General Model Output Discussion

[snowking]

A spell of snow for most of southern england from the 12z GFS then between T+138 and T+156 - a little later than suggested by Tomasz earlier but i'd wait the extra day to see that come in!

SK

[Eugene]

Maybe its just my eyes but UKMO 12Z T+144 hrs is just MAGNIFICENT tonight :lol:

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?03-17

Edited January 3, 2010 by Eugene

[weather eater]

The 12z does remind me a little of that failed forecast for Feb 2005 for Saturday, a big difference this time however is Europe is far colder overall and the profiles should be more faovrable.

Anyway another evolution from the 12z which is slightly different, something the GFS has hinted at however for te last 4-6 runs...

I'd imagine that would be a big snow event thats fpor sure, this run would utterly NAIL the SE and would make Feb 09 look puny quite frankly!

From the mid range this run is shaping up quite similar to the 06z, although with the center of the high a little further west.

[SMU]

brilliant- 512 DAM in the SE

Snow for nearly everyone- ( BTW EAST & SE have snow for 96 &120)

Today thus far is the best runs for the UK in internet history- as they are now in the 72 & 96 timeframe-- NEARLY NEARLY there-

S

Edited January 3, 2010 by Steve Murr

[morfius]

Northerly reload in FI! The Greenland high rebuilds again towards the end of the run.

Does anyone think the prospects are good for this cold spell to continue into the second half of the month?

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?03-17

brilliant- 512 DAM in the SE

Snow for nearly everyone- ( BTW EAST & SE have snow for 96 &120)

Today thus far is the best runs for the UK in internet history- as they are now in the 72 & 96 timeframe-- NEARLY NEARLY there-

S

BREATHTAKING

[SMU]

OK- so perhaps my posts may have been over the top last night-

So the disclaimer is this MAY NOT HAPPEN however if it did exactly like the 12z-

from 138-162 the GFS progs 24 hours continuous snowfall at around 5mm per hour rates- maybe slightly above at the peak-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/10010912_0312.gif

thats 60cm...........

S

[Bristawl Si]

I know the HP to the North west acts as a block, but it's 5 days away yet from the S.E. snow fest (maybe further into Central Southern and the West Country), and that HP could yet act as a spoiler if it drifts S.E. over england. There are many more model runs to come yet folks.

[cyclonic happiness]

OK- so perhaps my posts may have been over the top last night-

So the disclaimer is this MAY NOT HAPPEN however if it did exactly like the 12z-

from 138-162 the GFS progs 24 hours continuous snowfall at around 5mm per hour rates- maybe slightly above at the peak-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/10010912_0312.gif

thats 60cm...........

S

You forgot to mention "for the southeastern most corner" that leaves 90% of the rest of Briatain dry!

[WINTRY WALES]

brilliant- 512 DAM in the SE

Snow for nearly everyone- ( BTW EAST & SE have snow for 96 &120)

Today thus far is the best runs for the UK in internet history- as they are now in the 72 & 96 timeframe-- NEARLY NEARLY there-

S

Steve you mention nearly everyone. How far west do you think this will spread going by the current output?

Cheers

[on the coast]

Yep the 12z is showing serious snowfall for alot of the Eastern parts of the counrty. A reload looks very possible

in FI too. Wonder if you can hire a Sea King as a taxi

[shuggee]

Nice chart for London and SE England and the north of England on Wednesday afternoon:

[weather eater]

OK- so perhaps my posts may have been over the top last night-

So the disclaimer is this MAY NOT HAPPEN however if it did exactly like the 12z-

from 138-162 the GFS progs 24 hours continuous snowfall at around 5mm per hour rates- maybe slightly above at the peak-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/10010912_0312.gif

thats 60cm...........

S

Coupled with some strong to gale force winds means serious drifting, however as my wife has just pointed out to me, 5 days is a long time in weather land. I think we can at least for the time being, pretty much ignore the 2nd half of the run as the GFS rather seems to lose it way, toying with a GH rebuild only to drop this idea for a return of the Atlantic.

[morfius]

Far FI sends the -5C 3000 miles further north than 10 days prior to it (from North Africa to North Norway!)

[kold weather]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?03-17

brilliant- 512 DAM in the SE

Snow for nearly everyone- ( BTW EAST & SE have snow for 96 &120)

Today thus far is the best runs for the UK in internet history- as they are now in the 72 & 96 timeframe-- NEARLY NEARLY there-

S

Without a doubt the snowiest runs I've ever seen Steve...I was saying on the other thread IF the 12z GFS came off the cumulative snowfall would make Feb 2009 look quite puny...quite unreal charts!

The front/low development for Tuesday-Wednesday really needs to be watched IMO...esp if we do get any development of a low, IF we get two then wherever the front is when that development happens would get utterly nailed...but we shall see thats still something of an outside shot.

[Frosty.]

