General Model Output Discussion:

[bluearmy]

noaa cpc arent going with 12z ECM ens mean as they think the model showing anomolous heights from iceland to the midwest is overdone and should be more sw into the eastern seaboard. they go heavier with gefs - dont worry though, the gefs isnt too shabby anyway

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

as a matter of interest, the op ecm also shows the heights into the midwest, so if its representitve to the west, maybe its also to the east.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

speechless

[John Cox]

Hi Johncool.

About a 70% chance of some snow in Dublin on Saturday according to GFS, realistically I would say about 30% chance. It will be very cold for the weekend.

I would look to 8th Feb or around that time for a really cold chance with easterlies. This is a punt at the moment, but a gut instinct based on the GFS and ECM and others commenting here. Keep a close eye out for further developments and updates as time goes on.

Hey im in dublin ireland do you think we will see a return to snow and ice and if so when i dont think ireland will see much cold this weekend like 3 days of north west winds or north then west winds when will the east winds hit ireland

Edited January 26, 2010 by John Cox

[winterof79]

Without the knowledge of the Models , you would have no Idea there was any chance of an Easterly I think GP got his Mild Feb wrong , but he was only telling us what available data was showing at the time . Apart from this weekends Northerly though , I feel we all must not carried away. I have a feeling the 00z's in the morning will not be as good , as the Operationals are sometimes going to go with the Mider options.

That is precisely it snowmad,i am not knocking GP,even the available data has caused the best including exeter to come unstuck this year.I would suggest thats why the beeb and met are going 48 hrs at a time.Expect sudden changes in all forecasts.as you would with an unstable flow.

[nick sussex]

noaa cpc arent going with 12z ECM ens mean as they think the model showing anomolous heights from iceland to the midwest is overdone and should be more sw into the eastern seaboard. they go heavier with gefs - dont worry though, the gefs isnt too shabby anyway

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

as a matter of interest, the op ecm also shows the heights into the midwest, so if its representitve to the west, maybe its also to the east.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

speechless

Well at least its a choice between very cold or bitterly cold! Overall though we should be happy that both the GFS and ECM are showing easterlies. Will be intetesting to see what the UKMO do with the fax charts,some modification at 120hrs towards the ECM would be a good sign.

[shiver]

Well at least its a choice between very cold or bitterly cold! Overall though we should be happy that both the GFS and ECM are showing easterlies. Will be intetesting to see what the UKMO do with the fax charts,some modification at 120hrs towards the ECM would be a good sign.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

lol next ice age

[peterf]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

lol next ice age

thats a real help to us non dutch folk.

[Cloud 10]

noaa cpc arent going with 12z ECM ens mean as they think the model showing anomolous heights from iceland to the midwest is overdone and should be more sw into the eastern seaboard. they go heavier with gefs - dont worry though, the gefs isnt too shabby anyway

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

as a matter of interest, the op ecm also shows the heights into the midwest, so if its representitve to the west, maybe its also to the east.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

speechless

Those extended ecm ensembles are quite incredible,you just couldn't get a clearer signal for a cold spell unless it slapped you in the face with a cold wet haddock!

[hardcj]

well the 18z is out on here.....time for me to have a ponder though it!

[bluearmy]

thats a real help to us non dutch folk.

if you want, i'll not bother posting them then until the london ones appear in 90 mins .........

in a likely easterly flow, the dutch ens are very relevent to us uk folk

[MR EXTREMES]

Those extended ecm ensembles are quite incredible,you just couldn't get a clearer signal for a cold spell unless it slapped you in the face with a cold wet haddock!

i must admit there does seem to be a growing trend but will it wont it thats the million dollar question.

[Richard Lake]

GFS 18z trickly out - up to 24hrs.. to me it looks like the mild sector has been ever-so slightly shortened; cold air reaching northern scotland 6pm tomorrow night. 100miles further west and we would definitely see snow early hours of Thursday morning in central/eastern areas - GFS definitely showing snow for scotland overnight wed/thu clearing during thursday afternoon where less cold air slowly spreads west, but not clearing eastern areas until after dark.

Edited January 26, 2010 by rikki

[peterf]

if you want, i'll not bother posting them then until the london ones appear in 90 mins .........

in a likely easterly flow, the dutch ens are very relevent to us uk folk

chill i was joking lol.

[Optimus Prime]

Glacier Point has just released his updated forecast ideas for February;

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__st__170

[Jason T]

Evening all, what a change just looked at the 12z as just got in,MY MY well that bit of mild is like a black head between to thumbs nails AWESOME, 18z running cant wait. Would anyone agree that this if happens knocks the last cold spell for 6x6.

We could see some very cold weather indeed and lots of the white stuff LOTS.

