General Model Output Discussion

[TEITS]

That Siberian high is huge. If you follow the flow coming across the north European plain, it almost looks as though it is coming from Mongolia.

Astonishing chart and I have no doubts snow cover is aiding the Siberian HP here. I also notice on that chart you posted that the NE of the US could be experiencing a similiar weather pattern to that in Feb 91 i.e much milder S,lys due to HP off the E coast. I have to say so far the model output is reminding me very much of Feb 91. The only difference is this time the block could be even stronger!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Blast,

I noticed the gfs 00z has 2 cold shots in FI with the first blast then an attempted breakdown followed by another blast, a generally very wintry FI and I just heard John Hammond say it will turn much colder next week which shows high confidence at this range and I know that you and teits expect it to become v.cold next week so fingers crossed.

I suspect that Francis Wilson on Sky will be cringing at his interview alongside Piers Corbyn. He stated that it will all be over by this weekend, Piers said it was just a blip and that cold would renew. John Hammond is one of my favourites and IMO is one of the best on TV, I'd support what he says.

BFTP

[kold weather]

Models are very interesting this morning and show what I was suggesting last night, the op runs are the ones to follow, the ensembles will slowly fall inline with the op runs. The key thing to note is with the PV where it is any cut-off low that forms and gets shunted SE (which is more likely to happen given a strength of the block) is going to shunt us back into a SE/E airflow...its the most logical evolution ~IMO...whether or not it evolves into something significant or just a near standard HP/SE type set-up its hard to say BUT any milder blip is going to be just that from the looks of things...

[TEITS]

I tell you what Saturday isn't looking that mild based on the 06Z with the exception of the far SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.png

Still the possibility that during this week the model output may backtrack towards less cold this weekend rather than mild.

[jethro]

Models are really picking up on this and after the weekend another week of cold is on the cards, that I have confidence in as I think Jethro will remember that the cold spell [barr the blip] will last to Jan the 24th before a real breakdown.

Morning Blast, yes I remember asking if the battleground/snowmageddon was still on for the 14th. Well it's the 13th and I've got roughly 8 inches of lying snow after a top up of 5-6 inches through yesterday/last night. Credit where credit's due, that's a pretty good call.

Will the promised more cold in the models materialise? Time will tell.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Anybody noticed the second occluded front making its way behind the first front (UKMO Fax Chart 00z), over the west/central midlands by tomorrow morning?

Also, a trough following behind the second front, as it moves north/north-east.

[cooling climate]

We are not there yet but going by the model output this morning it does look as though Teits

may have made a very good call.

I have noticed one or two posters who were calling for the opposite to happen are now trying to

also take some credit, tut, tut.

I see Piers Corbyn name mentioned, that guy knows as much about the weather as I know about

brain surgery.

The 06z GFS seems to be going the same way as the 12z which is good to see as I think this is one

of the GFS weaker runs performance wise.

What a winter this is turning out to be and I still can not believe the Met missed it.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Is there any chance we can cut all the personality-based posts and back-slapping? It's so bloody tiresome.

[ANYWEATHER]

I tell you what Saturday isn't looking that mild based on the 06Z with the exception of the far SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.png

Still the possibility that during this week the model output may backtrack towards less cold this weekend rather than mild.

Yep Sunday looks cold away from the far southwest! Looks like one of those classic scenarios of Winters gone by when a warn up was expected but did not really happen!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We are not there yet but going by the model output this morning it does look as though Teits

may have made a very good call.

I have noticed one or two posters who were calling for the opposite to happen are now trying to

also take some credit, tut, tut.

I see Piers Corbyn name mentioned, that guy knows as much about the weather as I know about

brain surgery.

The 06z GFS seems to be going the same way as the 12z which is good to see as I think this is one

of the GFS weaker runs performance wise.

What a winter this is turning out to be and I still can not believe the Met missed it.

It appears he knows more than Francis Wilson? I can't see anyone making out that they called for the opposite to happen CC? I agree though that Dave stuck to his guns, but having followed Dave's posts for 5 years now...he always has.

Nice start to 06z, t96 that shortwave in the channel is developing into a channel LP.....watch for that feature folks...its one of the southerly tracking LPs I have been on about. Pretty cold NE/lies on the northern flank.and for me a potential snow set up....I know its early but just maintaining my viewpoint.

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TEITS]

A trend is certainly appearing at +96 and this is why I suggested we keep an eye on the models upgrading from midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Whats basically happening is as we move towards this weekend the models are downgrading the milder SW,lys as we see the block being further W (always happens!). We then see the system on Sunday track underneath the block and this allows the HP to move further W.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Can I just ask why, all of a sudden, we are posting charts from the GFS, when it has been ridiculed by so many people about its accuracy...especially the 06z!

[casparjack]

I see Piers Corbyn name mentioned, that guy knows as much about the weather as I know about

brain surgery.

