General Model Output Discussion:

[weather eater]

Struth, has the ECM been on a night out with the GFS pub run? I never though I would see another chart to match an archive chart from 1963, but the ECM projects and easterly from Siberia to Canada.

Infact I cant find a better synoptic set-up from the 63 archives. This would be treading new ground in the mod** er* if this came off.

lol, the forum computer won't let me type m o d e r n e r a.

All very nice, however the difference is that 63 or 47 for that matter actually happened, the models no matter how good are just showing projections. I rather feel things are getting out of hand. and we should just get northerly in the bag first. I think if we cast our minds back to the pre Christmas and post Christmas spells we saw lots of projections with fantasy synoptics, 47 was mentioned then, with lots of posts exclaiming the best runs anyone had ever seen etc. What we ended up with although very good, was rather watered down from some of those fantasy evolutions. Speculation is one thing but I think some mistakenly think its in the bag, who knows it could be get better, but it will be a first if what we get is as good as these fantasy projections.

Edited January 26, 2010 by weather eater

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I had in my mind that the period we enter was a peak energy period and that we would see a deep LP cross the UK well I now am sitting up again because the models showed nothing until now. We are in a situation where the models are playing catchup as the solar signals indicated this development...as we see today the models are 'suddenly' showing the evoution into Feb. I think if this develops it could be a very tasty feature indeed....and pretty enjoyable too seeing the p... take from Tractor.

I have confidence of a cold to very cold pattern now being in the bag...its all about the detail. The jet is going to be south and so a prolonged cold spell is there to be had. Magnificent ECM by the way and thanks you to certain posters, most kind.

W E true details will of course change and comparisons to rare winters should be made sparingly, BUT the evolution in January although different to some charts brought incredible cold.

BFTP

Edited January 26, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bobby]

Wow, ECM = :blink:

That'd be something that would rival what we've already had this winter, maybe even better it. However I suppose the only direction from here is downgrades because it doesn't get any better than the ECM.

[winterof79]

I agree they are like classic archive charts from 1947 & 1963,and shows what is possible with a link up. I would like to know whether GP thinks those FI charts are possible to achieve.

To be fair Frosty,you can consult GP as much as you like and i bow to his superior knowledge.Even he saw a milder February a short while ago.This winter should serve to teach all of us,including the meto,that the weather will outside short/medium term do as it pleases.That is part and parcel of meteorology.A few on here could well do just to sit back a little and study before forecasting.The model output is seriously tending towards a major weather event which may envelope what some of us have already seen this winter.

[bluearmy]

has steve m been abducted by aliens?

will be interesting to see just how big an outlier the 12z ecm is in holland and just how cold it gets

[chris78]

quick newby question. With people saying we havnt seen charts mike this since 47 does that mean we havnt seen an outcome like this or the charts hace not even predicted such extreme cold before? For me theres a big difference

[yamkin]

I'm amazed with doom and gloom 'downgrades' 'caution' 'it won't happen' etc.....This type synoptic set up has occurred before, so it can occur again, hence the ECM 12Z.

GME 12Z is looking good too :shok: :cold: :blink:

[West Sussex Kate]

Really exciting stuff!!!! If it beats our 6" of snow we had 3 weeks ago in *Balmy Sussex* then bring it on!!

[Frosty.]

Yes you're right, thats the problem when the ECM comes out with such stunning output, it's hard to top that so now people will expect too much. Personally the GFS evolution looks more plausible and it's not often you hear me say that! Anyway its nice at least to see a good trend this evening but we' should bear in mind the UKMO output which although good couldn't develop as quickly as the ECM and shows that things are much more on a knife edge than perhaps people think.

Amazingly, despite the mostly brilliant model outlook for coldies, i'm still not sure how potent this Northerly will be yet, the bbc charts on tv hardly showed any coastal showers in a gale force N'ly, must be a computer glitch, a distinct lack of white on the charts.

[beccaboo]

Hello All!!!

I am still fairly new to all of this, can anybody say 'when' we are likely to hit the next cold spell/snow event?!

[Polar Continental]

Indeed Paul I can see why you would have trouble finding a similiar 63 chart to tonights ECM. This is why we need to go back to 1947.

Here is a chart from 1947 showing a long E,ly train.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470218.gif

Do you know i've just looked through Feb 47 and I would actually say the 12Z ECM is better!

Indeed Dave, I think this projected ECM chart would be very hard indeed to top. Thanks for the 1947, I new I had seen something simlar from the classic winters, but couldn’t remember exactly where, but as you say, the ECM looks even better, I suppose we can only come down from this, time will tell now.

All very nice, however the difference is that 63 or 47 for that matter actually happened, the models no matter how good are just showing projections. I rather feel things are getting out of hand. and we should just get northerly in the bag first. I think if we cast our minds back to the pre Christmas and post Christmas spells we saw lots of projections with fantasy synoptics, 47 was mentioned then, with lots of posts exclaiming the best runs anyone had ever seen etc. What we ended up with although very good, was rather watered down from some of those fantasy evolutions. Speculation is one thing but I think some mistakenly think its in the bag, who knows it could be get better, but it will be a first if what we get is as good as these fantasy projections.

Exactly weather eater, that is why I use the word ‘projects’ and you are quite correct in being cautious here. As I mentioned above, only time will tell now.

The evolution after the northerly will be watched very closely, the models have stepped away from the normal toppler scenario, so the fist tentative steps towards and eastery are being taken.

[snowmadchrisuk]

To be fair Frosty,you can consult GP as much as you like and i bow to his superior knowledge.Even he saw a milder February a short while ago.This winter should serve to teach all of us,including the meto,that the weather will outside short/medium term do as it pleases.That is part and parcel of meteorology.A few on here could well do just to sit back a little and study before forecasting.The model output is seriously tending towards a major weather event which may envelope what some of us have already seen this winter.

Without the knowledge of the Models , you would have no Idea there was any chance of an Easterly :blink: I think GP got his Mild Feb wrong , but he was only telling us what available data was showing at the time . Apart from this weekends Northerly though , I feel we all must not carried away. I have a feeling the 00z's in the morning will not be as good , as the Operationals are sometimes going to go with the Mider options.

[Essan]

ECM is the first run of the upgraded model. Tests indicate it's more reliable for the 5-7 day time period (especially for 850hPa temps). Interesting :blink:

[aien aristeuein]

well the chatter tonight has got me off my backside and join the forum as a new member after a year of watching from the sidelines.

hope I can make a useful contribution both with the imminent return of real cold and in the longer term.

short term I am very curious to see how Thursday / Friday will pan out in terms of precipitation type and how much.

after that the models seem to be pointing towards something verging on severe wintriness from the north, then north east then east.

Aien, hitchin herts

[bluearmy]

noticed that sylvain has updated meteociel's ecm page to link to meteogroup ens + weerplaza ens. note that meteogrop ens update much later than the dutch ones (after 11pm)

[Cloud 10]

UK Outlook for Sunday 31 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 9 Feb 2010:

Cold at first, with overnight frosts. Wintry showers likely on exposed northern and eastern coasts, but it should be drier and brighter elsewhere, particularly inland. Rain expected to spread from the west on Monday, with snow possible, particularly over hills and in the far north. Turning less cold in the west on Tuesday, with bright or sunny spells and wintry showers in the northeast. Drier conditions are likely further south, extending to most parts by Wednesday (3rd), with lighter winds but cold to near normal temperatures. The mainly dry weather with frost and fog is likely to continue for much of the rest of the period, with temperatures mostly below normal. However, a low risk of much colder conditions with wintry showers may develop at the end of the period.

Updated: 1234 on Tue 26 Jan 2010

The met office update today is looking more promising after this evening's runs.

where is steve murr? has he done a lord lucan?:blink:

Unsuprisingly the ecm operational was one of the colder solutions but not without support.Quite stunning ensembles actually.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Cloud 10

[Jayces]

I have a question about the computer models in general though it may not belong here and apologies for that.

There are a number of them out there and they obviously do their best to guess what may happen with similar results though the farther out they go the more the results vary.

Now, do all the models use one set of criteria to reach their conclusion or do they programme lots of different variables to reach a number of possible outcomes and then someone chooses the most likely outcome?

Why don't models show a number of possible outcomes depending on certain variables, or do they do this and just choose the most likely one based on experience?

Also why after 50 or so years of computer technology being around is FI such a short distance away, are there just too many variables to predict weather accuratly beyond a few days?

[Frosty.]

To be fair Frosty,you can consult GP as much as you like and i bow to his superior knowledge.Even he saw a milder February a short while ago.This winter should serve to teach all of us,including the meto,that the weather will outside short/medium term do as it pleases.That is part and parcel of meteorology.A few on here could well do just to sit back a little and study before forecasting.The model output is seriously tending towards a major weather event which may envelope what some of us have already seen this winter.

I hope we are, I really don't want this winter to end and the charts today from the gfs and ecm are potentially spectacular in FI and BFTP's lrf has been excellent again so fingers crossed. :blink:

[kold weather]

I think thats the coldest ECM run I've ever seen, quite mental how extreme it goes with the northern blocking, similar to the GFS though on that front interestingly.

