General Model Output Discussion:

[Iceni]

Yes the +216/+240 are indeed very rare charts like I said this morning about the GFS 0Z/06Z.

Many call the Greenland HP the holy grail of winter synoptics but in my opinion the holy grail is when you have blocking extending from Siberia all the way across to Greenland. This is what the ECM shows which is why we have E,lys from Siberia to near Canada!

Members take note what you are seeing on tonights ECM is extremely rare and hardly ever seen. These are very much like Feb 1947 and this isn't me ramping just telling it as it is. You simply couldn't draw better synoptics!

Wow! I'm lost for words… let's hope it verifies and why shouldn't it? (speaking as an old '63-er)

[Uncle_Barty]

It's still a long way off in weather terms and it's never 'in the bag' or 'nailed on' until it arrives. Plenty of time for downgrades (and upgrades!) and backtracks and a lot is down to detail.

Certainly looks good for coldies next week IF it all verifies.

[igloo]

Yes the +216/+240 are indeed very rare charts like I said this morning about the GFS 0Z/06Z.

Many call the Greenland HP the holy grail of winter synoptics but in my opinion the holy grail is when you have blocking extending from Siberia all the way across to Greenland. This is what the ECM shows which is why we have E,lys from Siberia to near Canada!

Members take note what you are seeing on tonights ECM is extremely rare and hardly ever seen. These are very much like Feb 1947 and this isn't me ramping just telling it as it is. You simply couldn't draw better synoptics!

very rare charts indeed but the chances of this verifying are about 10% so i would expect BIG downgrades shortly

[80sWeather]

Jesus christ has someone hacked into all of the models and altered them for fun,never seen such a change over 24 hours, JH and BFTP mentioned changes but this is just incredible.

[Southender]

Wow what stunning output today. Chances of it verifying must be slim though. Remember we are a small island and the margin for error is minute. Lets see these charts at the weekend, then we can begin to get a little excited. Until then, expect another rollercoaster as the models struggle with the various features that can send us to heaven or indeed to the samaritans.

[January Snowstorm]

Yes truly remarkable charts to be sure esp the ECM

As someone else pointed out we look like running into an immediate cold spell now after the starter course this wkd.

In it's own right Sundays event will be very interesting,I mean a low moving down fron Northern Scandi with cold air embedded should deliver!!

[yamkin]

Alll

All 6 days away and the ECM 192 chart although supporting cold could also sink as well as GFS chart........Very dangerous ground here..............

We have seen this Easterly North Easterly before and it disintegrated before our eyes

Be careful cold lovers..........I only see downgrades

Regards,

CV

I can quite understand there could be downgrades, but there could be upgrades instead. Remember, what we are seeing is rare as TEITS has stated and has occurred before. ECM 12Z is simply amazing tonight :cold:

[cooling climate]

Yes the +216/+240 are indeed very rare charts like I said this morning about the GFS 0Z/06Z.

Many call the Greenland HP the holy grail of winter synoptics but in my opinion the holy grail is when you have blocking extending from Siberia all the way across to Greenland. This is what the ECM shows which is why we have E,lys from Siberia to near Canada!

Members take note what you are seeing on tonights ECM is extremely rare and hardly ever seen. These are very much like Feb 1947 and this isn't me ramping just telling it as it is. You simply couldn't draw better synoptics!

This is true enough what you say Teits but the Greenland high is normally as rare as hens teeth most winters. What

we are seeing you normally only see in the severest of winters like you say 47,63 so nobody talks of it.

These synoptics are rarer than Dodo's

Edited January 26, 2010 by cooling climate

[Frosty.]

ECM at t216 is an incredible chart. How cold that would be and snowy well, use

your imagination I suppose.

I agree they are like classic archive charts from 1947 & 1963,and shows what is possible with a link up. I would like to know whether GP thinks those FI charts are possible to achieve.

[TEITS]

Alll

All 6 days away and the ECM 192 chart although supporting cold could also sink as well as GFS chart........Very dangerous ground here..............

We have seen this Easterly North Easterly before and it disintegrated before our eyes

Be careful cold lovers..........I only see downgrades

Regards,

CV

Evening CV.

Worth adding though that between +72 & +168 the ECM is also a belter for us coldies. What the GFS/ECM have shown tonight is the N,ly changing into an E,ly so we don't see a brief milder spell.

As for downgrades well to be honest it would be very difficult for the ECM to improve on tonights 12Z. However even a downgrade from the 12Z could still bring plenty of snowfall and cold temps if this makes any sense.

Whilst im not assuming the charts at +168 and beyond will come off. I am however very excited at the overall trend from the ECM/GFS.

[Polar Continental]

Struth, has the ECM been on a night out with the GFS pub run? I never though I would see another chart to match an archive chart from 1963, but the ECM projects and easterly from Siberia to Canada.

Infact I can’t find a better synoptic set-up from the 63 archives. This would be treading new ground in the mod** er* if this came off.

lol, the forum computer won't let me type m o d e r n e r a.

[asnowyclassic]

Look East weather stated significant snow for thursday - sorry wrong thread!!!

[TEITS]

Struth, has the ECM been on a night out with the GFS pub run? I never though I would see another chart to match an archive chart from 1963, but the ECM projects and easterly from Siberia to Canada.

Infact I can’t find a better synoptic set-up from the 63 archives. This would be treading new ground in the mod** er* if this came off.

lol, the forum computer won't let me type m o d e r n e r a.

Indeed Paul I can see why you would have trouble finding a similiar 63 chart to tonights ECM. This is why we need to go back to 1947.

Here is a chart from 1947 showing a long E,ly train.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470218.gif

Do you know i've just looked through Feb 47 and I would actually say the 12Z ECM is better!

Look East weather stated significant snow for thursday - sorry wrong thread!!!

Rain it is then.

Edited January 26, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Iceni]

Struth, has the ECM been on a night out with the GFS pub run? I never though I would see another chart to match an archive chart from 1963, but the ECM projects and easterly from Siberia to Canada.

Infact I can't find a better synoptic set-up from the 63 archives. This would be treading new ground in the mod** er* if this came off.

lol, the forum computer won't let me type m o d e r n e r a.

Ensembles would suggest a mega high. Won't it be fun?

[Polar Front]

I wish the ecm went further out!

That is a 1963/1947 set up!! AWESOME!

[Altostratus]

Yes the +216/+240 are indeed very rare charts like I said this morning about the GFS 0Z/06Z.

Many call the Greenland HP the holy grail of winter synoptics but in my opinion the holy grail is when you have blocking extending from Siberia all the way across to Greenland. This is what the ECM shows which is why we have E,lys from Siberia to near Canada!

Members take note what you are seeing on tonights ECM is extremely rare and hardly ever seen. These are very much like Feb 1947 and this isn't me ramping just telling it as it is. You simply couldn't draw better synoptics!

I’d agree with you about the holy grail being the GL/Siberia link-up. It has only happened a few times in the last 100 years. Feb 47 is the classic example, as you say. I think it may have also happened in Jan 1940 - the Thames froze over that year I believe. To get a repeat of Feb 47, we’d need the block to become completely cut off from the main circulation, with all energy going south, resulting in full undercutting – this isn’t being shown just yet, but the building blocks are in place with that elongated omega block. Make no bones about it, if this output verifies, a sustained period of very cold weather would ensue. It would certainly be a great help with getting that low Feb CET.

[Richard Lake]

Although the accuracy is very dubious on the free Snow Precipitation types charts it does appear there will be alot of snow around friday onwards.

Purely for fun I post this, but there are so many one images I could have taken throughout the 12z GFZ, this is the 384z ha

:cold: :cold:

I must admit I felt that the ECM would be a huge disappointment today, but wow.... *speechless*

Edited January 26, 2010 by rikki

[nick sussex]

Good grief did EITS programme the ECM this evening! That output is remarkable, amazing really but i'm a bit wary given it's just been updated with new resolutions for its later output.

My advice pretend you didn't see its FI output!

Edited January 26, 2010 by nick sussex

[waynetheweatherman]

Im trying to understand these charts a little bit more, having just looked at the one with the 1947/63 esk to them.

How likely do we think they would come off in this day in age?. Those years were serious, as ya granny says:whistling:

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I'm absolutely stunned and pretty scared with those charts if this comes off I dread to think how we would cope, lessons learnt from the earlier Deep Freeze I hope. OMG

[Frosty.]

Good grief did EITS programme the ECM this evening! That output is remarkable, amazing really but i'm a bit wary given it's just been updated with new resolutions for its later output.

My advice pretend you didn't see its FI output!

The only way is down from that run but it would represent the severest spell of the winter so far which is saying something as this winter is already a classic even if the remainder of it was mild which it won't be.

[cooling climate]

The charts on offer tonight really would bring the wrong type of snow (refering to the 91 spell).

Just this morning after viewing the 0z GFS charts I said to Iceberg it was the best run I had

seen but that you never know there might be even better to come and WOW just 12 hours

later.

This upcoming freeze could very well have its own place in the record books.

[John Snow]

Its still 168-240 hrs away and anything beyond 96 these days must be considered FI so I am not taking ECM 12z too seriously at the moment but if it comes off I hope there are enough of HM Forces that are not in Afghanistan as they are going to be needed here in the UK

Looks promising though, can't imagine an easterly from Siberia to Canada is going to disappear just like that

[nick sussex]

The only way is down from that run but it would represent the severest spell of the winter so far which is saying something as this winter is already a classic even if the remainder of it was mild which it won't be.

Yes you're right, thats the problem when the ECM comes out with such stunning output, it's hard to top that so now people will expect too much. Personally the GFS evolution looks more plausible and it's not often you hear me say that! Anyway its nice at least to see a good trend this evening but we' should bear in mind the UKMO output which although good couldn't develop as quickly as the ECM and shows that things are much more on a knife edge than perhaps people think.

[Cheese Rice]

Amazing ECM output, if that did come of as shown that could be the worst (best ) cold spell since records began. I think we are long overdue a mega freeze, one of which would match or beat 47.

I think most would cope with a 1947 style winter, I would be able to, even in the 96 (95?) snow event there was 60cm of lying snow and it didn't cause too much trouble.