of their forecasts, like they did for 'East Kent' this morning.

yes and i find the bbc forecasts sometimes can be so wrong with graphics showing, and on many of the recent snowfall events they never forecasted that accurately, in some situations ive seen them change there graphics to snow only when it is falling and not before

[karyo]

I look forward to the day the BBC national weather mentions a specific area of, say, Cumbria or Northumberland on one of their forecasts, like they did for 'East Kent' this morning.

That will never happen! Or at least as unlikely as Steve Murr discussing snow chances in the model discussion thread for anywhere else than southeast!

Tuesday morning looks our best chance for snow thanks to the cold front moving south. At the moment it looks like giving a spell of moderate snowfall but there is always a chance to brake up before it get's here (it happened with the front on the 20th Dec). On Wednesday we should see some snow showers crossing the Pennines but very hit and miss.

The rest of the week is looking mainly dry at present.

Karyo

Edited January 3, 2010 by karyo

[Liam J]

temp still @ -4c DP -6c im not expecting to rise above 0c today poss even -1c as only 4/5 hours until the cooling will take effect agian and bring an even colder night...

[Interitus]

!

Tuesday morning looks our best chance for snow thanks to the cold front moving south. At the moment it looks like giving a spell of moderate snowfall but there is always a chance to brake up before it get's here (it happened with the front on the 20th Dec). On Wednesday we should see some snow showers crossing the Pennines but very hit and miss.

The rest of the week is looking mainly dry at present.

Karyo

That looks about right, GFS rainfall totals on Tuesday are between 1-3mm so 1-3cm snow. After that easterly showers may produce some, but there's not much detail how organised they will be.

[HotCuppa]

temp still @ -4c DP -6c im not expecting to rise above 0c today poss even -1c as only 4/5 hours until the cooling will take effect agian and bring an even colder night...

James12 i think its more IMBY for your area to be honest.

Temps are already rising pretty fast in this part of the world.

Temp 1.2C max overnight 0.3C not even hit freezing though because of high humidity we have a coat of frost which kind of belies the fact we remained above freezing all night.

High pressure in charge and so is the irish sea it seems lol

id also like to add we have a mild SE wind which isnt helping matters at all...its either wsw, sw or for half an hour ne, then veering and staying in the SE, which probably explains why we didnt hit freezing at all.

That looks about right, GFS rainfall totals on Tuesday are between 1-3mm so 1-3cm snow. After that easterly showers may produce some, but there's not much detail how organised they will be.

yeah i love those fantasy charts because that is all you'll find from them..hope I am proved wrong.

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Liam J]

James12 i think its more IMBY for your area to be honest.

Temps are already rising pretty fast in this part of the world.

Temp 1.2C max overnight 0.3C not even hit freezing though because of high humidity we have a coat of frost which kind of belies the fact we remained above freezing all night.

High pressure in charge and so is the irish sea it seems lol

id also like to add we have a mild SE wind which isnt helping matters at all...its either wsw, sw or for half an hour ne, then veering and staying in the SE, which probably explains why we didnt hit freezing at all.

yeah i love those fantasy charts because that is all you'll find from them..hope I am proved wrong.

you must be the warmest place in nw england, even blackpool airport recorded -3c, and walney island -2c the air temp would have to reach 0c if you have frost settled, is it on the cars and roof tops?

[Backtrack]

morning, yes i believe that a cold front will be sinking south over monday night into tuesday morning, with even colder air behind it.

a band of showery snow will move south over our region, amounts maybe up to 5cm or more over the hills, depending on the intensity...

the good thing is that we should should be a long way from marginal, with the predicted synoptics, no -5 warm sectors creating the marginal situations we have had, with -8 uppers over us, with -11 or -12 uppers next week also

If you say it isnt margianal then why do the BBC forecast sleet for the majority of tuesday and wednesday sunny?

-1.2c after a low of -2.3c.

[Shaun L]

you must be the warmest place in nw england, even blackpool airport recorded -3c, and walney island -2c the air temp would have to reach 0c if you have frost settled, is it on the cars and roof tops?

I would be checking that weather station if you only got to 0.3. On the met office observations site even Crosby got to -4.5c and we were still below freezing on the wirral recently.

Edit - We have just reached 0c.

Edited January 3, 2010 by shaun l

[Liam J]

If you say it isnt margianal then why do the BBC forecast sleet for the majority of tuesday and wednesday sunny?

