Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[benb]

sunday to wednesday if the gfs is to be believed

Looked a little marginal to me after Mon?

[Elnonio]

Cardiff got an inch (just). Went sledging this morning and by the time we got there the kids were mostly muddy slush/dead leaf sledging. We are definately due a dumping here. Getting very depressed. Please somebody say there are 6 inches on the way for me. Having said that - we have kids doing exams next week in school so don't really want the disruption - just the snow!!!!

[andymusic]

Looked a little marginal to me after Mon?

Still an easterly off a cold continent - not very marginal me thinks

Cardiff got an inch (just). Went sledging this morning and by the time we got there the kids were mostly muddy slush/dead leaf sledging. We are definately due a dumping here. Getting very depressed. Please somebody say there are 6 inches on the way for me. Having said that - we have kids doing exams next week in school so don't really want the disruption - just the snow!!!!

can't have one without the other I'm afraid snow = disruption!!!!!

sunday - wednesday next week has a lot of potential right now - we got 8 inches up in Ponty of virgin snow and can't get the cars out - come up here if you want to go sledging - got some big hills too

[benb]

Still an easterly off a cold continent - not very marginal me thinks

Let's hope so! I'm just a little cautious when the 850s aren't spot on.

[pascalsbongo]

Ian Brown's comments are very encouraging re the low on Sunday.

As for tonight, wind direction is largely Northerly for tonight, so snow showers possible for Pembs and Carms, on or two may get further east, but probably staying dry elsewhere.

So it looks like you could stand on the top of Tycoch hill, and watch it all slide by to the West.

I noticed earlier you commented, that there may be a breakdown in about a weeks time, and as that is relatively a way off is there a chance that things could get much worse for the second half of Jan?

I mean, the really cold air encompasses all, right way down past the south west tip of Cornwall, with ice days becoming the norm for a week or so???

Ice days in swansea that is?

[andymusic]

Let's hope so! I'm just a little cautious when the 850s aren't spot on.

they are argueing about this in the models thread right now and most experienced forecasters know the potential of a cold continental easterly feed even without the correct uppers - one said it can snow with 540 dam coming from a cold continent style easterly! we in wales look like we are gonna do better at keeping our temps the better side of marginal anyway if I'm reading the gfs correctly

[top data]

id say this is about right snow risk from 06 GMT to 12 GMT with a maximum of 4mm of ppn

they do say 1mm of rain = 1 cm of snow i think it all depends on the temp wet or dry

[Bobby]

Several inches if that's right, ties in with Met Office warnings.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Barb-

[Wales123098]

Cardiff got an inch (just). Went sledging this morning and by the time we got there the kids were mostly muddy slush/dead leaf sledging. We are definately due a dumping here. Getting very depressed. Please somebody say there are 6 inches on the way for me. Having said that - we have kids doing exams next week in school so don't really want the disruption - just the snow!!!!

In the north of the county of Cardiff theres alot more snow 8inches of it in places:) take a trip up towards the Pentyrch Tongwynlais area tommorow its worth it if you want to see deep snow or even up the Garth towards my house:)

[pascalsbongo]

Cardiff got an inch (just). Went sledging this morning and by the time we got there the kids were mostly muddy slush/dead leaf sledging. We are definately due a dumping here. Getting very depressed. Please somebody say there are 6 inches on the way for me. Having said that - we have kids doing exams next week in school so don't really want the disruption - just the snow!!!!

Only an inch? i thought you would have had at least 4 inch down that way??

Im going to go sledging this weekend, so travelling from Swansea where is the best place to go??

Am fairly new to the area and was looking just to head up to Merthyr area, have a good walk and find our own hill?

This is purely for the childs benefit of course

[pyrotech]

Ian Brown's comments are very encouraging re the low on Sunday.

As for tonight, wind direction is largely Northerly for tonight, so snow showers possible for Pembs and Carms, on or two may get further east, but probably staying dry elsewhere.

have you got a link to ian browns comments please?

[andymusic]

Only an inch? i thought you would have had at least 4 inch down that way??

Im going to go sledging this weekend, so travelling from Swansea where is the best place to go??

Am fairly new to the area and was looking just to head up to Merthyr area, have a good walk and find our own hill?

This is purely for the childs benefit of course

the storey arms in the beacons is usually the best - as long as you can get there - shouldn't be a prob though

[Cymro]

Only an inch? i thought you would have had at least 4 inch down that way??

