North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[paul tall]

I think the key is the intensity of the precipitation, it looks no more than drizzle, or snizzle depending on what side of marginal you are.

Temperature here is 2.8º, dew point -3.5º.

[Geordiesnow]

Everyone was preety confident about temps getting no higher than 2 or 3C today but they have so you never be certain and snow can fall at temps of 8C so at 4C there is still a chance if dewpoint is in negative territory

Its snowing in the midlands aswell all im saying is dont rule it out. surprises do happen!

Snow does not fall at 8C, its virtually impossible. You might get spring days where the temp rises to around 8C in the reletively warm sun but as soon as a shower comes along, the temp drops to around 1-2C(depending how cold the upper air is) as the PPN brings the colder air down.

You don't get that same temp drop in winter sadly.

[Snowstorm1]

Snow does not fall at 8C, its virtually impossible. You might get spring days where the temp rises to around 8C in the reletively warm sun but as soon as a shower comes along, the temp drops to around 1-2C(depending how cold the upper air is) as the PPN brings the colder air down.

You don't get that same temp drop in winter sadly.

Okay but i was just making a point of what can happen. and temps and dew points are starting to drop now.

[Alex95]

Okay but i was just making a point of what can happen. and temps and dew points are starting to drop now.

Not here, the temperature is 4.5ºC and is quite steady. You shouldn't get your hopes up, there is probably a low chance of snow but even if a few wet flakes fall it will seem pathetic compared to the cold spell up until now. The temperature today is the highest since Wednesday the 16th December I think, but I lost track of the temperature between Christmas and New Year when there was a thaw so I could be wrong.

This has been the best cold spell I can remember around here (I'm too young even for those 80s cold spells), and school shut for 3 days, the last time it shut was in February 1991 for 1 or 2 days so that's very good going.

Edited January 10, 2010 by alza

[Deep Snow please]

I just want this snow to go and then a freak weather system to bring 10 or 11ft of lying snow, the drifts on that would be phenomenal. Anyway back to the real world and short term. Don't think I've got much chance of snow here in Washington.

[Snowstorm1]

Not here, the temperature is 4.5ºC and is quite steady. You shouldn't get your hopes up, there is probably a low chance of snow but even if a few wet flakes fall it will seem pathetic compared to the cold spell up until now. The temperature today is the highest since Wednesday the 16th December I think, but I lost track of the temperature between Christmas and New Year when there was a thaw so I could be wrong.

This has been the best cold spell I can remember around here (I'm too young even for those 80s cold spells), and school shut for 3 days, the last time it shut was in February 1991 for 1 or 2 days so that's very good going.

My hopes aint up mate but im not going to rule snow out atm i would give a 25% chance of snow 60% mix of rain/sleet/snow and 15% rain. And i didnt get school shut at all. But on friday night that was the best snowfall of my life and the reason im so dissappointed is that I havent had long to enjoy that. But i have had a covering for many days so i cant be dissappointed though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The temperature at which snow can fall depends mainly on the relative humidity, the lower the humidity, the lower the dewpoint by implication, and the warmer it has to get before it can't snow. Another lesser, but still important, factor is the stability of the airmass. A more unstable airmass implies a shallower layer of warm temperatures near the surface, meaning that falling snowflakes spend less time in air warm enough to melt them before they reach the ground.

Here's a link which goes into a lot of detail on the subject:

http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowAboveFreezing

One general approximation of the rule of thumb, mentioned in the comments, is that snow is near-guaranteed if the average of the air temperature and dewpoint is below freezing, as long as there is no warmer air aloft. In an unstable airmass you may have up to 2C of leeway over that.

And yes, it can snow at 8C, but it requires humidity around 20% (maybe 30% if you're talking the start of a snow shower in spring, but in that case it would soon cool off as the shower got underway), so it is very rare. But snow at 4 or 5C isn't that unusual, requiring humidities of an unexceptional 40-50%.

The current airmass is very stable so you'd probably need the average of the temperature and dewpoint to be below freezing to have much chance of seeing proper snow.

[Snowstorm1]

The temperature at which snow can fall depends mainly on the relative humidity, the lower the humidity, the lower the dewpoint by implication, and the warmer it has to get before it can't snow. Another lesser, but still important, factor is the stability of the airmass. A more unstable airmass implies a shallower layer of warm temperatures near the surface, meaning that falling snowflakes spend less time in air warm enough to melt them before they reach the ground.

