General Model Output Discussion

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Something we ALL can be guilty of. lol!

Most, but not all.

[R.P. McMurphy]

I don't really like Easterlies, never seems to bring any snow to the North West. Yes I am being greedy, but I'll take the cold over the Atlantic any day.

[nick sussex]

Increasing signs that a return to colder conditions are likely sometime next week. However, it could be the case that the GFS is being ultra progressive with the speed of the renewed colder weather. Only yesterday it was the least keen to return the colder weather, being keen to speed up the northern branch of the jetstream, and I think that in view of how erratic it can be it might be as well to wait and see what upcoming cross model opinion suggests.

It becomes to easy to have one favoured model when it shows what is hoped for! Something we ALL can be guilty of. lol!

However, much better signals than yesterday that something from the east is going to make its return in the near future. The only issue seems to be the timing and the depth of the cold pool that arrives. There is still a chance that the coldest air remains just to our east - there is no certainty in this respect yet.

I agree i think the gfs maybe a little too quick with its evolution, most of its ensembles on the 00hrs brought the cold in a few days later. The gfs 06hrs is plausible and not one of the outlandish gfs specials but for now i think the general view is that the cold will return sometime next week but more likely later on. Still waiting to see the latest ensembles for the gfs 06hrs run, i wonder if theres more support for its quick return of the cold. Also NOAA at least for the USA expect more energy going into the southern arm of the jet than the northern, if the same happens downstream in Europe regarding the split flow then it's very much game on for more cold and wintry weather.The latest gefs ensembles upto 180hrs still show the operational run as being one of the quickest to return the cold but with a little more support than the 00hrs run.

Edited January 13, 2010 by nick sussex

[kold weather]

The set-up progged also has the added benefit that even if its short the most likely way out of the evolution will be another attack from a cut-off low and it wouldn't shock me at all if thats how this evolves...

Ensembles not that keen on this being a long term evolution but then again this time yesterday they barely hinted at this evolution at all, as I said last night the models have constantly adjusted everything north and westwards with time, that should continue IMO.

[TEITS]

Increasing signs that a return to colder conditions are likely sometime next week. However, it could be the case that the GFS is being ultra progressive with the speed of the renewed colder weather. Only yesterday it was the least keen to return the colder weather, being keen to speed up the northern branch of the jetstream, and I think that in view of how erratic it can be it might be as well to wait and see what upcoming cross model opinion suggests.

It becomes to easy to have one favoured model when it shows what is hoped for! Something we ALL can be guilty of. lol!

However, much better signals than yesterday that something from the east is going to make its return in the near future. The only issue seems to be the timing and the depth of the cold pool that arrives. There is still a chance that the coldest air remains just to our east - there is no certainty in this respect yet.

Morning Tamara.

The GFS certainly is being progressive with the speed of the E,ly arriving but synoptically it actually makes sense. Often in these situations we see this upgrade and I wouldn't be surprised if this continues. What I mean by this is as the weekend approaches we're seeing less influence from the Atlantic which is why max temps are progged to be less cold rather than mild.

Here is the GEFS mean at +180.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-180.png?6

As for having a favourite model when it shows what I want. Well im certainly guilty of this and you know what im proud of it.

Edited January 13, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

TEITS, I said last night that the models will keep trending north and westwards, this process is occuring now within several synoptic set-ups that are being progged by the models.

What we are seeing on the models is very good, because the PV finally has re-organised itself again into something that resembles an average PV and yet we are still seemingly able to get into a blocking situation. I suspect with temps shoting up in the Stratosphere again soon the PV will weaken once more and possibly split and that huge high sat over a good chunk of Russia and Europe will be the perfect building blocks...

I'm now convinced this will be a historic winter....given what I'm seeing on the models any milder blip really will be a blip amongst cold spells.

KW

Please point me to this, very interested.

BFTP

[MR EXTREMES]

Increasing signs that a return to colder conditions are likely sometime next week. However, it could be the case that the GFS is being ultra progressive with the speed of the renewed colder weather. Only yesterday it was the least keen to return the colder weather, being keen to speed up the northern branch of the jetstream, and I think that in view of how erratic it can be it might be as well to wait and see what upcoming cross model opinion suggests.

It becomes to easy to have one favoured model when it shows what is hoped for! Something we ALL can be guilty of. lol!

