North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[cheshire snow]

Is it me or is there alot of negativity in our thread ATM

FWIW i think this thread is by far the best thread going and i really enjoy contributing and reading

Other peoples coments,however over the last few days petty arguments seem to be cropping up

With reference to this weeks cold spell

As for yesterday if anyone read JH Blog they would have known that JH stated that yesterdays trough

Was only going to deliver for the more elevated areas and Rain/Sleet for lower ground and nearer the

Coast,so why people got touchy when this infact happened is beyond me

With reference to Tues/Wed Trough which has now been showing by the GFS for the last few days

I cannot see anything marginal at all with uppers of -7 expected and DP below freezing that to me says

Snow even out to the coast,also of note following this trough the uppers are predicted to drop even further

One more point i have been following this forum for over 5years now and i have never seen a set up

Like been shown ATM believe me this is going to deliver some serious cold to the UK as a whole

Finally as for BBC forecast i would totaly ignore them,they are not going to forecast Snow 48hrs ahead

Until they are certain,dont be surprised to see a weather warning for NW England in the next 24-36 hrs

Rant over

Come on lets be positive the cold is getting inplace the Snow will follow........

C.S

[Interitus]

Here is an example of how the proximity of warm north Atlantic and Irish sea makes things marginal in these setups.

This is the upper air sounding from Castor Bay, northern Ireland for 00z 02/01/10 i.e. before yesterday's snow/rain.

The 850mb temp is -5.7, the 1000 hPa to 500 hPa thickness: 5212.00 - 521.2dm.

1000-850 is 1296m. Dewpoint is sub-zero throughout.

All these raw figures point to the likelyhood of snow, and at the surface with a temperature of -2.3 one might expect it.

But looking at the details you can see a substantial wedge of above freezing temperatures below the true freezing level with an inversion at the ground. Shortly after this sounding Belfast reported freezing rain, and later on the main band had some snow but predominantly rain with settling snow for higher ground and further inland to the south.

--------------------------------------------------------

PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT

hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot

--------------------------------------------------------

1013.0 15 -2.3 -3.1 94 3.02 205 3

1011.0 31 -2.1 -4.2 86 2.78 217 3

1008.0 54 -1.7 -2.8 92 3.10 235 4

1004.0 86 -0.3 -1.4 92 3.45 259 5

1000.0 118 0.2 -1.0 92 3.57 283 6

998.0 134 0.3 -0.8 92 3.62 295 6

995.0 158 0.4 -0.6 93 3.70 299 7

979.0 289 2.4 -1.1 78 3.62 320 11

956.0 480 1.0 -2.7 76 3.30 350 18

943.0 591 0.2 -3.6 76 3.12 350 17

935.0 659 0.0 -7.0 59 2.43 350 16

928.0 719 -0.1 -8.1 55 2.25 350 15

925.0 745 -0.3 -8.3 55 2.22 350 15

909.0 884 -1.5 -9.5 54 2.05 355 16

904.0 928 -1.9 -9.9 54 2.00 354 15

895.0 1008 -2.7 -8.7 63 2.22 351 14

875.0 1186 -4.5 -9.5 68 2.13 345 11

873.0 1204 -4.7 -9.6 69 2.12 344 11

861.0 1313 -5.2 -11.7 60 1.82 335 12

850.0 1414 -5.7 -13.7 53 1.57 340 13

edits - failed formatting, damn lack of whitespace!

Edited January 3, 2010 by Interitus

[HotCuppa]

Is it me or is there alot of negativity in our thread ATM

FWIW i think this thread is by far the best thread going and i really enjoy contributing and reading

Other peoples coments,however over the last few days petty arguments seem to be cropping up

With reference to this weeks cold spell

As for yesterday if anyone read JH Blog they would have known that JH stated that yesterdays trough

Was only going to deliver for the more elevated areas and Rain/Sleet for lower ground and nearer the

Coast,so why people got touchy when this infact happened is beyond me

With reference to Tues/Wed Trough which has now been showing by the GFS for the last few days

I cannot see anything marginal at all with uppers of -7 expected and DP below freezing that to me says

Snow even out to the coast,also of note following this trough the uppers are predicted to drop even further

One more point i have been following this forum for over 5years now and i have never seen a set up

Like been shown ATM believe me this is going to deliver some serious cold to the UK as a whole

Finally as for BBC forecast i would totaly ignore them,they are not going to forecast Snow 48hrs ahead

Until they are certain,dont be surprised to see a weather warning for NW England in the next 24-36 hrs

Rant over

Come on lets be positive the cold is getting inplace the Snow will follow........

C.S

There is something called ramping up chances when they likely don't exist. People have got touchy because people can't seem to see the obvious in regards how bad the GFS then they carry on as if its gospel. The problem with doing this is that its going to annoy a lot of people very quickly when it doesn't deliver. Just use common sense and a practical method for forecasting instead of reliance on the GFS which is like a loo wall someone scratches on lol

and as for the comment JH made in his blog, we'd (in an earlier thread) already talked about this several days before he even posted.

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Backtrack]

See what happens during tomorrow...hopefully the GFS will be right this time around.

