General Model Output Discussion:

[J10]

Some very promising charts tonight, and ECM looks good out to T+144. As ever though caution is needed, but perhaps not quite so much this winter.

[cooling climate]

I am surprised at some of the more experienced posters on here with their views tonight.

Look at the northern hemisphere charts they will tell you what is going to happen not some

little shortwave that may or may not move in the right direction.

The Cold is coming west, that is the bottom line.

Everything else will move accordingly but the cold is coming west.

[kold weather]

ECM actually takes it all so far west the low could actually become a hinderence rather then a help, how ironic would that be, because it could sit there and prevent the easterly flow from reaching most of the UK....

However this is a VERY good ECM run, 168hrs shows a very cold atmosphere present with decent pressure over the Arctic....this is exactly the trend we wanted to see...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The ECM 144 hours is very wintry! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0

A good deal better than the UKMO, with the Atlantic systems unable to progress eastwards!

Karyo

yes my friend i will hopefully be seeing you again soon on the NW regional thread!

ecm looks very very nice,nothing mild out to 144h/

ecm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sorry mods for the ramp but look at it at 144h

its AMAZING.

[Iceberg]

Yep ECM 168 is a peach, I really do think that the building blocks are as early as 120 to prolong the cold after this weekends northly.

[yamkin]

Very impressive ECM 12Z 144h & NOGAPS 12Z 144h :cold:

[kold weather]

I agree Iceberg, we can know whether a run will be good as early as the charts between 120-144hrs, as long as they are good we should get into a cold evolution one way or the other eventually...todays runs are taking very much the fast route to the point where the northerly cold spell and the modelled next one merge into one!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I don't think anyone, if they were to be honest, expected the ECM 12z

Will the other models pick up this new twist?

Another way to get to the easterly evolution - a very interesting way too

The guidance up to now has been that the models might be being over progressive in terms of getting to the easterly

The GFS and now especially the ECM have taken that a stage further this evening!

Edited January 26, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[kold weather]

WOW....

thats all that needs to be said about the 192hrs chart, exceptional chart that one!

[Altostratus]

There seems to be quite a consensus from both the ECM and GEM at around 144 of sending less energy into the northern arm of the jet. I would think this bodes well for any cold spell.

Yes, it is an encouraging trend so far. The usual caveats apply though. In terms of modelling, we saw similar things being forecast in the medium term, for the previous failed easterly attempt. The models will only really be able to pin this down until within T+96. The ECM correctly predicted the last failed easterly, while the GFS and UKMO underestimated the strength of the northern branch. It is certainly a good sign that the ECM likes this easterly evolution - for now, anyway.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Very impressive ECM 12Z 144h & NOGAPS 12Z 144h :cold:

Nogaps would very likely not come off like that mate , and I don't like it at all as there is no blocking present anywhere on that chart . Ecm on the other hand ... Smashing .

[Cloud 10]

i must say, i do like the ecm upgrade

Blimey!

So much for topplers!

Now thats what i call northern blocking!

Edited January 26, 2010 by Cloud 10

[Iceberg]

IT really needs to be seen in all it's glory by looking at the n.Hemisphere view.

Siberian high at 168, ridging over scandy, WAA, then at 192T the high links up fully with Iceland and Greenland, forcing the Jet under.

All very believable given the 120-144 Charts as KW said.

The only caveat I have with this is the modelling of the High as it crosses over the Arctic circle pre 168, but this is being really picky as nothing really can go wrong.

[cooling climate]

ECM at t216 is an incredible chart. How cold that would be and snowy well, use

your imagination I suppose.

[Altostratus]

This is like something you see in the archives from those historic winters:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

[loophole]

Yikes- That ECM 192 chart is something else!!

[NorthantsSnow]

Quite a run from the ECM. I think I need a bit of a lie down after that.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recmnh2401.gif

The Big Freeze back on early Feb?!

[Iceberg]

ECM 12Z brings alot of snow

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!228!Europe!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2010012612!!/

The above link freebie shows the precip from the 12Z run.

This is the all new enhanced ECM btw and if it produces charts like this, they should have done it months ago. !

[snowmadchrisuk]

IT really needs to be seen in all it's glory by looking at the n.Hemisphere view.

Siberian high at 168, ridging over scandy, WAA, then at 192T the high links up fully with Iceland and Greenland, forcing the Jet under.

All very believable given the 120-144 Charts as KW said.

The only caveat I have with this is the modelling of the High as it crosses over the Arctic circle pre 168, but this is being really picky as nothing really can go wrong.

It's the Weather ... Something can always go wrong ! . These are pretty amazing Charts currently being modeled though .

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes, it is an encouraging trend so far. The usual caveats apply though. In terms of modelling, we saw similar things being forecast in the medium term, for the previous failed easterly attempt. The models will only really be able to pin this down until within T+96. The ECM correctly predicted the last failed easterly, while the GFS and UKMO underestimated the strength of the northern branch. It is certainly a good sign that the ECM likes this easterly evolution - for now, anyway.

The ECM takes the low off the Norweigan coast all the way south down the east coast and into the continent with the biting cold easterly on the back of it. The GFS doesn't sink the low pressure all the way south and keeps it near the Baltic and the ridge evolves up over the UK to connect with the heights to the NE to get to an easterly that way

We really need to see how this evolves around t120 to t144 in terms of getting agreement on the exact evolution first of all. But the ECM does underpin that confidence that was talked about earlier in terms of getting to a very cold easterly.

But, at the risk of sounding boring to one or two who think that it is already in the bag, I would suggest that full agreement in terms of the exact way the pattern goes forward is needed first before getting too carried away.

[Cloud 10]

I wish the ecm went further out!

[cooling climate]

Temperatures would surely relate to the February cold spell of 91 on the ECM t216 and 240

charts with maximum struggling to get above -3c by day plus heavy powder snow and

drifting especially on the 216 chart.

This is seriously cold weather.

[TEITS]

This is like something you see in the archives from those historic winters:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Yes the +216/+240 are indeed very rare charts like I said this morning about the GFS 0Z/06Z.

Many call the Greenland HP the holy grail of winter synoptics but in my opinion the holy grail is when you have blocking extending from Siberia all the way across to Greenland. This is what the ECM shows which is why we have E,lys from Siberia to near Canada!

Members take note what you are seeing on tonights ECM is extremely rare and hardly ever seen. These are very much like Feb 1947 and this isn't me ramping just telling it as it is. You simply couldn't draw better synoptics!

[cold snap]

IF the 18z GFS follows this pattern of a early easterly.this forum will go into meltdown tonight.

Net weather team you might have to start calling in the staff.

Unreal output on ECM

Edited January 26, 2010 by cold snap

[ChartViewer]

This is like something you see in the archives from those historic winters:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Alll

All 6 days away and the ECM 192 chart although supporting cold could also sink as well as GFS chart........Very dangerous ground here..............

We have seen this Easterly North Easterly before and it disintegrated before our eyes

Be careful cold lovers..........I only see downgrades

Regards,

CV