Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[pyrotech]

A quick update now for the weekend and next week

Starting with midnight going into sunday and Wales should start seeing cloud spill over from the Southeast with snow grains and light snow moving accross the nation. Small accumalations will be possible with cold biting winds causing drifting of lying snow. Through Sunday periods of light snow with locally moderate falls will effect the principality with accumalations in places of about 5cm. Through Sunday night and monday the accumalations will gradually build giving favoured areas a total of 15 cm, less favoured areas will have 3cm +.

We now look towards the middle of next week and the two main models GFS and ECM along with the fax charts.

Looking at midday Wednesday

Firstly all three have moved the High pressure to our North west and have it now around 1024mb so there is some consistancy in that.

Ecm above has the low move over the Southeast of UK and the likely warm sector initially would be within the centre, a spell of snow would be likely infront of the low and to its north. This would lead to a breakdown with snow likly to start with.

Moving to GFS now this would also lead to a breakdown but with a snowfest for some.

The fax chart is a little more positive as the low is slightly further south and so we drag in air off a cold continent, the low would need to move further eastwards more than north to to maintain the cold and snow.

What it also needs to look at his cold surface temps and yes cold can be stuborn to move a its more dense than warm air which can slip over the top or fail to budge it.

Secondly the Meto outlook is going for cold spell continuing so they must have confidence in the fax charts, GFS 18z also often known as pub run and worry would really be the ECM which performs well, however it has had some wobbles.

A very complicated picture into next week, a few miles east, west, north or south makes a massive difference with that low pressure.

What i can say is the atlantic will try a breakdown and whatever happens some will get snow, i personally feel fax is probably close to reality and so a fair chance of snow and cold into end of next week but really need to watch which model/fax makes a correction.

The jet stream is further north but for the time in question remains south of the UK which can help keep the high presure in place.

Forecast based on this

After a prolonged spell of light and in places moderate snow into monday we will see an attack from the Atlantic, Cornwall and North Devon likely to see rain / sleet towards mid week and wales a period of moderate snow. Winds will be east / se Wednesday veering northeast by thursday / friday. Snow accumalations of 4 - 20cm again.

This is based on the fax charts, if EcM or GFS comes off there will be some heavy snow away from coastal areas but with a thaw following quickly afterwards.

Whatever the actual outcome there are signs that any mild spell could be short and a return of cold is likely towards end of the month.

To be totally honest this is a forecasters nightmare due to uncertainty over the track of that low pressure

[BranMan]

Yes alot of this is true, I agre e, but things have changed. People don't and are unable nowadays to work on their own doorsteps, school kids have to go miles now to schools as the local ones closed down and they have to be ferried in by coaches and school busses. Local shops have closed because of supermarkets taking over, families are not able to live next door to eachother anymore because of lack of housing etc, so the local community has changed completely and we can only try to do our best in situations like this. I am glad my sons school has been closed, He has to travel along way and through country lanes on the school bus and I would not be happy to send him as I don't feel the roads are safe enough to travel. It is only a very short time in kids life to miss out on school for a few days, but its nice that they are also able to enjoy some of the life experiences which I remember well as a child with our cold winters in the snow. I do have sympathy for all the kids with exams etc. bless them.

I forget that kids have to travel further and all the other things mentioned. I was just generalising society as a whole but you're right, so many things have changed and whether theyre for the better I dont actually know. It just seems a shame that the claim culture seems to dictate our every step. Like I said in my post, if you disagree then say and I fully understand why there are disagreements...I wouldn't want anyones child knocek over because a car is out of control and its a realistic reason why schools should close...perhaps ime old fashioned and I apologise for being so. Im only 42 and grew up during some bad winters. It just seems a shame that we cant seem to get any of it right anymore.