Just like to add my temp has dropped to -0.8C in a very short period of time maybe a sign of things to come. dp is now down to -3.3C

Its very likely estuary effect..remember the winds have been of the se and sw variety (both warm sources of air, add to this the modifying temperature of the river mersey and you can see how it can quickly modify the temps even upto 300ft, remember also we where perhaps the warmest place in the northwest yesterday, it took the entire evening for temps to sink close to zero.) all night long and it doesn't take much to modify the temps in this small area of the world lol

I'm nearer the Mersey than you, and I recorded a -2.3c last night. Still only -0.3c now!

[HotCuppa]

Here is an example of how the proximity of warm north Atlantic and Irish sea makes things marginal in these setups.

This is the upper air sounding from Castor Bay, northern Ireland for 00z 02/01/10 i.e. before yesterday's snow/rain.

The 850mb temp is -5.7, the 1000 hPa to 500 hPa thickness: 5212.00 - 521.2dm.

1000-850 is 1296m

All these raw figures point to the likelyhood of snow, and at the surface with a temperature of -2.3 one might expect it.

But looking at the details you can see a substantial wedge of above freezing temperatures below the true freezing level with an inversion at the ground. Shortly after this sounding Belfast reported freezing rain, and later on the main band had some snow but predominantly rain with settling snow for higher ground and further inland to the south.

thanks Interitus excellent explanation of just how marginal even suspect low temps can be around the atlantic and irish sea

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

There is something called ramping up chances when they likely don't exist. People have got touchy because people can't seem to see the obvious in regards how bad the GFS then they carry on as if its gospel. The problem with doing this is that its going to annoy a lot of people very quickly when it doesn't deliver. Just use common sense and a practical method for forecasting instead of reliance on the GFS which is like a loo wall someone scratches on lol

and as for the comment JH made in his blog, we'd already talked about this several days before he even posted.

HC

In that case if the METO come on this evening and forecast Snow for NW England on Tues would people

Then take that as gospel?

C.S

[HotCuppa]

I'm nearer the Mersey than you, and I recorded a -2.3c last night. Still only -0.3c now!

You also have protection from the welsh mountains and are not the wrong side of the mersey...the winds where se and sw..the mersey would not have affected you at all, infact if anything you had quite a bit of protection from the warmer air.

HC

In that case if the METO come on this evening and forecast Snow for NW England on Tues would people

Then take that as gospel?

C.S

Id be wary if Meto said anything, coz lets face it they havent really been that accurate themselves lol

Its like saying that we are guaranteed a trough to arrive, we arent guaranteed anything of the sort. At the end of the day I want it to snow as much as you do and I am only offering up my own explanation of why certain people have got touchy. I think that this is more to do with opposing views rather than people getting touchy or petty arguments. I haven't seen so much as a single argument to be perfectly honest, just opposing views which because thats the nature of this forum is highly encouraged if you believe with conviction what you say.

One way or the other we manage to call it right with regards the weather time and again even if it does from time to time go pear shaped thats the fun of forecasting hehe

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Solar Cycles]

Oh no not the dreaded mild sector for the NW again! Well according to the weather for the week ahead on the beeb, there will be! I think many on here will give up on this cold spell, if they don't get any decent snow this week!

Edited January 3, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[Interitus]

Country Tracks weather hinted at marginal situation for us on Tuesday. Then potentially we miss out big time later in the week. Same old, same old.

[Liam J]

charts for the time ppn is due to arrive early hours of tuesday. air temps at the surface around 0 to -2

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Hot Cuppa, what equipment do you use, and where is it located in relation to buildings etc?

[Liam J]

charts for the time ppn is due to arrive early hours of tuesday. air temps at the surface around 0 to -2

sorry wrong 500 dam chart here is the correct one

[HotCuppa]

Hot Cuppa, what equipment do you use, and where is it located in relation to buildings etc?

Wireless Vantage Pro2 Plus with 24-Hr Fan Aspirated Radiation Shield, I also use other measuring monitors elsewhere at the foot of the garden, such as leaf moisture and soil moisture monitors.

I live in a rural area at just over 300ft (not the highest to be sure). The station and other monitoring devices are nowhere near the house or any other place that has an heat source apart from the environment.

Pretty good setup, which I have someone come out to give it a once over ever 3 or 4 months.

Edited January 3, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Weather-history]

Oh no not the dreaded mild sector for the NW again! Well according to the weather for the week ahead on the beeb, there will be!

Actually, he was uncertain with this. He was going off current output and made a point of this by saying "at this stage"

[HotCuppa]

James the key image there was the isotherm..its not 0 over the northwest, its over the midlands and part of the south, the other 0 degree is over scotland like others have said unless the isotherm starts playing ball, we are well and truly the wrong side of marginal.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Wireless Vantage Pro2 Plus with 24-Hr Fan Aspirated Radiation Shield, I also use other measuring monitors elsewhere at the foot of the garden, such as leaf moisture and soil moisture monitors.

I live in a rural area at just over 300ft (not the highest to be sure). The station and other monitoring devices are nowhere near the house or any other place that has an heat source apart from the environment.

Pretty good setup, which I have someone come out to give it a once over ever 3 or 4 months.