I know it'll be deleted, but WTH, sorry mods!!

Can I just ask why, all of a sudden, we are posting charts from the GFS, when it has been ridiculed by so many people about its accuracy...especially the 06z!

Because when it shows a return to cold it is a much more reliable model!!

[TEITS]

Is there any chance we can cut all the personality-based posts and back-slapping? It's so bloody tiresome.

I can't help it if im fantastic.

Being serious and im personally just happy with the overall trend. Such a welcome sight to see mild downgraded and this s been the theme of the winter so far.

What a fantastic chart this is.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

[ANYWEATHER]

Can I just ask why, all of a sudden, we are posting charts from the GFS, when it has been ridiculed by so many people about its accuracy...especially the 06z!

Well its the only model I show on here along with ecm and sometimes the Metoffice

[nick sussex]

The gfs seems determined to bring in some colder weather much earlier than the ecm and ukmo, looking at its ensembles it seems to be a bit of an outlier, the cold generally arrives later than the last two operational runs. However if the gfs verifies there could be more snow as the shortwave heads se and pulls some colder upper air back into the east and se. Very interesting new trend developing it maybe that the far se remains cold with only a slaw thaw before the easterly reload next week. Not quite there yet though but close to another good spell of colder weather.

[kold weather]

TEITS, I said last night that the models will keep trending north and westwards, this process is occuring now within several synoptic set-ups that are being progged by the models.

What we are seeing on the models is very good, because the PV finally has re-organised itself again into something that resembles an average PV and yet we are still seemingly able to get into a blocking situation. I suspect with temps shoting up in the Stratosphere again soon the PV will weaken once more and possibly split and that huge high sat over a good chunk of Russia and Europe will be the perfect building blocks...

I'm now convinced this will be a historic winter....given what I'm seeing on the models any milder blip really will be a blip amongst cold spells.

[Damp and dreary]

Is there any chance we can cut all the personality-based posts and back-slapping? It's so bloody tiresome.

Hear hear, 'Pats OOn on the back'

Oh hang on thats not right.

Sorry matey. Still looking interesting with the possibility of that shortwave over S.E in a few days time, would it make a lot of difference to the temps down here? its been blinking close to marginal for the last few days...

[Southender]

-10 850 hPa back into the Eastern side, as early as Tuesday evening!

Lovely.

Edited January 13, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[TEITS]

I'm now convinced this will be a historic winter....given what I'm seeing on the models any milder blip really will be a blip amongst cold spells.

The potential is certainly there mate.

I may sound greedy but my only gripe with next week is the lack of a pool of -20C temps. However at this range its always difficult to access just how cold it will be. Furthermore with this blocking who knows how this will develop in the longer term.

Still early days but this mornings output is incredible compared to yesterday mornings output.

[Harsh Climate]

Wohoo the gfs 06z looks a corker

There certainly is a growing trend towards a more easterly airflow down the line, a long way to go but very promising signs

[SMU]

yeah baby- 06z is special-

this special....( not quite as cold)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-162.png?6

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910206.gif

S

Edited January 13, 2010 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

GFS 06z looks very cold once again, its the trend we are looking for thats for sure, the 06z would make a severe month nailed on (1.5C or colder, not seen since Feb 91) and also worth noting that PV moving away from the pole again and weakening.

Looks increasingly likely we will at least see a few days of colder weather again, possibly far more then that if everything falls correctly.

[cooling climate]

I'm now convinced this will be a historic winter....given what I'm seeing on the models any milder blip really will be a blip amongst cold spells.

I think you could well be right. I know it sounds exaggerated but from what we are seeing from the

models plus what is happening or forcast to happen in the stratosphere this cold and very cold weather

could go on and on turning this winter into like you say a historic winter.

If temperatures only manage 3 to 5c in the east this coming weekend and then back down to around freezing

then this cold spell (differing degrees of cold ) will have lasted for over two weeks and judging by what the

06z is showing could last a lot, lot longer.

Just to add just because the GFS did not really get to grips with synoptics for last week or came on board late

does not mean it will be the same this time, but it will be very interesting to see what the European models have

to say tonight.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Increasing signs that a return to colder conditions are likely sometime next week. However, it could be the case that the GFS is being ultra progressive with the speed of the renewed colder weather. Only yesterday it was the least keen to return the colder weather, being keen to speed up the northern branch of the jetstream, and I think that in view of how erratic it can be it might be as well to wait and see what upcoming cross model opinion suggests.

It becomes to easy to have one favoured model when it shows what is hoped for! Something we ALL can be guilty of. lol!

However, much better signals than yesterday that something from the east is going to make its return in the near future. The only issue seems to be the timing and the depth of the cold pool that arrives. There is still a chance that the coldest air remains just to our east - there is no certainty in this respect yet.

Edited January 13, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection