General Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

The ECM 12z ensembles for London are just out:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

Not particularly inspiring to be honest, with the ECM one of the colder options.

They look nice for Berlin though!

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html?eps=berlin

[bluearmy]

The ECM 12z ensembles for London are just out:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

Not particularly inspiring to be honest, with the ECM one of the colder options.

They look nice for Berlin though!

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html?eps=berlin

you must be special paul - they still show 00z for me !!

i thought they werent too bad actually.

[PB22]

you must be special paul - they still show 00z for me !!

i thought they werent too bad actually.

Try an Ctrl+F5 refresh? I have the 12:00 12/01/2010 set on my screen!

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

[chionomaniac]

The last few winters we have had to get use to northerlies that are programmed by the models. Once they get into the reliable timeframe they slip off towards the east and we are left with thoughts of what could have been whilst it snows in Greece. Well look at the GFS tonight compared to the earlier run and we are seeing the same scenario being played out but with one noticeable difference - it's occurring upside down!!! This time we see a programmed southerly that looks like it will cover the UK getting slowly edged westwards with Iceland getting the milder air, and keeping us in the cold air, with possibly just the SW getting double digit temps for 1 day. I always thought that any milder interlude would get squeezed at both ends and that certainly is a strong possibility now.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The last few winters we have had to get use to northerlies that are programmed by the models. Once they get into the reliable timeframe they slip off towards the east and we are left with thoughts of what could have been whilst it snows in Greece. Well look at the GFS tonight compared to the earlier run and we are seeing the same scenario being played out but with one noticeable difference - it's occurring upside down!!! This time we see a programmed southerly that looks like it will cover the UK getting slowly edged westwards with Iceland getting the milder air, and keeping us in the cold air, with possibly just the SW getting double digit temps for 1 day. I always thought that any milder interlude would get squeezed at both ends and that certainly is a strong possibility now.

Nicely put.

Upside down it is!!

Interesting that yet again, we see something that starts over us and then moves away, this time in the opposite way. Amazing

[TEITS]

Now thats the kind of E,ly I would like to see.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn27617.png

Max temps on the continent around -15C, Mins around -30C.

Always have fond memories in the 1980s of watching the BBC forecasts show a mass of dark blues heading towards the UK. I bet Steve M, Paul Sherman remember these forecasts.

Im going to resist getting excited. However looking for a cold spell in the models is always about taking little steps towards the goal. So far from this evenings model runs we have taken a step forwards.

P.S It isn't tea leaves. I will explain but not at the moment as I don't want to put a jinx on the E,ly.

[kold weather]

Very true Paul those ensembles aren't great BUT in this set-up I wouldn't be all that surprised if the models slowly shunt everything westwards, thats whats happened with both of our last cold spells, both progged at first to be Euro highs but as the time got closer the models slowly backed off from that idea and lifted everything NW...I think thats a trend that we need to watch out for, could see an easterly much sooner then some think in that case...

However this time we don't have support from the Arctic so any evolution will take longer I suspect...but in this type of evolution the operational runs need to be watched closer then the ensembles, the ensembles will quite possibly follow the op runs, however its still very early days its gotta be said...

Could still quite easily end up in mild S/SW winds...but we shall see, any big warming in the Arctic like whats progged could well mean even if things do shift to milder for a time they may not be long lasting.

[NorthantsSnow]

Has anyone else had problems accessing the charts on Netweather today? Frames not loading, run slow to come out, etc etc. Regrettably I've had to switch to another source in the meantime, sorry guys.

This would be interesting to say the least if it occurred, but at 300hrs out it's 98% likely it won't.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

Edited January 12, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Thundery wintry showers]

The ECM 12z ensembles for London are just out:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

Not particularly inspiring to be honest, with the ECM one of the colder options.

They look nice for Berlin though!

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html?eps=berlin

ECM ensemble support looks similar to the last few runs- not great, but the operational is by no means an outlier at any point during the run.

[FENDER.]

Fair play to Dave, Looks like he made a great call, he stuck by his guns, even when the models didnt look so good. Well done Dave, perhaps you will reveal you secret, if the 6z continues the theme

[The Weather Yoda]

Fair play to Dave, Looks like he made a great call, he stuck by his guns, even when the models didnt look so good. Well done Dave, perhaps you will reveal you secret, if the 6z continues the theme

Its simple really, every winter he says it will happen and now and again it does

Sorry Dave, someone had to say it. Increasing support for cold to return next week from the models, whether it will be the cold, dank cloudy type or the very cold snowy type is still up in the air. Re Steve Ms comments regarding the Siberian High the charts showing it ridging westwards in early FI are something I haven't seen for around twenty years. Nice change to be looking east this winter

[casparjack]

I'm really liking the 00Z ECM today, by T168 we really seem to be pulling in an Easterly, by T192 it looks good, beyond T216 (I know it's FI) seems to be pulling in the cold uppers again.

Let's hope...

[Methuselah]

'Morning peeps...

Can we all stick to discussing the models, please? The weather will do whatever it wants. Can you ALL cut-out the personal attacks??

[Frosty.]

The 00z models are a mixed bag this morning, there are signs of a possible return to very cold weather from the east during next week but it's all beyond T+144 hours which is a murky timeframe to be relying on good things to happen but the gfs and ecm go for it and the ukmo seems to be shaping nicely at T+144 but the nogaps and gme don't buy it and the gem takes a long time to get there, I would say we are still no closer to the answer than we were yesterday but at least there is no sign of mild sw'lies returning at the moment.

[Nick F]

Morning all, 00z GFS seems the best of the bunch, with a cold easterly returning as early as next Tuesday as a cold pool moves W and NW off the near continent.

