Model Output Discussion

[Blizzardo]

Cold and snowy looking GFS 0z with the mid atlantic high slightly further west and north maintaining the northerly a bit longer than on previous runs. A very brief milder interlude followed by a strong easterly.

[cooling climate]

The 0z GFS run is a ABSOLUTE STONKER of a run probably the best I have ever seen but

even this run could be surpassed over the coming days who knows.

From Scotland down the eastern half of the UK into East Anglia and parts of the southeast

from this Friday the temperature does not rise above 2c for the entire run.

Even though the northerly topples the east stays very cold.

T216 and its easterlies all the way. The control run in the ensembles gives its full support

to magnificent run which brings ice days, snow, frost, wind chill its got the lot.

excellent, excellent run.

[Hagler]

The 0z GFS run is a ABSOLUTE STONKER of a run probably the best I have ever seen but

even this run could be surpassed over the coming days who knows.

From Scotland down the eastern half of the UK into East Anglia and parts of the southeast

from this Friday the temperature does not rise above 2c for the entire run.

Even though the northerly topples the east stays very cold.

T216 and its easterlies all the way. The control run in the ensembles gives its full support

to magnificent run which brings ice days, snow, frost, wind chill its got the lot.

excellent, excellent run.

Stonker of a run yes but also deep into F1, lets see if the trend continues before getting to excited

[aspire27]

The 0z GFS run is a ABSOLUTE STONKER of a run probably the best I have ever seen but

even this run could be surpassed over the coming days who knows.

From Scotland down the eastern half of the UK into East Anglia and parts of the southeast

from this Friday the temperature does not rise above 2c for the entire run.

Even though the northerly topples the east stays very cold.

T216 and its easterlies all the way. The control run in the ensembles gives its full support

to magnificent run which brings ice days, snow, frost, wind chill its got the lot.

excellent, excellent run.

I presume when you say 2c thats just for the Northerly for the weekend? Not whats showing in FI, I presume that shows much colder air?

[cooling climate]

I presume when you say 2c thats just for the Northerly for the weekend? Not whats showing in FI, I presume that shows much colder air?

Yes that is just the max being shown, there are days much colder than this.

The ECM out to t168 looks very promising.

Edited January 26, 2010 by cooling climate

[Iceberg]

Definately a trend for cold in the ensembles, even more so in the GFS parallel GEFS.

As an aside a majorish upgrade for ECM today.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/horizontal_resolution_2009/#timetable

It will be interesting to see what difference this makes to the 12Z ECM. Also that ECM was NOT handling snow cover and albedo correctly until the 22nd of Jan, this has now been corrected.

There are some big differences in the 144 to 200T range on both the GFS and ECM wrt PV placement and the strength of the northern arm, which is making the resulting 196T+ range trend towards cold more.

The only fly today is the 00Z METO which introduces a larger warm sector Thursday night, making things too marginal for most of England, not just the SW and the short wave moves south.

[cooling climate]

ECM at t192 and it seem as if an easterly set up is imminent.

There will be a lot of happy cold winter weather lovers on here this morning.

The ECM t216 chart is excellent and the t240 should be a peach.

[Iceberg]

Yep, a very definately easterly, tbh I think an easterly is very likely from 168 onwards on the ECM, UKMET at 144 has a good chance of encouraging the easterly as well.

Still in FI and the models have not been particularly consistant again, also the easterly could well develop into just HP over us, but a very good set of models and ensembles for a signal of more prolonged cold.

[cooling climate]

Yep, a very definately easterly, tbh I think an easterly is very likely from 168 onwards on the ECM, UKMET at 144 has a good chance of encouraging the easterly as well.

Still in FI and the models have not been particularly consistant again, also the easterly could well develop into just HP over us, but a very good set of models and ensembles for a signal of more prolonged cold.

You may be right but if you look at the northern hemisphere charts that looks unlikely to me.

The ECM and the GFS are surprisingly similar at t240 as well.

[billy]

Amazing charts this morning . Maybe we still have the coldest part of winter still to come .

[PB22]

Very encouraging model output this morning, and thank goodness that high to the east is finally on its way! We will all finally get to see some sunshine later this week after days and days of non descript weather.

Short term, the northerly still very much on and pretty good agreement across the board for this. Thursday night and Friday remains the period to watch with all models indicating a feature running south across western areas, and the FAX charts even suggest another feature following the first one:

FRIDAY 00z: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.html

FRIDAY 12z: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.html

Rain probably for southwestern areas, but snow likely on the northern and eastern flanks and it will probably become a nowcast situation.

Longer term, and the trend from the models is fairly consistent for what may happen after the northerly. A spell of less cold weather seems probable for a time, but eyes will be on a rebuild of pressure to our northeast, which could well end up bringing an easterly as we go into February - GFS, ECM and GEM all suggest this:

GFS:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html

ECM:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2161.html

GEM:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem1681.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem2161.html

Once again, fascinating times and about time too after what seems to have been an age with that high currently to our east holding everything up.

[Methuselah]

New thread, folks:

[nick sussex]

Well what an interesting start to the day with the models trending to a potential cold easterly later, the key is that trough gets held over central Europe to stop the Atlantic high from moving eastwards. I certainly like the look of the UKMO at 144hrs which looks like developing a shortwave likely to run se'wards on the eastern flank of the high, it also has better heights to the ne.

Very much looking forward to seeing the ECM ensembles this morning, theres still quite alot of scatter for the key time period on the GEFS ensembles so we should bear this in mind. However all the models trend the same way which is a good sign.