Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[AlexThe Great]

where are these showers coming from that are supposed to hit pembrokeshire tonight ?

thanks

[J10]

Pretty much complete cover here, with around 2-4 inches on grass. With Shaded part of the garden in complete snow cover since last Friday.

I agree with Marcus Surfer, happy with what we got, but could easily have had more. This snow now very likely to last until weekend, and probably much of next week.

Temps of 0c at 5.30pm, with a severe frost to follow

[Cymro]

Pretty much complete cover here, with around 2-4 inches on grass. With Shaded part of the garden in complete snow cover since last Friday.

I agree with Marcus Surfer, happy with what we got, but could easily have had more. This snow now very likely to last until weekend, and probably much of next week.

Temps of 0c at 5.30pm, with a severe frost to follow

The odd shower possible later?

[Jamie.]

Lots of snow to wake up to this Morning, showers during the Day.Most I've seen since Mid 1990's here. We had diggers trying to plough the snow off the roads.

pic...

[J10]

The odd shower possible later?

Possible but not that much as the wind firection doesn't really hit NW for long. I'd rather dry and frosty to keep snow for longer.

[Snowyowl9]

Coldest night of the winter so far tonight easily.

After another large amount of snow last night,today did give 2 soft hail and snow showers and

drifting all day wind picked up more this afternoon,there was a mini avalanche from a huge snow drift,a large chunk came off.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Lampost watcher]

Pretty much complete cover here, with around 2-4 inches on grass. With Shaded part of the garden in complete snow cover since last Friday.

I agree with Marcus Surfer, happy with what we got, but could easily have had more. This snow now very likely to last until weekend, and probably much of next week.

Temps of 0c at 5.30pm, with a severe frost to follow

you haven't happen to notice whether the college in tycoch has cleared away the snow today by any chance???

[soupsurfer7]

Yay my school's closed tmrw :unsure: now can stay up and hopefully see some more snow here after midnight...

[Ukwoody]

Jack, the met office changed their forecast and started showing snow showers for us early tomorrow morn, and Netweather changed their snow chance to 95% for here this evening. Do you think they are off the mark then? I'm just a bit surprsied both increased their ratings, yet I guess you feel differently?

Not trying to question your experience, just purely wondering why?

cheers

woody

[Cymro]

Possible but not that much as the wind firection doesn't really hit NW for long. I'd rather dry and frosty to keep snow for longer.

WHAT about when it turns northerly if them showers across northern england make it further east beore the wind turns?

[J10]

you haven't happen to notice whether the college in tycoch has cleared away the snow today by any chance???

Didn't go past there, however the road was fine this morning, and the main issue would be the snow on the car park and surrounds etc, there is a lot of snow generally around there, so touch and go for tomorrow.

Jack, the met office changed their forecast and started showing snow showers for us early tomorrow morn, and Netweather changed their snow chance to 95% for here this evening. Do you think they are off the mark then? I'm just a bit surprsied both increased their ratings, yet I guess you feel differently?

Not trying to question your experience, just purely wondering why?

cheers

woody

I was on about me and Adam, you have got a much better chance, as you would get showers from a straight northerly, while we need more of a westerly component in the wind. By the way when Net weather says 95% snow showers, it means a 95% chance of any showers being snow, not 95% chance of there being showers.

[J10]

It is a long way away, but signs of an attempted breakdown from SW for the middle part of next week. With the chance of some heavy snow pushing in. ECM in particular looking very interesting indeed.

[Cymro]

It is a long way away, but signs of an attempted breakdown from SW for the middle part of next week. With the chance of some heavy snow pushing in. ECM in particular looking very interesting indeed.

Hmm tbh I would rather it just stayed cold because knowing our luck the mild air would wind and then we would loose our on going snow cover.

[welshwizard]

Hi guys any idea when if? we get another good dumping of snow,been reading some say sat some sun and some say monday, is this about right?

my kids want to see it like it was on top of bwlch mountain today, very large deep drifts of snow but they could not stay out in it because the snow was being blown around something awful,the top road going to abergwynfi was amazing,no soon as the plough went through it filled back up with blizzard blown snow,most snow iv seen on the top for many years and kids want it down here lol.good couple of feet on the top.