Key is the amplifying Atlantic trough at the end of Sunday and during Monday - GFS is a bit quicker than ECM with amplifying a deep trough with WAA aloft north across the UK building heights to our N and extending the Siberian ridge westwards, though this occurs only once a shortwave splits SE across the UK into the continent, UKMO keeps the shortwave over the N Sea so no easterly by Tuesday. ECM does get there eventually though but in FI. The other piece of the jigsaw to get the easterly, is for the amplifying Atlantic trough (shown by the blues on H500/SLP charts) to become negatively tilted (i.e. aligned NW-SE) - this will allow the trough and low pressure at the surface to undercut the ridge to the N and NE of the UK and drag that cold air west over the UK.

[MR EXTREMES]

Morning all, 00z GFS seems the best of the bunch, with a cold easterly returning as early as next Tuesday as a cold pool moves W and NW off the near continent.

Key is the amplifying Atlantic trough at the end of Sunday and during Monday - GFS is a bit quicker than ECM with amplifying a deep trough with WAA aloft north across the UK building heights to our N and extending the Siberian ridge westwards, though this occurs only once a shortwave splits SE across the UK into the continent, UKMO keeps the shortwave over the N Sea so no easterly by Tuesday. ECM does get there eventually though but in FI. The other piece of the jigsaw to get the easterly, is for the amplifying Atlantic trough (shown by the blues on H500/SLP charts) to become negatively tilted (i.e. aligned NW-SE) - this will allow the trough and low pressure at the surface to undercut the ridge to the N and NE of the UK and drag that cold air west over the UK.

intresting you say the cold may come back on tuesday because matt taylor bbc weather gave a interview about the snow were getting today or overnight.

and he said milder weekend then temps dropping on monday wonder what model hes been looking at :lol:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8455579.stm

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning! A definite trend this morning from ecm and gfs for very cold continental air to reach us at some point next week! Ok still a way to go, but I do remember TIETS saying that come midweek the models would be showing something very cold in the offing :lol: untill then ,wintry weather for some [our 9th day of lying snow and its snowing!] a slight warm up than the return to deep Winter perhaps! :lol:

Edited January 13, 2010 by ANYWEATHER

[TEITS]

Ver pleasing set of runs this morning. My favourite chart of the morning is the Cambs ensembles.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100113/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Yesterday I said keep an eye for a dip in the mean around the 20th. Well this has gone from a gentle dip yesterday to the mean resembling the drop of a rollercoaster!

This is still in the dodgy timeframe of between +144/+168 but im very happy with the trend thats appearing.

Edited January 13, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes Dave stuck to his guns and rightly so...some of us remainmed solid on this and also if model users look back to last week when GP mentioned to expect poor model performance coming up. I have been mentioning the blip and that models will quickly pick up on the signal that the jet will divert south and this will quickly develop. Models are really picking up on this and after the weekend another week of cold is on the cards, that I have confidence in as I think Jethro will remember that the cold spell [barr the blip] will last to Jan the 24th before a real breakdown.

Yesterday I highlighted a crucial area IMO, it was t96 or 120 and the 'bump' over the channel. I said that it will become more of a feature, a noticeable shortwave travelling along the channel/northern France and will signal the reset of colder conditions.

Look at the 00z, a definite pickup IMO. Oh big flakes and very good moderate snowfall here in Redhill.

[Frosty.]

The models are indicating heavy rain for the coming weekend with temps above 5c in most areas and higher in the sw so a steady thaw, perhaps a rapid thaw setting in for a few days so it will become very messy but then it might turn colder next week but not guaranteed by any means with model agreement still fairly patchy and since when could the gfs be relied upon in the T+144 range, it's a very dodgy model at the moment IMO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models are indicating heavy rain for the coming weekend with temps above 5c in most areas and higher in the sw so a steady thaw, perhaps a rapid thaw setting in for a few days so it will become very messy but then it might turn colder next week but not guaranteed by any means with model agreement still fairly patchy and since when could the gfs be relied upon in the T+144 range, it's a very dodgy model at the moment IMO.

They can't, but I believe the models are picking up on the signal for jet to kick south again by next week. The solar/lunar method says yes, lets see if the models and actual out turn agree. I believe its very much on and that the real breakdown won't be until 24th after a renewed cold shot.

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Weather-history]

That Siberian high is huge. If you follow the flow coming across the north European plain, it almost looks as though it is coming from Mongolia.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Frosty.]

They can't, but I believe the models are picking up on the signal for jet to kick south again by next week. The solar/lunar method says yes, lets see if the models and actual out turn agree. I believe its very much on and that the real breakdown won't be until 24th after a renewed cold shot.

BFTP

Hi Blast,

I noticed the gfs 00z has 2 cold shots in FI with the first blast then an attempted breakdown followed by another blast, a generally very wintry FI and I just heard John Hammond say it will turn much colder next week which shows high confidence at this range and I know that you and teits expect it to become v.cold next week so fingers crossed.

[cooling climate]

Excellent output this morning and with the northern hemisphere charts from the ECM and the GFS

showing a renewed -AO developing things are looking very very good.

I would not be at all surprised to see a very cold February with perhaps our coldest weather of the

winter still to come.

Weekend temperatures only around 6's and 7's for the east and then back to freezing or below for

the middle of next week, we shall see.

I must admit to being surprised to see the cold come back so quick if of course this does verify.

[Mikel Nimbus]

I suspect GFS is bringing the cold back to our shores a few days too early. The predicted -10 850's are not supported by any of the other GFS members on the 19th/20th and is a cold outlier at that stage. The operational run is probably over doing a short wave bringing in the colder air too soon then suddenly forcing it away to the north.

The general trend between members is promising for some colder air by the 21st. ECM has a similar evolution so all still to play for.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Mikel Nimbus