However, much better signals than yesterday that something from the east is going to make its return in the near future. The only issue seems to be the timing and the depth of the cold pool that arrives. There is still a chance that the coldest air remains just to our east - there is no certainty in this respect yet.

very true but the ecm was also suggesting a push of cold last night?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Good Morning to you boys,

Yes, the milder interlude has got very much squeezed for this weekend. I think the illusion of the extent of the milder encroachment was more to do with the powering up of the jet stream and Polar vortex near Greenland that was suggested by the GFS yesterday. That had suggested the old problem of the cold air being pushed southwards from the block into central and then south eastern europe, as the jet flattened the high to the east on its northern flank, sinking it slightly southwards

As KW has just said, there has been an adjustment north westwards this morning. Seems to me that the ECM has stayed consistent with this one for several days now. Last weekend (on deepest FI time projection period) it was programming a long westward fetch from the Siberian High and every output since it has held the line in terms of suggesting the possibility of a renewed easterly next week.

Cold Regards!

Tamara

Edited January 13, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Steve Edgefield]

Increasing signs that a return to colder conditions are likely sometime next week. However, it could be the case that the GFS is being ultra progressive with the speed of the renewed colder weather. Only yesterday it was the least keen to return the colder weather, being keen to speed up the northern branch of the jetstream, and I think that in view of how erratic it can be it might be as well to wait and see what upcoming cross model opinion suggests.

It becomes to easy to have one favoured model when it shows what is hoped for! Something we ALL can be guilty of. lol!

However, much better signals than yesterday that something from the east is going to make its return in the near future. The only issue seems to be the timing and the depth of the cold pool that arrives. There is still a chance that the coldest air remains just to our east - there is no certainty in this respect yet.

Couldn't agree more - time to keep feet firmly on the ground until there is improved consistency between models and between runs. Interesting though and worth keeping tuned in.

[kold weather]

KW

Please point me to this, very interested.

BFTP

The stratopshere thread has all the information in there, its whats making me more confident in a colder solution for Feb.

Anyway the ensembles show very good agreement indeed upto 144hrs of the borad upper evolution with a weak cut-off low forcing an upper high to merge with the huge Scandi/Russian high and this should force a easterly, exactly how potent is uncertain though with the evolution it probably won't be too severe, but given how cold Europe has been and how snow locked it is don't be surprised if its rather colder then you'd normally expect...remember for once we really do have temps on our side across the channel, I can't remember the last time we had such an event...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Most, but not all.

I think we can, indeed, all be guilty of it sometimes, but some of us are far better at keeping it to a minimum than others.

The easterly is not set in stone by any means- the models could backtrack and I think Tamara's comment regarding caution is wise- but if we get as far as the ECM/GFS at T+144-T+168 there's only one way that evolution will be going... and it isn't towards anything remotely mild!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interesting to see that only Kold has noted the mid point onwards lack of support on the GFS.

So what do we do? Take the Op run with little support, and is commented on being the worst verified run of the day?

Are we not looking in to time periods that many (many many in fact) have said its pointless looking into?

I really am far from convinced at the moment, that a further cold spell, in terms of length to what we have just had, is more than an operational run.

[Duncan McAlister]

Interesting to see that only Kold has noted the mid point onwards lack of support on the GFS.

So what do we do? Take the Op run with little support, and is commented on being the worst verified run of the day?

Are we not looking in to time periods that many (many many in fact) have said its pointless looking into?

I really am far from convinced at the moment, that a further cold spell, in terms of length to what we have just had, is more than an operational run.

Ensembles do support a return to some duration of cold though as they take a massive dip next Wednesday to sub -5C

[sandstorm2]

Good morning all, the models are now showing a return to cold or very cold next week, still a bit early to say it is definite but as a lover of cold I am optimistic. Had a slight dose of pessimism couple of days ago but with the way the GFS and the ECM are trending there could be quite a bit more snow coming our way.

TEITS, when are you going to give us your forecasting secret that you mentioned yesterday?

SS2

[kold weather]

I think we can, indeed, all be guilty of it sometimes, but some of us are far better at keeping it to a minimum than others.

The easterly is not set in stone by any means- the models could backtrack and I think Tamara's comment regarding caution is wise- but if we get as far as the ECM/GFS at T+144-T+168 there's only one way that evolution will be going... and it isn't towards anything remotely mild!