[J10]

Hmm tbh I would rather it just stayed cold because knowing our luck the mild air would wind and then we would loose our on going snow cover.

I can see where you are coming from but it is unlikely that the first attempted breakthrough would win.

[Ukwoody]

Didn't go past there, however the road was fine this morning, and the main issue would be the snow on the car park and surrounds etc, there is a lot of snow generally around there, so touch and go for tomorrow.

I was on about me and Adam, you have got a much better chance, as you would get showers from a straight northerly, while we need more of a westerly component in the wind. By the way when Net weather says 95% snow showers, it means a 95% chance of any showers being snow, not 95% chance of there being showers.

Thanks Jack. I didn't realise that about the NW forecast! I always assume (for the last 4 years now) that would mean a 95% chance of actual snow. I think I'm depressed now, LOL. Just hope we do get some!

woody

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The ECM does show the potential for another snow event later on something to keep an eye on. However before then the flow is turning to the East so largely dry and cold for Wales unless a trough pushing through becomes involved which could bring some places light snow showers:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif : < Fax @ 72h

[Bobby]

The ECM does show the potential for another snow event later on something to keep an eye on. However before then the flow is turning to the East so largely dry and cold for Wales unless a trough pushing through becomes involved which could bring some places light snow showers:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif : < Fax @ 72h

I think we'll see a good battleground snow event or two next week. The ECM would give us a good 70s/80s style pasting.

[Snowmadsam]

any snow for south west wales for friday?

[Bobby]

This is our Sunday snow the Met Office are warning about. 5-20cm / 2-8 inches of snow in Wales I would imagine if that came off.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Barb-

[pyrotech]

Ok i see we are talking now about the end of this cold spell!

I have one word for that - premature!!!

Only GFS has really shown in fi a change to mild and that is 10 days plus away

GFS has also played with this idea for a few internmittent runs, like it does with cold spells that keep getting put back in previous years.

The meto 15 day update is for more than 10 days with low confidence of it warming after that.

Here is statement from another thread from west country weather forecaster Ian Ferguson asked if milder weather on way?

"No.

The UKMO Medium-range guys are consistently telling in briefings through the past 48hrs us of a small, consistently-present but very low confidence signal for a gradual transition to a milder SW/S type later in the 10-15 day period but it's miles away frankly and effectively irrelevant. Between now and then, the cold signal is profoundly strong and potentially colder than now."

Right now we are having decade long cold temperatures, extended cold spell not seen since 80s and no realistic end in sight.

an exciting period from late saturday till at least monday of more prolonged snowfall is forecast. remember last nights snow, remember when it was first forecast, yes 24 - 36hr out.

Now look at lying snow in your area, when was last time it lasted more than a few days ( even hours for some)

This is a fantatic period we are currently witnessing if you like cold and snow. Its likely to last. Any warm moist air hitting it can also have a problem shifting it. Cold air is heavy, dense and stubborn, warm moist air is light and buoyant. Often warm air will rise above the cold air and you know what that can mean!!!

Enjoy and its not over yet or any real signs of it ending.

also signs of sudden stratosphere warming which would cause a reload possibly for later.

Edited January 6, 2010 by pyrotech

[swales]

You can tell nothing is going on in Wales at the moment.. dead on here

Come on keep alive, think about potential next week Sunday Monday?

and the risk of further showers for West early hours tomorrow?

Currently very cold and icy here, few flurries lunchtime.

[Cymro]

You can tell nothing is going on in Wales at the moment.. dead on here

Come on keep alive, think about potential next week Sunday Monday?

and the risk of further showers for West early hours tomorrow?

Currently very cold and icy here, few flurries lunchtime.

Hehe omg I was about to say the same thing its -6 here nice and warm

[madian2]

You can tell nothing is going on in Wales at the moment.. dead on here

Come on keep alive, think about potential next week Sunday Monday?

and the risk of further showers for West early hours tomorrow?

Currently very cold and icy here, few flurries lunchtime.

still here in port talbot waiting for me snow to start

[The Weather Dragon]

Cluster of showers beginning to form in the Northern Irish Sea - likley to affect Pembrokeshire in the early hours as the wind veers Northerly