General Model Output Discussion

[Serendipity]

Am liking this run so far as it increases chances for the snow starved s/w midlands I think... intersting to see how the week progresses...

[Ben_Cambs]

Am liking this run so far as it increases chances for the snow starved s/w midlands I think... intersting to see how the week progresses...

You will want the LP to track further west, then that will increase your chances of snowfall from Showers from the North Sea. Run looks V. Good so far

[fear sneachta]

As someone who lives properly in the west, can you do me and us all a favour and take off your parochial spectacles? Thanks! You don't speak for 'the West' thanks. We've had a covering of snow here in my part of north Devon, some remarkable ice conditions, and some very cold nights. If -5.4C near me in Exeter doesn't constitute a cold night by west country standards then you may be comparing this with western Canada rather than western England. There have been a succession of very cold nights in this part. -6.3C in Yeolviton the previous night

I'm just back from a 9m run and it's bitterly, bitterly, cold with a stinging wind. It's 0C. Even with a slight rise over the next hour or so this will be an ice day in this part of north Devon (mean below freezing). That's properly cold and anyone suggestion otherwise is talking arrant nonsense.

I repeat: patience. The synoptics on the model outputs are fabulous, and some of those who are still complaining are going to have fallen as silent as the snow by the end of the week.

Sorry to be off-topic, but you say you went for a nine-mile run!!! Wow, that's very impressive, especially in this weather!

As for the models, I do hope all parts of the UK & Ireland see some snow during this coming week and that it doesn't remain dry.

The high forecast for next weekend would keep things bone dry if it were to sit there. I also hope it gets shunted west, well west.

Or another fun scenario for those in Ireland, would be that the high drifts east, coaxing in an Atlantic Low, only to shunt it all westwards again and leaving us with a dumping of snow!

Edited January 3, 2010 by fear sneachta

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 06z didnt agree with next Friday, LP was in Northern/Central France. Thats one of things im looking for, LP to be further North and West

[cooling climate]

The 12z GFS is a snow lovers dream for E/Anglia, the south Midlands, central southern and southeast

England on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[Optimus Prime]

GFS 06z didnt agree with next Friday, LP was in Northern/Central France. Thats one of things im looking for, LP to be further North and West

If your referring to the countryfile forecast, maybe Tomaz was referring to more convective potential rather then frontal activity?

[Neilsouth]

The 12z GFS is a snow lovers dream for E/Anglia, the south Midlands, central southern and southeast

England on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Would the center of the low not kill off the showers? , or is it not like the other snow spell it's a convective low

[kold weather]

Stunning 48-72hrs charts for a big chunk of England!

GFS once again develops a low pressure system on the tail end of the front, another front comes in and pivots over the country before exiting the SE late Wednesday...

[snowking]

GFS 06z didnt agree with next Friday, LP was in Northern/Central France. Thats one of things im looking for, LP to be further North and West

Things look a little further NW on this run I must say....the shortwave around T+90 now comes in through the wash rather than the thames estuary

SK

[Ben_Cambs]

If your referring to the countryfile forecast, maybe Tomaz was referring to more convective potential rather then frontal activity?

Looking at that again, Yep there should be more convective activity on Friday according to these charts, probably merging showers into longer spells of snow

[fromey]

not far from west country then ?

looking at the precip charts it covers us for some time!!

need to see the ecm and met first to see if they agree

fromey

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

We're getting erosion of the cold pool from the low over the Med / Eastern Europe.

IMBY there isn't yet a strong likelihood of heavy snow (no Easterly) and because I'm not interested in another dusting this projected downgrading of the cold is a worry.

Not just this run either - on the 06z the 528 Dam was lost by T150.

