3 Counties & E Anglia Cold Spell Discussion Part 2

[we1330]

I can see milky white cloud off to my North East, although my Net Weather Extra radar seems to have frozen about an hour ago.

Hopefully we'll see some snow here later. Off to work at 2pm, have fun folks .

EDIT, radar works again now .

Edited January 9, 2010 by we1330

[NothingHappensInNorwich]

What are the best overlays to use on NW Radar to get an idea of what is happening/going to happen?

[saint]

TEITS posts are usually good because they usually feed our hope! I'm not knocking him by any means because I do have a lot of respect for him, but I've found with many on here that forecasts are often done with a lot of heart mixed in with the head!

Being no expert myself and certainly nowhere in TEITS league, I've nevertheless had this gut feeling that the warnings of yesterday were being overdone. On the forum there's a tendency to get optimisim into the forum. From the BBC perspective they are on a win win situation if they overhype things... getting praise for getting it right and if they're wrong, well there's no newsworthy event and no ones in the media is paying attention to their wrong forecast.

I've found that the two best snow events of this year we've had were largely not forecast! In Feb we got all our snow from a Thames Streamer which i only read about on here, while the bid band of snow that was then forecast to fall on top of it failed to materialise.

the snow we got on wednesday was mainly supposed to hit further west according to the forecast just a day earlier.

So your are accepting we shouldnt really trust forecast produced by eg: The BBC? I think people like TEITS do extremley well! As he says he has done very well forecasting these events.

If you need more proof the cloud over Herts is from the fronts!!!!! Which are mvoing which is why cloud has come over!

[Iceni]

Apart from Kent (again ) this stuff from the channel seems to be either fizzling out or stationary — certainly not making any moves further inland in the past hour or so, just seems to be sliding up the Essex/Suffolk coast.

Oh well.

[Ben_Cambs]

The Snow is piling in to the SE. Whiteouts and Blizzard conditions being reported. The Met and BBC are underestimating the snow potential for EA for sure. TEITS has been correct every time this winter so I would suggest and advise people to listen to what he says. Hopefully this trend will continue:

I feel Monday is going to be an extreme day for much of E Anglia/Midlands/Wales/N England.

Edited January 9, 2010 by Snowman0697

[NothingHappensInNorwich]

Norfolks blob on Meteox seems to have died

[saint]

Remember also that it's better it falls later today as it will be colder then.....

[coffee23]

Hi peeps,

Don't know how cold it got round here last night but we only managed a dusting of snow.

And the water meter on the outside toilet has frozen and burst (cracked about a 1/4 inch wide)

Hope the snow makes it this far north.

[Timmytour]

So your are accepting we shouldnt really trust forecast produced by eg: The BBC? I think people like TEITS do extremley well! As he says he has done very well forecasting these events.

If you need more proof the cloud over Herts is from the fronts!!!!! Which are mvoing which is why cloud has come over!

Saint...all I'm saying is that forecasts that predict snow for us are great to hear but not neccessarily the best forecasts.

I don't think the cloud is really any great surprise...what would be to me is to get anything much stronger than flurries out of it, and more than a dusting by the time sunday night comes.

To me next week promises much more... but in that horrible way where a thaw sets in quickly afterwards

[Ben_Cambs]

Looking at the radar there is quite a big band of persistant snow currently over parts of France, the Netherlands and Belguim and is heading our way. Hopefully it will pick up more moisture over the Channel/North Sea

[Wayneywoo]

Looks like the clouds run out of PPN shortly after making landfall as they travel NW up from the SE.

[If Wishes made Weather]

To my surprise things are getting going a bit in the East. The snow band earlier over Kent and the Thames estuary has made landfall is over Southend and generally heading NE very slowly. At the same time the intensity of the same band Ipswich way has increased and is heading ENE. Clearly time to get the snowshields up.

For me - and I accept the IMBYism of this comment - this cold session has been missing a more Eastern 'event' (say a polar low tracing down the North Sea or the sort of conditions that gave the more intense showers that were blown inland last February). Top weather though nevertheless - cold, some snow cover and sunny.

Maybe tonight we see some action? circa 5 cm generally?

MetOffice warnings an absolute hoot talking about more snowfall over high ground. SE England may be famous for one or two things, but high ground is not one of them.

[saint]

Saint...all I'm saying is that forecasts that predict snow for us are great to hear but not neccessarily the best forecasts.

I don't think the cloud is really any great surprise...what would be to me is to get anything much stronger than flurries out of it, and more than a dusting by the time sunday night comes.

To me next week promises much more... but in that horrible way where a thaw sets in quickly afterwards

We will just have to wait and see but where do you think the snow further South is going then? Places reporting heavy snow... Wheres that going then?