The ensembles for the ECM however shows that at times the ECM was the coldest run of all the members...

12z ECM probably would give some very low maxes indeed, probably widespread -2/3/4C once snow is on the ground which I'm sure there'd be at least some if that came off.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Without the knowledge of the Models , you would have no Idea there was any chance of an Easterly :blink: I think GP got his Mild Feb wrong , but he was only telling us what available data was showing at the time . Apart from this weekends Northerly though , I feel we all must not carried away. I have a feeling the 00z's in the morning will not be as good , as the Operationals are sometimes going to go with the Mider options.

Indeed, and GP has been more than ready to update with changes if necessary which has been excellent. I think the teles respond to forcing from solar magnetic and lunar forcing hence why I did suggest and pick up on a potential cold Feb earlier. What I have found with the theory of RJS and the experimental forecasting by GP is that they do pick up on synoptic /detail much more than I can...and so can a few others on here too. There is certainly room on here for different methods and indeed a blend gets the right call.

I LOVE THE ECM

On a positive too re ECM run at times being the coldest member....I don't think this country can get colder than that run so anything a little less would be incredibly cold.

BFTP

Edited January 26, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[snowmadchrisuk]

I have a question about the computer models in general though it may not belong here and apologies for that.

There are a number of them out there and they obviously do their best to guess what may happen with similar results though the farther out they go the more the results vary.

Now, do all the models use one set of criteria to reach their conclusion or do they programme lots of different variables to reach a number of possible outcomes and then someone chooses the most likely outcome?

Why don't models show a number of possible outcomes depending on certain variables, or do they do this and just choose the most likely one based on experience?

Also why after 50 or so years of computer technology being around is FI such a short distance away, are there just too many variables to predict weather accuratly beyond a few days?

The Operational of a Model run will start off with the Current State of the atmosphere as it is right now and go from there. The only exception to this is the Ensembles with half set negative and half set positive from initial data. Also the Ensembles and the control runs are lower resolution to the operational . The operational is also lower resolution after +180 hours.

Indeed, and GP has been more than ready to update with changes if necessary which has been excellent. I think the teles respond to forcing from solar magnetic and lunar forcing hence why I did suggest and pick up on a potential cold Feb earlier. What I have found with the theory of RJS and the experimental forecasting by GP is that they do pick up on synoptic /detail much more than I can...and so can a few others on here too. There is certainly room on here for different methods and indeed a blend gets the right call. Also to top it off them Ensembles are for 2m Temps , and these can vary greatly from City to City let alone country to country .

I LOVE THE ECM

On a positive too re ECM run at times being the coldest member....I don't think this country can get colder than that run so anything a little less would be incredibly cold.

BFTP

Exactly of course the ECM is going to be the Coldest member , Only right you can't get colder than that :blink:

I also think that many of us pay to much attention to them ECM Ensembles as they are not for the UK (Unless they throw in the odd freebie) You only have to look at the GFS Ensembles to see how different they can be from Scotland to England let alone in the Netherlands. There also 2m Temps we look at and we all know these can vary greatly from City to City,, let alone Country to Country .

Edited January 26, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[Ben_Cambs]

IMO its truly amazing how this has come about. 4 days ago it was only going to be a brief notherly and then toppled, followed by Westerlies. But it has changed so much! If GFS 18z continues the trend then something spectacular might arise....

[Geordiesnow]

Fantastic ECM tonight as it keeps the recent trend of linking the Azores high with the height rises which produces some spectacular results although caution must be taken as we could easily be on the receiving end of any mild weather than cold or the whole thing could not even develop at all!

Regarding that low that drops down from Norway, it looks great but it would appear to contain a mild sector(as you would sort of expect) in the centre of the low so if i have to be fussy, i would like it somewhere like the UKMO is showing but this could deliver alot of PPN nonetheless, one to watch perhaps? If that the models keep to the trend.

Interesting output but some have to stop thinking this is nailed on. I think the height rises to the North are more likely to happen but whether they affect our weather we won't know for a good few days yet.

[johncoolj]

Hey im in dublin ireland do you think we will see a return to snow and ice and if so when i dont think ireland will see much cold this weekend like 3 days of north west winds or north then west winds when will the east winds hit ireland

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm looks lovely but remember fi is fi and is not to be trusted.

and it is only one run there is just as much a chance it could all collapse in a day or two,

but id like to see what gp thinks of tonights outputs,

i do think the models ie,

the ecm is a little ott and its likely it wont be like what where seeing tonight.

but saying this nothing mild in the realiable timeframe.