Edited January 3, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[tinybill]

Looking at that again, Yep there should be more convective activity on Friday according to these charts, probably merging showers into longer spells of snow

well looking at the models for this week plus i just seen the country file Link from this morning i can say is that their going to be some terrible conditions coming for the UK this week i have never seem weather pattens like this in years

each model you see are sticking to their guns all i can is be safe and keep an eye on the old people this week

[johnholmes]

well looking at the models for this week plus i just seen the country file Link from this morning i can say is that their going to be some terrible conditions coming for the UK this week i have never seem weather pattens like this in years

each model you see are sticking to their guns all i can is be safe and keep an eye on the old people this week

very true and yes unless all the models have got some kind of pc virus then a very sharp taste of olden winters is about to visit those not already so affected

[weather eater]

Friday is looking an interesting day, it would not take much to change Friday’s snow crossing the SE and exiting to France, to it being pushed further into central England and the SW.

[cooling climate]

This really is a crazy cold and snowy run especially for the midlands south and east but not

exclusively so.

I would like to bank this run now please.

[Eugene]

We're getting erosion of the cold pool from the low over the Med / Eastern Europe.

Yes the cold is getting eroded on GFS 12Z for thursday and friday, only -1C/-2C maxs for inland areas of england and -7C wed night, nice erosion there :lol:

[kold weather]

AFT....I take it your ignoring every model that once again predicts snowfall for our region then?

Your right in that the cold stream is being eroded slowly but thats a HUGE distance away yet and more to the point the only reason why the cold is being weakened is because the models are picking up on more disturbances in the flow, as was expected.

Anyway a bitter day for Friday on the 12z, given the snow cover the GFS is progging I'd expect what it shows wouldn't be impossible but I suspect its somewhat extreme anyway.

[Optimus Prime]

Little or no change for Friday, there does appear to a slightly better and stronger flow;

850s locally will be smothered out nearer the time but no change in those either;

Bone chilling.

[Serendipity]

Friday is looking an interesting day, it would not take much to change Friday’s snow crossing the SE and exiting to France, to it being pushed further into central England and the SW.

The snow potential in fact leading into Saturday too for southern midlands.

[johnholmes]

We're getting erosion of the cold pool from the low over the Med / Eastern Europe.

IMBY there isn't yet a strong likelihood of heavy snow (no Easterly) and because I'm not interested in another dusting this projected downgrading of the cold is a worry.

Not just this run either - on the 06z the 528 Dam was lost by T150.

I' not sure if you are a wind up merchant or a comic

neither do 528 thickness lines in these circumstances have a lot to do with it

IF there is ever any sign of low pressure swinging NE from the Med area then it needs a solid block of intensely cold low level air and an upper ridge north of it to deflect it south west.

Has it got these qualities in your view or not?

[snowking]

Things a little further NW on this run - bodes well for all areas really

SK

[pyrotech]

Hi all looking very good with all models for this week over MOST of the UK.

Now this is where i need some help with reading the models and can someone with good experience pleas explain as i am missing something.

The South West and South Wales have done quite poorly in this set up so far.

Now i could see good snow potential for those areas along with just about everyone else for Tuesday!

The NAE charts show rain, as does bbc news forecast.

The GFS shows snow but i am going to ignore that for a minute.

NAE shows temps between -2 and + 1 at 2m = good for snow

Thickness looks good on all charts on all models

Dew points between 0 and over southwales - 2

Great 850s and northerly wind. So no sst to modify percipitation.

Any warm sector would in my opinion be still cold enough for snow

Then take into account evaporative cooling i can not see why this would turn to rain, obviously for meto to be forecasting this rain scenario i am missing an important ingredient in this.

I am a little jealous of you lot in the East and Southeast( in a nice way thou)

Can someone show me something in the models that i am missing in all this.

[kold weather]

The 12z does remind me a little of that failed forecast for Feb 2005 for Saturday, a big difference this time however is Europe is far colder overall and the profiles should be more faovrable.

Anyway another evolution from the 12z which is slightly different, something the GFS has hinted at however for te last 4-6 runs...

I'd imagine that would be a big snow event thats fpor sure, this run would utterly NAIL the SE and would make Feb 09 look puny quite frankly!

[Optimus Prime]

Things a little further NW on this run - bodes well for all areas really

SK

Very good point. More, a lot further north, 60 miles or so. And with winds dieying down and very low 850s/surface temperatures over the weekend it's going to get very cold indeed.

Infact 100-200 miles more north. Probably more.

Edited January 3, 2010 by Optimus Prime