Model Output Discussion

[remymartin]

Lets face it people, If you can feel a little excitement about the GFS output today then your in the wrong game-

In the last 20 years we have had true siberian air probaby 4/5 times & on all occasions with perhaps the exception of 91 the air has been mixed out & pushed back after 24 hours-

The Prognosis for the UK is something that will make the Jan cold spellpale into insignificance-

If you take this Chart-

http://91.121.94.83/...nh-0-252.png?18

in 30/40 MPH air

then you are talking sub -20c windchill-

http://www.sat.dunde.../windchill.html

If you add in the prospect of developuing LES in the SE & SW & NE then its about as extreme as the UK can get.....

The icing on the cake is if we get anything close to these charts in the 72 hour timeframe-

S

I would love that to happen steve even watered down by half would do me. Even if it is FI. :blink:

[russh]

Derek IMO is very very good too. I watch his forecasts when I visit my dad and he reminds me of old school forecasters....as in he is willing to 'forecast'....great stuff.

BFTP

our local forcaster (paul Hudson) has said simular about a freeze in feb i have posted a link to his blog on the forth comong cold spell on "weather on the media"

Edited January 28, 2010 by russh

[nick sussex]

The easterly if it came off as shown on the 18z would be a mostly dry affair. Pressure is far too high over the bulk of the UK.

Still, only one run. But really cold uppers in isolation are not enough for snow. We need sufficiently low pressure as well.

OMG are you joking! complaining about that run is akin to winning the lotto and moaning that you only won 5,000 000 euros! It's an amazing run, the key is a strong bitterly cold upper air flow picking up moisture from the North Sea. Upto 180hrs and the ensembles for London show the GFS operational run as one of the milder options!

Edited January 28, 2010 by nick sussex

[SMU]

dont look at the control run........

s

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

dont look at the control run........

s

SHOW ME!!!!

BFTP

[Bartlett Low]

The Prognosis for the UK is something that will make the Jan cold spellpale into insignificance-

Hi, just a IBMY reply here - I will eat my hat if the projected upcoming cold spell makes the January one pale into insignificance here - record low temperatures a few miles from me of -17.6c, 10 inches of snow that hung around for 10 days or more - with a projected pressure of around 1040 and an easterly I can't see anything close to the January spell happening for this region.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

OMG are you joking! complaining about that run is akin to winning the lotto and moaning that you only won 5,000 000 euros! It's an amazing run, the key is a strong bitterly cold upper air flow picking up moisture from the North Sea. Upto 180hrs and the ensembles for London show the GFS operational run as one of the milder options!

Took the words out my mouth . You dont get better than these . How can ones possibly moan , and say they look dry ?

For the 400th time its the trend we look for not detail .

[Snowyowl9]

February 1991 -15c or below upper air.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910207.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00219910207.gif

GFS -15 upper air into the SE as the easterly gets cut off on this run.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2881.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2882.png

[SMU]

SHOW ME!!!!

BFTP

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-240.png?

& one for the archives-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-8-1-336.png?18 alpine skiing up box hill-

S

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

February 1991 -15c or below upper air.

http://www.wetterzen...00119910207.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00219910207.gif

GFS -15 upper air into the SE as the easterly gets cut off on this run.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2881.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2882.png

Them charts look remarkebly similar at this range really

[Cloud 10]

one for the SE :blink:

[Lewis]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-240.png?

& one for the archives-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-8-1-336.png?18 alpine skiing up box hill-

S

All this "alpine skiing" armageddon, and to see it come from you Steve...

Its way out in FI, and it never gets closer in time frame, it just keeps getting pushed further and further into FI!

Would be nice to discuss the current models in reliable time frame. It's dead in here, why? because it might aswell be called the FI thread.

[karyo]

The 18z ensembles are remarkable!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Karyo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-240.png?

& one for the archives-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-8-1-336.png?18 alpine skiing up box hill-

S

some of the charts in FI are truely remarkable.Those in the SE especially must be PRAYING they come off b/c

there is the potential for FEET of snow if any of these recent gfs operationals come off.

As steve said alpine skiing in the SE if the control for example comes off.

I really hope we get the icing on the cake , i hope people like tamara neil south Steve murr etc hit the jackpot

this time.

we need the link between the Az ores high and the scandy high,the big question is will the atlantic prevent it?

[Let_it_snow]

The 18z ensembles are remarkable!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Karyo

Amazing the mean does not get above -5 for the whole run....im scared :unsure:

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100128/18/t850Norfolk.png

Edited January 28, 2010 by Let_it_snow

[Upgrade]

Them charts look remarkebly similar at this range really

good grief. it's almost the same date as well. 8 Feb. won't be of course, but ( i can feel myself groaning here) the parallels to 91 are striking. maybe it will even exceed 91?

[chionomaniac]

The good thing about this run is that the evolution fits in with the teleconnective background signals. Still things could change but it looks like the seagulls are gathering around a house in Peterborough.

[Weather-history]

Would be nice to discuss the current models in reliable time frame.

Define reliable time frame.

72hr? 96hrs? 120hr? 144hr?

Too easy to make such comments, not easy to define though.....

Edited January 28, 2010 by Mr_Data

[chris78]

Hi, just a IBMY reply here - I will eat my hat if the projected upcoming cold spell makes the January one pale into insignificance here - record low temperatures a few miles from me of -17.6c, 10 inches of snow that hung around for 10 days or more - with a projected pressure of around 1040 and an easterly I can't see anything close to the January spell happening for this region.

agreed -10 here 15 miles from the coast...more snow than there has been for 30 years, I cant see that again in my lifetime never mind twice in a winter

[Altostratus]

The 18z ensembles are remarkable!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Karyo

Yes there are some pretty special runs in that ensemble suite – quite a few go for full undercutting resulting in blizzards. A long way to go yet, but nice eye candy nonetheless.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The good thing about this run is that the evolution fits in with the teleconnective background signals. Still things could change but it looks like the seagulls are gathering around a house in Peterborough.

:unsure:

I hope to goodness it comes off C we have the cold pool in place,all we need is a bit of luck and its a direct hit.

i pray the atlantic allows this.

all eys on 120h to 144h in the morning,lets hope ecm starts playing ball with the op runs.

[ribster]

Would be nice to discuss the current models in reliable time frame. It's dead in here, why? because it might aswell be called the FI thread.

I get tired of hearing this, its not called the reliable time frame model discussion. The models go out to 384, and I for one, enjoy reading the discussion of them. Anyone with a modicum of common sense knows that they may or may not come off, although personally I think things are looking very promising.

If you want serious debate of 'the reliable time frame', and even that is open to interpretation (at times we would only be talking about 48 hours!), I think you are in the wrong place....

[chionomaniac]

The 18z ensembles are remarkable!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Karyo

They are starting to look like the ensembles for last Feb and we all know what happened then!

However I do think that this MMW will play out differently.

[weather eater]

Define reliable time frame.

72hr? 96hrs? 120hr? 144hr?

Too easy to make such comments, not easy to define though.....

Most certainly not 198hrs plus.

[Snowyowl9]

Them charts look remarkebly similar at this range really

February 1991 had an intense cold pool but a pool it was and hit the jackpot.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00219910205.gif

If this GFS comes off and keeps the east flow going all the way the upper air just east is down to below -20c.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2642.png