Here's a link which goes into a lot of detail on the subject:

http://www.sciencebi...owAboveFreezing

One general approximation of the rule of thumb, mentioned in the comments, is that snow is near-guaranteed if the average of the air temperature and dewpoint is below freezing, as long as there is no warmer air aloft. In an unstable airmass you may have up to 2C of leeway over that.

And yes, it can snow at 8C, but it requires humidity around 20%, so it is very rare. But snow at 4 or 5C isn't that unusual, requiring humidities of an unexceptional 40-50%.

The current airmass is very stable so you'd probably need the average of the temperature and dewpoint to be below freezing to have much chance of seeing proper snow.

Do you think ill see any snow ? my chances for me id say 25% snow 60% mix rain/sleet/snow 15% rain

[Alex95]

My hopes aint up mate but im not going to rule snow out atm i would give a 25% chance of snow 60% mix of rain/sleet/snow and 15% rain. And i didnt get school shut at all. But on friday night that was the best snowfall of my life and the reason im so dissappointed is that I havent had long to enjoy that. But i have had a covering for many days so i cant be dissappointed though.

I'd be fed up if I was made to wait until Friday night to get a thick covering and had to watch it melt a couple of days later

There was a good 10cm here on New Years day here, and that has obviously lasted throughout bar losing a few cm last Saturday. There has also been a few good top ups giving between 4cm and 8cm of fresh snow.

[dave79]

temp 4 degrees dew point 0 wind 42 kmph east north east I'm in shock, I did not think this much snow could melt away in the space of a day, especially in january and especially with the winds coming in from the east, I expected a slow thaw over the week but this is really something else.

[Alex95]

Temps are 3-5ºC across the region at low levels, and dewpoints around -2ºC to 1ºC judging by the reports, so the average is generally just above freezing. Another reason to expect rain rather than snow as the dewpoint will probably rise when the precipitation comes along with the higher humidity.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Temps are 3-5ºC across the region at low levels, and dewpoints around -2ºC to 1ºC judging by the reports, so the average is generally just above freezing. Another reason to expect rain rather than snow as the dewpoint will probably rise when the precipitation comes along with the higher humidity.

Even up in these higher parts things are marginal.

Medomsley has a temp of 2.7C and dp of -2.4C, average just above 0.

Getting up towards Tow Law it's more favourable, temp 1.7C, dp -2.5C, average -0.8C

If dewpoints rise further we could all be in for a sleety mix at best.

[Freezing-Point]

What an abrupt end to a fantastic cold period, the North sea has destroyed any chances of snow at low levels. The milder temps combined with the strong dry wind the snow is being evaporated away quite quickly.

We have had extremes of temperatures and regular snowfalls comparable to some of our best winters. We can't complain really. We should have one period like this every year.

We are now enterning a 'cool' period with snow reserved for high ground, then it looks like a classic East vs West battle with us right on the battle gound. If the Scandi high can drag enough cold air into circulation then we could be looking at more snow events in mid Jan. But the south will always be favorite due to the air being less modified by the N.Sea. Who wins the battle, nobody can be sure at this time, but if the cold did win, then this winter surely will be a modern classic that would rival the best.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Freezing-Point

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can only see sleet and graupel coming in off the North Sea for coastal areas- probably snow inland, at least on high ground, but I doubt it would be enough to provide meaningful accumulations.

Best bet for more snowfall in the North East, as long as this frontal battleground scenario keeps up, would be to have a frontal system move east in association with more of a southerly flow, as the GFS 12Z comes close to projecting for Wednesday- this would mean a snow event as there would be little modification from the North Sea in that case. However those frontal bands have a habit of fizzling over the Pennines. While I remember snow in Cleadon from the frontal event of 5-7 February 1996, and there was a bit of snow there on 12 March 2006 as well, it was nothing compared to what the west got.

Longer-term if you want snow your best bet is probably for the Atlantic to fizzle out altogether and for the Scandinavian High to extend back west again to our N, eventually bringing a renewed pool of cold, relatively unstable air across from the east and causing the theme of sunshine and snow showers to resume, but that's unlikely to happen for at least another week or so.

[paul tall]

Today will forever be known as "The Day Of The Hairdryer Easterly"

Current conditions here are Temp 2.6º, dew point -3.7º (Not convinced the humidity is really accurate on my station - often I'm a fair bit higher or lower % than surrounding stations.)