I think any easterly is by far the most likely evolution eventually, we have the PV place in a good spot, as soon as we get any cut-off low forming we will get the up and over type evolution as a Azores high moves up over the UK then becomes absorbed into the Scandinavian high. We've seen it quite often in previous cooler winters, it happened a fair few times in 05-06 if I remember rightly.

As long as we get a cut-off low then with the other synoptics in place there is only one way this can evolve as you say TWS.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Ensembles do support a return to some duration of cold though as they take a massive dip next Wednesday to sub -5C

But as I said, not in terms of longevity (of course, some regional variation in this when looking at the ensembles).

The 06z is a difficult one to comment on, as most other major models only do (or publish) 00z and 12z results, so there is always going to be some speculation.

[Eugene]

Excellent output today, proves how dangerous it was for some to totally believe the models showing the atlantic taking over, hats off to those who see between the lines, with the cold still with us today and the past cold month you would have to back a quick return to the cold, its the form horse this winter.

[Frosty.]

yeah baby- 06z is special-

this special....( not quite as cold)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-162.png?6

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910206.gif

S

I always said the GFS 06z is the best run of the day

Confidence is growing for a reload from the east with that monster high edging closer. As for this weekend, it will become wet and windy but the rain may then turn to snow in the north & east as milder air to the west fails to take control but it will be a close run thing.

[Methuselah]

Excellent output today, proves how dangerous it was for some to totally believe the models showing the atlantic taking over, hats off to those who see between the lines, with the cold still with us today and the past cold month you would have to back a quick return to the cold, its the form horse this winter.

Aye, mate. Hats-off to the MetO for saying it (cold back next week) all along!! :wub:

[TEITS]

TEITS, when are you going to give us your forecasting secret that you mentioned yesterday?

SS2

Until what is showing at +168 is at +72. :lol:

Let me put it this way the sign I used was spot on for 1987, 1991. This is why i've remained confident because the sign is even more evident than Jan 87. I would go as far to say i've never seen anything like it and neither has my mother who was the first to mention it to me!

[MisfitDog3]

I'm not so sure why everyone thinks a cold medium to long term outlook is nailed on as such?! Some of the south east and southerly winds projected on a few of the models are coming from a long way south and even given they are heading over a cold continent there is a lot of warmth in the SE Med at the moment!

I also suspect the Atlantic isn't going to go back in its box without a struggle. The models are struggling. Just because they currently favour a cold future doesn't mean this state of affairs has changed chaps!!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Still no comments on the UKMO 00z fax chart on the second front approaching the UK. Looking at the radar, appears to be over n/w France at the moment, and looks (currently) quite intense.

[derrylynne]

Until what is showing at +168 is at +72. :lol:

Let me put it this way the sign I used was spot on for 1987, 1991. This is why i've remained confident because the sign is even more evident than Jan 87. I would go as far to say i've never seen anything like it and neither has my mother who was the first to mention it to me!

You are a Tease. Come on - spill it. rotfl...Not nice to keep us all in suspense. It is looking to me as though this promised mild is getting squeezed out. Is it possible it will not make it further than the far South West?

[gottolovethisweather]

I always said the GFS 06z is the best run of the day

Confidence is growing for a reload from the east with that monster high edging closer. As for this weekend, it will become wet and windy but the rain may then turn to snow in the north & east as milder air to the west fails to take control but it will be a close run thing.

Now that last bit I do believe could well happen. Whether it holds true for me, who is to say but the further north and east then game on. I think i'll be lucky to see 5c by the weekend in my location, what are the various models indicating in regard to Air Temp and DP profiles come the weekend?

The focus is definitely on the next 48-72 hours in my eyes and my bet is the reload, like it or not and purely gut feeling I suppose here. Is the upcoming period as previously set in stone as many suggest, again can someone with the knowledge confirm the expected temp profiles, I'll go check the models in the meantime.

Many Thanks to RJS, TEITS, JH, GP, SM etc. for their input in the days past and the days to come.

I'm loving this winter and it's got to be worth documenting for the history books.

STORMBOY

Edited January 13, 2010 by STORMBOY

[derrylynne]

This is actually looking quite scary

That blocking looks so big that I can imagine it threatening our summer, snow in May/June looks a very strong possibility this year now

A high in place there in Summer would give us a scorcher. The continent is very cold in winter - but hot in summer. pray for a scandi high in summer for a real BBQ summer - not meto style. laughs..