OK- so perhaps my posts may have been over the top last night-

So the disclaimer is this MAY NOT HAPPEN however if it did exactly like the 12z-

from 138-162 the GFS progs 24 hours continuous snowfall at around 5mm per hour rates- maybe slightly above at the peak-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prty/10010912_0312.gif

thats 60cm...........

S

You might need a big shovel then steve :lol:

The GFS 12z is a snowfest run for the north and east this coming week with sub zero maxima, strong winds blowing the snow into drifts and severe frosts. Beyond that, we will all need a break from the falling snow as parts of the uk will be snowbound by then and no sign of a thaw to help matters either. High pressure building close to the west and we will probably lose the very cold uppers but remain v.cold at the surface and chance of brief N'ly to follow and then perhaps another E'ly. The gfs then shows some milder, wet and windy stuff at the end as a token gesture. I wonder what the euros will show next :lol:

Edited January 3, 2010 by Frosty039

[pyrotech]

Hi all looking very good with all models for this week over MOST of the UK.

Now this is where i need some help with reading the models and can someone with good experience pleas explain as i am missing something.

The South West and South Wales have done quite poorly in this set up so far.

Now i could see good snow potential for those areas along with just about everyone else for Tuesday!

The NAE charts show rain, as does bbc news forecast.

The GFS shows snow but i am going to ignore that for a minute.

NAE shows temps between -2 and + 1 at 2m = good for snow

Thickness looks good on all charts on all models

Dew points between 0 and over southwales - 2

Great 850s and northerly wind. So no sst to modify percipitation.

Any warm sector would in my opinion be still cold enough for snow

Then take into account evaporative cooling i can not see why this would turn to rain, obviously for meto to be forecasting this rain scenario i am missing an important ingredient in this.

I am a little jealous of you lot in the East and Southeast( in a nice way thou)

Can someone show me something in the models that i am missing in all this.

can anyone answer the above question, BFTP , KOLD, JH, STEVE ?

Or is there nothing in the charts to explain this?

Its really foxed me!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Don't go to Morocco or northern Algeria to escape the cold!

[swilliam]

Nice GME for cold and snow in the South and East as well.

[kold weather]

The great thing is the system develops as it tracks westwards through the country.

Some big disagreements however wit hthe evolution of the pattern between the GFS and the UKMO, the GFS takes it to the extreme and brings in yet another huge snowfall for the SE by 156hrs, meanwhile the UKMO relaxes the low instead and so would probably just lead to heavy convective showers, regardless both 144hrs charts from the GFS and the UKMO both have huge snow risk...and not just to the usual places either, one way or the other.

[cooling climate]

OK- so perhaps my posts may have been over the top last night-

So the disclaimer is this MAY NOT HAPPEN however if it did exactly like the 12z-

from 138-162 the GFS progs 24 hours continuous snowfall at around 5mm per hour rates- maybe slightly above at the peak-

http://expert.weathe...010912_0312.gif

thats 60cm...........

S

Would that not be 120mm or 12cm =5 inches or have they not converted to snow equivelent x10 approx.

LOL I can't see there being 50 inches.

Edited January 3, 2010 by cooling climate

[SMU]

Steve you mention nearly everyone. How far west do you think this will spread going by the current output?

Cheers

Between the 120 & 168 timeframe which people seem to be referring to the concentration of snow ( HEAVY PROLONGED) is for the SE- however I would fully expect banding of heavy snow showers & troughs to move from East to west to effect everyone from time to time-

The UK cannot get a NATIONAL snow event from the SE- it would have to be from the SW- however the 12z comes close by giving the south & SE & EA persistent snow with areas further North & west snow showers-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.gif

the 144 culmlative rainfall shows a fair distribution-

Scotland mainly dry ( snow in the Eastern portions) but brutally cold over the already deep covered snowfields)

& yes 50 inches is correct rather than my quick calculation- but no- 50 inches is a little OTT..... lol

S

Edited January 3, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Bobby]

GFS op is a big outlier for precipitation for the SE next week.

Still snow about though.

[SMU]

steve

ive just checked out joe b blog and he has updated it, he seems to think that the storm he was predicting wont be as bad as he sees it heading further south than first thought, what are your thoughts on this and what r the chances of this happening

fromey

He is referring to the track of the Low over Spain & how far North & West it gets-

The track has been modified a little south & East since yesterday- hence the WHOLE of the UK not being enveloped by the Easterlies-

In terms of ENGLAND as a whole not to much as changed- the longivity of snowfall under the easterly regime has probably shortened from 4/5 days to 3/4 days-

Again further correction south east cant be ruled out- each time that happens it will shorten the available time of snow threat, & receed the effected areas further South & east along with it-

Deepest darkest Kent looks a sure fire bet, London looks very very probable-- midlands 50/50-

S

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

GFS op is a big outlier for precipitation for the SE next week.

I think that's because the op is at a higher resolution and can pick up the precipitation better than the other members.