[Rollo]

Temperature topped off at 4.2c here today and is currently 2.1c. I remember from the 1960's these battles of attrition occuring and invariably (as my memory recalls) the cold easterlies eventually won out despite the forecasts often calling it the other way.Of course that was 40 years ago and we now have GW or if you believe it AGW but my bet is that at some point soon the cold continental weather will return.

[peterf]

i only listen to radio newcastle when driving.this morning Hannah Bayman stated we would have a slight thaw later today,could of told her that when the icicles were falling off the gutters lol.she then went on to state a major snowfall event of upto 8" for high ground inland (tow law) and temps down to -5 or -6.

what a load of utter tosh in my opinion.she's now gone on the run lol.the thaw is here and i'm glad of it.

Edited January 10, 2010 by peterf

[snowmackem]

Something is afoot.I've seen more gritters in the last 2 hrs than I have done all week. Drove from Ryton to Team Valley and back and saw total of SIX different gritters in operation on various roads including the A1. I know for a fact that they only spread grit when they have info regarding an imminent event, be it icy conditions or snow ( the timing is usually approx 1 hr before, this gives the salt time to bed into the road surface and isn't done too far in advance to ensure it isn't washed/blown away too soon)

So what is going on, with the air temp still hovering around 3-4 deg and rapid thawing still taking place. They will not be too free and easy with the grit atm considering they have virtually run out!

They must be confident of something though, but I can't see any sign of freezing surfaces or snow in the next couple of hours. Any clues?

Karl

Edit for spelling

Edited January 10, 2010 by snowmackem

[paul tall]

They will be going off the now defunct Met Office warnings.

[peterf]

Something is afoot.I've seen more gritters in the last 2 hrs than I have done all week. Drove from Ryton to Team Valley and back and saw total of SIX different gritters in operation on various roads including the A1. I know for a fact that they only spread grit when they have info regarding an imminent event, be it icy conditions or snow ( the timing is usually approx 1 hr before, this gives the salt time to bed into the road surface and isn't done too far in advance to ensure it isn't washed/blown away too soon)

So what is going on, with the air temp still hovering around 3-4 deg and rapid thawing still taking place. They will not be too free and easy with the grit atm considering they have virtually run out!

They must be confident of something though, but I can't see any sign of freezing surfaces or snow in the next couple of hours. Any clues?

Karl

Edit for spelling

local councils never cease to amaze me.just been talking to mate at derwentside,and he says several artic vehicles brought salt to the Morrison depot.

1 wagon tipped and they then realised the paperwork was not quite in order regards delivery depot.they contacted the haulage company to inform them.

the company refused to change their routes of delivery,so all artics tipped inside the dome then a shovel driver was called in so he could reload a new ordered fleet of artics,to take the salt to the right destination within Co.Durham.

nice to see our council tax being spent so wisely

They will be going off the now defunct Met Office warnings.

i tell ya what Paul,ive never seen the local met get it so wrong in all my years lol.heads should roll for what Hannah Baymen predicted this morning.

the turnaround was staggering come teatime.

Kathy Secker even turned round on her show and said,it may be better to look out of your window after the latest predictions by our forecasters

hope she dosen't bump into TRAI the morra lol.

Edited January 10, 2010 by peterf

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Band coming into Middelsborough now or shortly.... :/ As TWS mentions maybe we will see something more significant again later in the week...

[Dom W]

Had a slight thaw in Peterlee, icicles have now gone and I noticed the thick snow on top of garden table has slowly began to shrink, still a lot of snow on the ground though. I have a feeling that Peterlee will see sleety rain rather than snow tonight.

It has been a great spell of cold weather but the country needs to get moving again and hopefully this slightly less cold spell will help some people get moving again.

[peterf]

Had a slight thaw in Peterlee, icicles have now gone and I noticed the thick snow on top of garden table has slowly began to shrink, still a lot of snow on the ground though. I have a feeling that Peterlee will see sleety rain rather than snow tonight.

It has been a great spell of cold weather but the country needs to get moving again and hopefully this slightly less cold spell will help some people get moving again.

i concur

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Anyone got PPN yet? Certainly something in the air here.

Just a couple of spots of water on the window so I can't tell what it fell as.

Temp at nearest station is 2.5C, dewpoint -1.9C, could be close.

[Alex95]

Beefy showers on the radar now in the North Sea, could speed up the thaw for most whilst giving higher parts a pasting? They look to be heading for Newcastle / Southern Northumberland.

Btw whilst not NE related does anyone know why there is a large ring over Ireland on the radar?