General Model Output Discussion:

[Lewis]

I wish they could make model runs every 2 hours, i'm bored, all the works finished just twiddeling me thumbs waiting for the 12z.

In terms of snowfall, more or less a non-event accept for Scotland.

Day time temps 4-6c quite widely i think....

[Climate Man]

I may be half asleep but the Meto 6-15 reads like the GFS 0600 looks in my opinion.

[Weather-history]

This may have already been posted but I'm I reading this right, that the ECM ensembles for London suggest that the op run was one of the mildest members?

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

[yamkin]

Moscow WMC 00Z looks interesting. Here's 84h :cold:

[Duane S.]

I posted late last night after the incredible 00z ECM worried that energy off Greenland was simply being brushed aside way too easily (considering the recent cool stratosphere) and I am still of that thinking this morning.

I think we will get to an Easterly but like I said yesterday not as quickly as that. The GFS 06z may not be a million miles off.

[sandstorm2]

Moscow WMC 00Z looks interesting. Here's 84h :cold:

Aye, had a look at that myself, just love those Moscow charts, anybody know how accurate they are?

SS2

[yamkin]

Aye, had a look at that myself, just love those Moscow charts, anybody know how accurate they are?

SS2

Their model was going haywire a few weeks ago, but looks a lot better now.

Edited January 27, 2010 by yamkin

[Cloud 10]

ao.sprd2.gif (GIF Image, 600x800 pixels) - Scaled (65%)

Todays AO ensembles going well into negative territory,even more so than yesterday.

[danm]

This was posted by a member on TWO:

 

I emailed Met Office before lunch and got this very rapid response. Credit to them - the email reply came back in just over 1 hour. This should put this one to bed.

 Well done Tara (Weather Desk Advisor)

 

"The 6 to 15 day forecast issued at around 1130 each day, and is based on the 00Z model runs and ensembles.

It is produced by one person, but they do consult our Chief Forecaster and Medium Range Forecaster before

they are issued, so there is some team work involved.

 

I am not sure where people have got the idea that we use the 12Z runs, as they are out of date by that time.

It may be that many of the internet forums only look at GFS, as that goes out to 14 days, and they may see

that we are slow to follow to that model, but we look at much more information and need to take a balanced view."

[sandstorm2]

ao.sprd2.gif (GIF Image, 600x800 pixels) - Scaled (65%)

Todays AO ensembles going well into negative territory,even more so than yesterday.

Possibly the wrong thread, but when the AO is going negative does this mean that pressure is rising?

Don't know a great deal about this aspect of the models hence the question.

SS2

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

This was posted by a member on TWO:

 

I emailed Met Office before lunch and got this very rapid response. Credit to them - the email reply came back in just over 1 hour. This should put this one to bed.

 Well done Tara (Weather Desk Advisor)

 

"The 6 to 15 day forecast issued at around 1130 each day, and is based on the 00Z model runs and ensembles.

It is produced by one person, but they do consult our Chief Forecaster and Medium Range Forecaster before

they are issued, so there is some team work involved.

 

I am not sure where people have got the idea that we use the 12Z runs, as they are out of date by that time.

It may be that many of the internet forums only look at GFS, as that goes out to 14 days, and they may see

that we are slow to follow to that model, but we look at much more information and need to take a balanced view."

good to see that one being laid to rest. As much flak as the MO get, it would be incredible if they were using data that is >12 hours old to prepare a forecast. It has admittedly seemed on a few days this winter that their 6-15 dayer has been more reflective of the previous day's 12zs but that is presumably coincidence together with the fact that they are looking at the bigger picture.

[Iceberg]

ECM OPS does not have support for it's 190-240T range from it's ensembles in the 00Z run.

The jet going over the top of the high is at the top of the range...I feel a bit better knowing that. !

Here's the London ECM ensembles you can clearly see that the GFS 00Z ops run followed the mean more than ECM Ops run.

And ENS are the way to forecast beyond 144. I think people need to loose the hang up of detail beyond 144, the trend is still cold whether it takes an extra couple of days to get there or not is kind of irrelavent.

None of the models keeps any strength in the northern arm for long as soon as that goes the high moves north and cold weather comes in.

[Bobby]

This may have already been posted but I'm I reading this right, that the ECM ensembles for London suggest that the op run was one of the mildest members?

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

Definitely quite a big mild outlier. I think we will see better runs this evening.

[Southender]

Here's the London ECM ensembles you can clearly see that the GFS 00Z ops run followed the mean more than ECM Ops run.

And ENS are the way to forecast beyond 144. I think people need to loose the hang up of detail beyond 144, the trend is still cold whether it takes an extra couple of days to get there or not is kind of irrelavent.

None of the models keeps any strength in the northern arm for long as soon as that goes the high moves north and cold weather comes in.

As a newbie. Could you explain what these temps are? I'm guessing surface temps and not 850's (I hope so anyway!)

[Bobby]

As a newbie. Could you explain what these temps are? I'm guessing surface temps and not 850's (I hope so anyway!)

Yes those are surface temperatures.

[Southender]

Yes those are surface temperatures.

Cheers, that's a relief!

Also, what is the blue NCEP line?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Cheers, that's a relief!

Also, what is the blue NCEP line?

i belive the blue line is GFS red lin ecm

[Coast]

New thread for Model Output Discussion here: netweather.tv/model-output-discussion