Models well amazing.

[Southender]

Eyes down for the 18z wrist slasher!...

[Yeti]

UK Outlook for Sunday 31 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 9 Feb 2010:

Cold at first, with overnight frosts. Wintry showers likely on exposed northern and eastern coasts, but it should be drier and brighter elsewhere, particularly inland. Rain expected to spread from the west on Monday, with snow possible, particularly over hills and in the far north. Turning less cold in the west on Tuesday, with bright or sunny spells and wintry showers in the northeast. Drier conditions are likely further south, extending to most parts by Wednesday (3rd), with lighter winds but cold to near normal temperatures. The mainly dry weather with frost and fog is likely to continue for much of the rest of the period, with temperatures mostly below normal. However, a low risk of much colder conditions with wintry showers may develop at the end of the period.

Updated: 1234 on Tue 26 Jan 2010

The met office update today is looking more promising after this evening's runs.

where is steve murr? has he done a lord lucan?

Unsuprisingly the ecm operational was one of the colder solutions but not without support.Quite stunning ensembles actually.

Interestingly the control is also extremely cold so the op and the control (the highest resolutions?) both go for extensive and prolonged northern blocking.

Incredible charts tonight especially considering the doom and gloom that has been almost non-stop on here since the last flake of snow fell; we even had "winter's over" posts a few days back.

We're still a long way from the real deal but things are looking more and more positive every day, and what we are seeing is a trend for an initial northerly (the synoptics of which are remarkable in themselves considering recent winters) followed by the high toppling N and E above the trough over Europe, not only sustaining the cold spell but potentially delivering some really deep cold associated with the offshoot of the PV being advected west.

...Which I believe is what BFTP pointed out quite a while ago now!

[Upgrade]

I think we are on the verge of something quite sudden and special here. Surely? The cold just floods down and envelops us.

[bluearmy]

chill i was joking lol.

i was in two minds peter.............. and chose wrongly

solid NAEFS support for the evolutions advertised on the ops today though at a slower pace. signs of the trough settling in our area by T384. interestingly, GP just posted that he sees the atmosphere in a similar state to mid dec and we know what happened to the trough then. maybe freeze phase 3 will be a virtual repeat of nos 1 and 2 once heights rise to our north. (only with lower SST's so those who wondered what dec might have brought without anomolously high orth sea sst's could get the chance to find out)

[snowmadchrisuk]

Another downgrade from the 18z GFS for the snow on Friday , I wonder if the UKMO , ECM will come into line with this in the Morning.

Edited January 26, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[bluearmy]

i believe the ecm ens are also upgraded on the 12z - i hope there isnt a cold bias !!

[Snowstorm1]

Another downgrade from the 18z GFS for the snow on Friday , I wonder if the UKMO , ECM will come into line with this in the Morning.

I think its a slight upgrade as the milder air is slightly further south

Snowman 0697 it isnt really i admit this run is better for me slightly lol but its better further south aswell as the cold air gets their quicker slightly

Edited January 26, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[Richard Lake]

At 51hr signs that Friday afternoon may well deliver heavy snow North and East of the Pennies. I'll post later this run takes forever to become available doesn't it?

Yes SnowStorm1 I agree, but tbh we are closer to the event the finer details are now falling into place seemingly to our favour at this stage in the evolution.

EDIT: Friday afternoon is in fact showing widespread snow for everyone apart from the southwest; talking cornwall and devon here.

Edited January 26, 2010 by rikki

[weather eater]

W E true details will of course change and comparisons to rare winters should be made sparingly, BUT the evolution in January although different to some charts brought incredible cold.

BFTP

It was indeed very cold, at least for a time and it continued pretty cold, still is in fact, there's still lots of snow cover on the higher hills to the east of my house. but the real events never quite matched some of the evolutions shown by various model outputs, we had some good falls and snow cover that stayed on the ground for a long while, but no exceptional snow falls, not here at any rate. Some of todays outputs are about as good as it gets, but still projections, changes will occur and I rather suspect not for the better. I much prefer the way this northerly is evolving, most members other than yourself, GP and myself didnt even seem to take it into account until only a few days ago, all of a sudden, big upgrade everybody is sitting up and taking notice. Fantasy easterlys that only really get going out in FI make me suspicious, boy I hope Im wrong.

Edited January 26, 2010 by weather eater

[January Snowstorm]

I think with all the excitement about FI we are at risk of not seeing the potential this wkd has in store. With continuous upgrades with every run, this wkd is starting to look very wintry!!

[Frosty.]

As GP said in the technical thread, the scandi trough looks to be edging west on the GFS 18z and it seems to indicate heavy snow potential in the north east of the uk especially, blizzard conditions maybe.