Yeah - perfect setup. Very similar to mine, except I haven't bothered with the fan aspirated thingy. I was envisaging a £2.99 thermometer on a south facing wall next to the boiler outlet!

You clearly are just cursed it would seem.

Currently -2.0C here.

[HotCuppa]

Yeah - perfect setup. Very similar to mine, except I haven't bothered with the fan aspirated thingy. I was envisaging a £2.99 thermometer on a south facing wall next to the boiler outlet!

You clearly are just cursed it would seem.

Currently -2.0C here.

indeed lol

[snowingtequila]

James the key image there was the isotherm..its not 0 over the northwest, its over the midlands and part of the south, the other 0 degree is over scotland like others have said unless the isotherm starts playing ball, we are well and truly the wrong side of marginal.

looking at that I think I am just in the 0 isotherm! Look forewward to more snow then! Looking great outside. I think this is a great cold spell myself. I know it is a bit varied around the region an maybe I am a favoured spot but I am loving it ven if the snow is not as severe as I would like the snow was very heavy yesterday and a joy to watch.

[Interitus]

sorry wrong 500 dam chart here is the correct one

Don't really need the 500, look at the 850 which shows not a dead cert and then look at the wind vectors ahead of the trough feeding low level warmth off the Irish Sea. May not be significant for your part of Cumbria, but may well be further south for lowland Lancashire, Merseyside and Cheshire. Further east better once again.

[HotCuppa]

looking at that I think I am just in the 0 isotherm! Look forewward to more snow then! Looking great outside. I think this is a great cold spell myself. I know it is a bit varied around the region an maybe I am a favoured spot but I am loving it ven if the snow is not as severe as I would like the snow was very heavy yesterday and a joy to watch.

The isotherm is pretty much to the far east of the region, around the pennines and and south. Think we need to watch this, to see if there is any variation over the next few runs. Would be really nice if the cursed areas of the mersey got something too. To be honest I am not fussed, it can be warm or cold, Id just like my children to see something called snow they can play in before they grow up like I had. These sorts of situations that have developed and let us down only come around for us once every 20/30 years if that..so here is hoping for plenty of snow for all in the region over the next 4 or 5 days if the cold can hold on that long!

[Solar Cycles]

Actually, he was uncertain with this. He was going off current output and made a point of this by saying "at this stage"

Just viewed it again Mr Data, and your correct he did. But it will be sods law, that we will again be on the wrong side of marginal for snow for many! For the rest of the week, even more uncertainty. The SE looks like getting hammered, towards the end of the week!

[HotCuppa]

Just viewed it again Mr Data, and your correct he did. But it will be sods law, that we will again be on the wrong side of marginal for snow for many! For the rest of the week, even more uncertainty. The SE looks like getting hammered, towards the end of the week!

I am quite used to seeing that these days...scotland battered, ne england battered, south east england battered even parts of our region battered...but thanks to the mild and tropical atlantic and irish sea all we have seen since the last week before christmas is nothing but plenty of wet sleet and rain..infact surprised to see no flood warnings out the amount we had the other day lol

[HotCuppa]

Well we have seen two troughs come down from the North over the last couple of weeks running into cold air and the situations both times became far more marginal than I thought. Places in West Cheshire were quickly up to between 4 and 5C yesterday morning and that it is little alarming when we consider what might happend on Tuesday. But I would think anyway that the bulk of the PPN will be on the Eastern side of the front.

Indeed, we hit 5.7C here yesterday morning..and last night we where still stuck in a sw airflow that switched to the se which seemed to keep my temps up but elsewhere where the airflow was from a ne temps plummeted.

[martinj2]

Is it me or is there alot of negativity in our thread ATM

FWIW i think this thread is by far the best thread going and i really enjoy contributing and reading

Other peoples coments,however over the last few days petty arguments seem to be cropping up

With reference to this weeks cold spell

As for yesterday if anyone read JH Blog they would have known that JH stated that yesterdays trough

Was only going to deliver for the more elevated areas and Rain/Sleet for lower ground and nearer the

Coast,so why people got touchy when this infact happened is beyond me

With reference to Tues/Wed Trough which has now been showing by the GFS for the last few days

I cannot see anything marginal at all with uppers of -7 expected and DP below freezing that to me says

Snow even out to the coast,also of note following this trough the uppers are predicted to drop even further

One more point i have been following this forum for over 5years now and i have never seen a set up

Like been shown ATM believe me this is going to deliver some serious cold to the UK as a whole

Finally as for BBC forecast i would totaly ignore them,they are not going to forecast Snow 48hrs ahead

Until they are certain,dont be surprised to see a weather warning for NW England in the next 24-36 hrs

Rant over

Come on lets be positive the cold is getting inplace the Snow will follow........

C.S

just interested.....why do all your newlines start with a capital letter?

[Liam J]

-2c now slowly rising 2 hours and it will start to cool.

we are all doomed then with warm air off the sea yet again and rain showers, and yet freezing cold at night iwht ice

our only hope i think is the easterly driving showers over here later in the week. with no influance of westerly air off the sea

Edited January 3, 2010 by james12