Im going to go sledging this weekend, so travelling from Swansea where is the best place to go??

Am fairly new to the area and was looking just to head up to Merthyr area, have a good walk and find our own hill?

This is purely for the childs benefit of course

Closest and best place for you to go is Mynydd y Gwair, Towards the north Morriston way, Felindre,

[pyrotech]

Only an inch? i thought you would have had at least 4 inch down that way??

Im going to go sledging this weekend, so travelling from Swansea where is the best place to go??

Am fairly new to the area and was looking just to head up to Merthyr area, have a good walk and find our own hill?

This is purely for the childs benefit of course

Brecon Beacons, for fast sledging go just beyond first resorvoir , then you will see forest centre on left 2oo yds layby park there accross rd is awsome.

For young kids try further up past third resoivoir opposite story arms it not quite so deadly fast. plus normally burger and tea coffee cabin there for afterwards.

enjoy but be careful as im back in work tomorrow and sure my day will start as my last shift ended, cutting people out of cars. Beware the roads. ICE ICE ICE even on gritted ones.

Edited January 6, 2010 by pyrotech

[J10]

have you got a link to ian browns comments please?

[Bobby]

FAX charts look intriguing for Wales ... maybe some tasty snowfall Sun-Mon from fronts wiggling around towards us from the SE.

[TonyH]

-10.7c now this is a bit silly.

[Wales123098]

I went to my friends house in Tongwynlais today this is Tongwynlais golf course.

[pyrotech]

Hi Jackone thank for the link.

I may put a forecast out Friday for the sunday event. I know its really a now cast for percipitation but feel we will get a general idea of likely hood by then.

Think we both beat mr Brockway yesterday with this last event.

[pascalsbongo]

Thanks for the ideas, i have been around the reservoirs at Felindre quite a few times but did not think of that at all!!

I like that idea, thats a good walk before getting up there ,will make a day of it , will tire the boy out also .

Rather like competetive dad from harry enfield years ago , he is well up for trying to out do me , so will be taking the stop watch to see who is the fastest.

Happy days

[Jayfromcardiff]

In the north of the county of Cardiff theres alot more snow 8inches of it in places:) take a trip up towards the Pentyrch Tongwynlais area tommorow its worth it if you want to see deep snow or even up the Garth towards my house:)

Lol, ye i got 4 inches here.

[J10]

Hi Jackone thank for the link.

I may put a forecast out Friday for the sunday event. I know its really a now cast for percipitation but feel we will get a general idea of likely hood by then.

Think we both beat mr Brockway yesterday with this last event.

Sometimes I find the forecast from Derek slightly out of date, and of course it really doesn't help that the evening ones are recorded hours before.

[andymusic]

Sometimes I find the forecast from Derek slightly out of date, and of course it really doesn't help that the evening ones are recorded hours before.

That was a classic once again - nearly laughed my socks off as the recording was played again and it wasn't even close on target - the other time recently was last feb when that low was approaching and the eve of that one Derek said it wouldn't bother wales only to get up the following morning to get a huge dumping and the low right over us for several hours - Classic good old derek - he tries bless him - within the confines of bbc wales

[J10]

That was a classic once again - nearly laughed my socks off as the recording was played again and it wasn't even close on target - the other time recently was last feb when that low was approaching and the eve of that one Derek said it wouldn't bother wales only to get up the following morning to get a huge dumping and the low right over us for several hours - Classic good old derek - he tries bless him - within the confines of bbc wales

Yes I think the comment " within the confines of bbc wales " sums it up. IMO the forecast was obviously wrong and out of date when it was played at 10.30pm last night, it should have been pulled, it would have been better to not have a forecast than that or better still draft in the News 24 forecaster at that time to quickly do an up to date regional one.

Got to be honest though the classic was on ITV Wales, a few years back when they played a repeat of the previous days forecast by mistake.

[Bobby]

That was a classic once again - nearly laughed my socks off as the recording was played again and it wasn't even close on target - the other time recently was last feb when that low was approaching and the eve of that one Derek said it wouldn't bother wales only to get up the following morning to get a huge dumping and the low right over us for several hours - Classic good old derek - he tries bless him - within the confines of bbc wales

I think Derek is pretty good to be fair, knows his stuff, I remember that Feb cock up too but none of the models were showing it until like T+12 if I remember right, caught everyone out. One of the most memorable weather events ever that was, had 6-8 inches if I recall.