My neighbour couldnt get into work the other day and with a 3 mile hike during tuesdays blizzard and deep snow here ( 9 inches ) she decided to stay at home. No taxis would pick her up. no buses running but her employer threatened her with the sack if it happened again as she didnt make enough effort...she has some health issues would could be affected by walking 3 miles in the snow but this wasnt taken into consideation and she was told if it happens again then she'd be up the road.....is that fair...

we've got too many cars and too many supermarkets and too much convenience and too much money even though we're all skint...i am...but i still manage to buy fags and cider if i want to, this cant be right. OK i work for a living but i cant go if the kids cant go to school, i have to tell work sorry i aint coming in, They aint happy about it. There must be a better answer than this mess were all getting into

[bennytes]

if he sacked her, he'd have a legal case to answer I reckon.

a 3 mile hike in a blizzard is easily enough to kill a HEALTHY person, never mind someone with health issues.

[Cymro]

Isit me or does the radar look full of snow flurry potential for most of southern Wales atm? run through the sequence you'll see what i mean.

[bennytes]

Isit me or does the radar look full of snow flurry potential for most of southern Wales atm? run through the sequence you'll see what i mean.

the mountains are sucking it all dry though.

[alijoe]

I forget that kids have to travel further and all the other things mentioned. I was just generalising society as a whole but you're right, so many things have changed and whether theyre for the better I dont actually know. It just seems a shame that the claim culture seems to dictate our every step. Like I said in my post, if you disagree then say and I fully understand why there are disagreements...I wouldn't want anyones child knocek over because a car is out of control and its a realistic reason why schools should close...perhaps ime old fashioned and I apologise for being so. Im only 42 and grew up during some bad winters. It just seems a shame that we cant seem to get any of it right anymore.

My neighbour couldnt get into work the other day and with a 3 mile hike during tuesdays blizzard and deep snow here ( 9 inches ) she decided to stay at home. No taxis would pick her up. no buses running but her employer threatened her with the sack if it happened again as she didnt make enough effort...she has some health issues would could be affected by walking 3 miles in the snow but this wasnt taken into consideation and she was told if it happens again then she'd be up the road.....is that fair...

we've got too many cars and too many supermarkets and too much convenience and too much money even though we're all skint...i am...but i still manage to buy fags and cider if i want to, this cant be right. OK i work for a living but i cant go if the kids cant go to school, i have to tell work sorry i aint coming in, They aint happy about it. There must be a better answer than this mess were all getting into

Yes I agree with you also and yes I don't think most of it is for the better at all. I think it is a shame things have changed so much, we are always told its for the better and to move with the times, but I think if we could go back things would be far better for so many of us in lots of ways.

[Cymro]

the mountains are sucking it all dry though.

I suppose but it's clouded over here so you never know :/

[bennytes]

I suppose but it's clouded over here so you never know :/

quite a batch of snow laden cloud is now building to our north, so MAYBE it'll break past the mountains and give us a bit now?

actually, the snow is VERY close to you now adam.

Edited January 9, 2010 by bennytes

[Cymro]

quite a batch of snow laden cloud is now building to our north, so MAYBE it'll break past the mountains and give us a bit now?

actually, the snow is VERY close to you now adam.

Crickey that built up fast and yes we have snow grains here probably that's all it will be but still didn't expect it to orm into such a batch i must say. That green pulse could be heading for you.

[bennytes]

Crickey that built up fast and yes we have snow grains here probably that's all it will be but still didn't expect it to orm into such a batch i must say. That green pulse could be heading for you.

no, these mountains to my north are sucking them dry.

enjoy the starter though. i'll hold on for the main course!

[risk of sleet]

Some great posts on this thread lately compared to how it was looking earlier for a while!! Just a tip before I sod off. I'm getting a good supply of logs into the house tomorrow for the stove, and then covering up the wood as best possible. Can't beat burning dry wood (and what a great drying season we have had) and getting maximum heat out of it - beats burning wet wood and seeing much of the heat go up the chim evaporating water. Thermodynamics in action. Thats my plan - nos da

[Cymro]

Nice flakes here blowing in the wind

[Marcus_surfer]

Cloud on the increase here, maybe a few drizzle flakes falling.

[Cymro]

Cloud on the increase here, maybe a few drizzle flakes falling.

That's how it's been here since 15 to 1. A bit more intense now don't have to gaze into the lampost to see the flakes.

[Marcus_surfer]

That's how it's been here since 15 to 1. A bit more intense now don't have to gaze into the lampost to see the flakes.

Nothing here really, just the odd very light flake. Cloud broken too.

[Methuselah]

It's new thread time...