[East Herts Snow]

To be fair predicting snow streamers is usually down to micro weather forecasting in a very small area.

You would rarely get this on the national weather forecast, or even the local weather forecast (which I find are sometimes worse than the national forecast!). These forecasts tend to just deal with a 'broad overview' of what the weather will do for large areas (especially for metropolitan areas). You will still find smaller areas receiving a more severe version of the broad forecast, even if they predict "accumulations up to 15cm" some smaller areas will receive higher amounts.

You will only ever get detailed local micro weather forecasting on sites like this and long may it continue!

Edited January 9, 2010 by North Londoner

[garp100]

If its falling as snow on the coast then its suggests there is no problem with marginality due to the higher upper air temps.

Met check good for a laugh as usual, one day next week has "Temp -7" "feels -4"!!!!!!!!!!! Not a patch on thier forecast of 240mph winds the other week though.

[BarnetBlizzard]

The heavy snow in kent is deterioting rather quickly as the wind is from the NE. But hopefully has the winds wing round more to to the E hopefully we will see some snow making it this far.

[Macey]

If its falling as snow on the coast then its suggests there is no problem with marginality due to the higher upper air temps.

Met check good for a laugh as usual, one day next week has "Temp -7" "feels -4"!!!!!!!!!!! Not a patch on thier forecast of 240mph winds the other week though.

They constantly go wrong haha. I was a bit worried the other week when they were forecast 300mph winds with -200*C wind chill

[Southernman]

It's been snowing quite heavy on and off here. Starting again at this moment.

[Ben_Cambs]

To my surprise things are getting going a bit in the East. The snow band earlier over Kent and the Thames estuary has made landfall is over Southend and generally heading NE very slowly. At the same time the intensity of the same band Ipswich way has increased and is heading ENE. Clearly time to get the snowshields up.

For me - and I accept the IMBYism of this comment - this cold session has been missing a more Eastern 'event' (say a polar low tracing down the North Sea or the sort of conditions that gave the more intense showers that were blown inland last February). Top weather though nevertheless - cold, some snow cover and sunny.

Maybe tonight we see some action? circa 5 cm generally?

MetOffice warnings an absolute hoot talking about more snowfall over high ground. SE England may be famous for one or two things, but high ground is not one of them.

It could be very persistant in places, Parts of EA may see snow for a long time, it will generally be light and sometimes moderate but over a period of time it can build up well

[Mrsf16]

Just Some local info, the A1 is nice and clear currently, between Peterborough and Sawtry at least, roads are just a bit moist but nothing to worry about.

Personally I would take TEITS forecast any day as he has been spot on as far as Im concerned, earlier in the week he said that within 10 mins there would be snow, and indeed there was snowflakes falling outside my window within those 10 mins!

Anway Im off to Tesco to stock up

[Timmytour]

To be fair predicting snow streamers is usually down to micro weather forecasting in a very small area.

You would rarely get this on the national weather forecast, or even the local weather forecast (which I find are sometimes worse than the national forecast!). These forecasts tend to just deal with a 'broad overview' of what the weather will do for large areas (especially for metropolitan areas). You will still find smaller areas receiving a more severe version of the broad forecast, even if they predict "accumulations up to 15cm" some smaller areas will receive higher amounts.

You will only ever get detailed local micro weather forecasting on sites like this and long may it continue!

I'm sure you had this as a quote from me at first! i was thinking...don't remember writing that but that's exactly what I think! :-)

[saint]

It could be very persistant in places, Parts of EA may see snow for a long time, it will generally be light and sometimes moderate but over a period of time it can build up well

Sadly mate, some people ignore very good posters such as yourself and TEITS!

It's a case of wait and see now people, I recomend you all get away from the computer and come back in a couple of hours and see what has happened/will happen.

[Timmytour]

We will just have to wait and see but where do you think the snow further South is going then? Places reporting heavy snow... Wheres that going then?

i have a hope....and I have a fear!

My gut feel goes with the fear...that everything will pretty much stall to the south and east of the region

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

We just had a tiny flurry, only a few flakes, but interesting nonetheless.

[Ben_Cambs]

Sadly mate, some people ignore very good posters such as yourself and TEITS!

It's a case of wait and see now people, I recomend you all get away from the computer and come back in a couple of hours and see what has happened/will happen.

I think too may people believe in what they see on forecasts like the BBC. A forecast is never going to be correct and there is plenty of times even this winter when theyve got their forecasts wrong. TEITS has been right every single time this winter so I cant see him being wrong again, the models are suggesting it too

Theres plenty of things to suggest that our part of Britain will remain in the cold spell for some time yet. Expect further snowfall in this part of EA next week. Only Western Britain may return milder according to the major models

Edited January 9, 2010 by Snowman0697