-1.2c after a low of -2.3c.

due to the set up and synoptics, it should be alot further away from marginal than the last few weeks have been.

you will be very unlucky to see rain over the next week, with upper -7 to -9 and later this week -9 to -11

anything can happen, but everything is right for snow, and if it rains than what can you do about it...

and i would not pay much attention to the bbc, as sometimes there forecasts go against what all the models show!

Edited January 3, 2010 by james12

[snowingtequila]

I dont get this they say its going to get really cold but here in Macclesfield its 0c at the Moment and i though it would be much lower then that so does that mean the cold air has not arrived here yet and if not when will we see the temps get much lower?

How are youi measuring your temperature, it was 0 with me at 6 in the evening and I am only a little out of the town. Lovely thick covering of snow as well. -4 when I left my house this morning at 7am. the roads were awful last nighet as well, with a still thick covering of snow. It also started top drift late last night when the wind got up.

Edited January 3, 2010 by snowingtequila

[Weather-history]

I would be checking that weather station if you only got to 0.3. On the met office observations site even Crosby got to -4.5c and we were still below freezing on the wirral recently.

Yes, it is becoming increasingly more likely that there is a problem with the station as even Rhyl got down to -2C.

[V for Very Cold]

beautiful clear morning - not verntured outside but there is not a cloud in the sky. Bet it is biting cold outside. Had some minor flurries last night only making about 3-4mm of covering, just enough to cover the side roads completely

waking up now and finding the forecst ahead - is there going to be a sweepstake on the total snow fall for the next week? lol

[HotCuppa]

If you say it isnt margianal then why do the BBC forecast sleet for the majority of tuesday and wednesday sunny?

-1.2c after a low of -2.3c.

Very likely because the GFS are nothing short of fantasizing at the moment. I think we'll need to see what happens during Monday to see if there is to be any trough..the exact same thing was said about yesterday, the trough weakened.

We had an hoar frost the temp clacked 0.3C and it formed.. my friend about 5 miles down the road reported an airfrost..ground above freezing.

Yes, it is becoming increasingly more likely that there is a problem with the station as even Rhyl got down to -2C.

I think its extremely important to point out I am nowhere near crosby..I dont get crosby's weather in this part of halton (border of liverpool). Crosby is on the coast...I am the other extreme side of liverpool..its actually technically halton.

I use a very expensive very accurate weather station that I have maintained every 4 or so months to ensure everything is in tip top condition.

Crosby's weather is as far removed and different to here..than say london is when its snowing down there. The only thing they have in common is the irish sea, and crosby is on low ground I am over 300ft.

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[k19]

bbc says nothing over the next few days. gfs says everything. who is right?

[Liam J]

Very likely because the GFS are nothing short of fantasizing at the moment. I think we'll need to see what happens during Monday to see if there is to be any trough..the exact same thing was said about yesterday, the trough weakened.

We had an hoar frost the temp clacked 0.3C and it formed.. my friend about 5 miles down the road reported an airfrost..ground above freezing.

I think its extremely important to point out I am nowhere near crosby..I dont get crosby's weather in this part of halton (border of liverpool). Crosby is on the coast...I am the other extreme side of liverpool..its actually technically halton.

I use a very expensive very accurate weather station that I have maintained every 4 or so months to ensure everything is in tip top condition.

Crosby's weather is as far removed and different to here..than say london is when its snowing down there. The only thing they have in common is the irish sea, and crosby is on low ground I am over 300ft.

its very strange that places by the sea and on low ground record lower temps than you.

there must be some explanation for your warming

[HotCuppa]

bbc says nothing over the next few days. gfs says everything. who is right?

See what happens during tomorrow...hopefully the GFS will be right this time around.

Just like to add my temp has dropped to -0.8C in a very short period of time maybe a sign of things to come. dp is now down to -3.3C

its very strange that places by the sea and on low ground record lower temps than you.

there must be some explanation for your warming

Its very likely estuary effect..remember the winds have been of the se and sw variety (both warm sources of air, add to this the modifying temperature of the river mersey and you can see how it can quickly modify the temps even upto 300ft, remember also we where perhaps the warmest place in the northwest yesterday, it took the entire evening for temps to sink close to zero.) all night long and it doesn't take much to modify the temps in this small area of the world lol

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa